There are a lot of claims and counter-claims in the Australian gun control debate in the wake of the Bondi terrorist attack, but what does the data say on the risks posed to the community by firearm owners?
Licensed gun owners are significantly more likely than the average homicide-capable person of committing homicide with a firearm, not necessarily because they’re worse people, but rather mainly because having a highly lethal weapon at their disposal makes them far more likely to use such a weapon to perpetrate a violent crime than if they had to acquire one first.
In the period in which there is relevant data available (mid-1997 to mid-2006), firearm license holders made up an average of roughly 5% of the homicide-capable population, but around 14% of firearm homicide offenders.
On 1 July 2001, there were 764,518 licensed firearm holders in Australia – according to AIC published data: https://www.aic.gov.au/sites/
Homicide data:
AIC published study covering 1 July 1997 to 30 June 1999: https://www.aic.gov.au/sites/
117 identified gun-homicide offenders, of which 11 were licensed shooters. 11 offenders used a registered firearm.
NHMP annual reports:
2000: https://www.aic.gov.au/sites/
44 identified gun-homicide offenders, of which 12 were licensed shooters. 11 offenders used a registered firearm.
2001: https://www.aic.gov.au/sites/
68 identified gun-homicide offenders, of which 10 were licensed shooters. 6 offenders used a registered firearm.
2002: https://www.aic.gov.au/sites/
48 identified gun-homicide offenders, of which 5 were licensed shooters. 4 offenders used a registered firearm.
2003: https://www.aic.gov.au/sites/
44 identified gun-homicide offenders, of which 7 were licensed shooters. 6 offenders used a registered firearm.
2004: https://www.aic.gov.au/sites/
46 identified gun-homicide offenders, of which 5 were licensed shooters. 2 offenders used a registered firearm.
2005: https://www.aic.gov.au/sites/
29 identified gun-homicide offenders, of which 6 were licensed shooters. 5 offenders used a registered firearm.
2006: https://www.aic.gov.au/sites/
39 identified gun-homicide offenders, of which 5 were licensed shooters. 4 offenders used a registered firearm.
Total, 1 July 1997 to 30 June 2006:
435 identified gun-homicide offenders, of which 61 were licensed shooters. 49 offenders used a registered firearm.
National Homicide Monitoring Program (NHMP) data quality standards: https://www.aic.gov.au/sites/
Subsequent NHMP reports reduced the level of detail and eventually stopped publishing the number of licensed firearm owners among homicide offenders and the number of offenders who used a registered firearm, while repeatedly asserting that firearm owners make up a minority of firearm homicides, completely ignoring their over-representation (around 5% of the homicide-capable population, 14% of firearm homicide offenders).
The data that is available not only contradicts claims that licensed firearm owners are virtually never involved in firearm homicide, but it also completely turns it on its head.
Mathew Munro.
