Tasmania is at risk of losing its reputation as a clean energy leader, with a new report revealing the state’s renewable energy generation could drop to just 66% by 2030—down from nearly 100% in recent years.

The States of the Transition report, commissioned by Australia’s conservation councils, which included Environment Tasmania, paints a concerning picture of Tasmania’s energy future. It warns that rising electricity demand, coupled with sluggish investment in new renewable infrastructure, means the state is no longer on track to meet its legislated renewable energy targets.

“Tasmania has been over-reliant on its ageing hydropower assets for far too long, and thus it has failed to prepare the state’s electricity mix for the future impacts of climate change and drought,”

said James Overington, CEO of Environment Tasmania.

“Diversifying the state’s renewable energy mix is now critical. As part of this mix, Tasmania’s government should invest significantly in the roll-out of small-scale renewable energy systems and storage which will also help build social licence behind Tasmania’s energy transition.”

The report’s findings contrast sharply with Tasmania’s previously celebrated status as a clean energy frontrunner, primarily due to its historic reliance on hydropower.

While the state had long been seen as a national success story, the report indicates a lack of preparation for future challenges—particularly those posed by climate change, increasing demand and drought conditions.

One of the report’s key criticisms is Tasmania’s low uptake of rooftop solar power, which is the lowest in the nation.

Rooftop solar could play a major role in Tasmania achieving its legislated goal of producing 150% of its electricity needs from renewables by 2030, while also reducing the need for large-scale infrastructure investment. Prioritising distributed energy like rooftop solar would not only help meet targets but could lower costs and provide direct benefits to households and communities.

The report also calls for a shift in how renewable projects are planned and approved. It stresses that Tasmania’s energy transition must be fast and fair, delivering tangible benefits to local communities and protecting nature. The report also says that there are currently no renewable energy projects under construction in Tasmania.

“Tasmania’s government must play an active role in accelerating the deployment of renewable energy projects whilst ensuring the roll-out of renewable energy infrastructure enhances nature and provides tangible benefits to local communities,”

said Maddie McShane, Energy and Climate Campaigner at Environment Tasmania.

“Detailed spatial planning, clear ‘no go’ zones and comprehensive community consultation will be key to delivering a sustainable energy transition in Tasmania.”

What the report doesn’t mention, however, is that last year, it was reported that Tasmania still imported more than 30% of its energy from mainland Australia, generated by fossil fuels (gas and coal), undermining its clean energy aspirations even further.

With just five years remaining until 2030, the report serves as a wake-up call. Without urgent and strategic action, Tasmania may not only miss its energy targets but also forfeit its leadership status in Australia’s transition to clean, renewable energy.