The latest EMRS poll on state voting intentions show the Liberal vote plunging to 29%.
The lost vote is likely being scooped up mainly by independents.
The pollsters believe results also show that the controversial Macquarie Point stadium project is becoming a major drag on Liberal popularity.
They also observed that “the movement in votes from the Liberals to ‘independents’ suggest that Labor’s ability to capitalise on this is also being held back by their support for the stadium.”
Labor Leader Dean Winter has also been unable to make any inroads on Jeremy Rockliff as preferred Premier.
See the EMRS poll results and commentary below.
Media release – Enterprise Marketing and Research Services (EMRS), 20 May 2025
Liberal vote falls to lowest since 2009 amid stadium debate
Support for the Tasmanian Liberal Government has fallen to a 16-year low amid a surge in the proposed Macquarie Point stadium issue, according to the Enterprise Marketing and Research Services (EMRS) May State Voting intentions survey.
The poll shows support for the Liberal Party at 29 per cent (down 5), Labor 31 (up 1), Greens 14 per cent (up 1), JLN 6 (down 2) and independents 17 (up 5).
This is the lowest vote for the Liberal Party since May 2009. It is also the first time that Labor has been ahead of the Liberals since the same time period, May 2009.
The decline in the Liberal vote is the greatest in the north west of the state, recording 26 per cent in the south, a 2 per cent drop, 30 per cent in the north an 8 per cent drop, and a staggering 10 per cent drop to 34 per cent in the north-west.
Supporting the thesis that the decline in the Government’s vote is driven significantly by the proposed Macquarie Point stadium, the stadium has jumped from just 2 per cent to 13 per cent as the most important issue to influence voters, tied with cost of living (also 13 per cent) and behind only health (21 per cent).
In better news for the Government, Premier Jeremy Rockliff (44 =) widened his lead over Dean Winter (32, -2) as preferred Premier.
However, Mr Rockliff’s net favourability declined further to +6 (-4) compared to Dean Winter +5 (-1). Mr Winter continues to have a very high (24 per cent, – 3) “never heard of” rating.
“It seems clear the proposed Macquarie Point stadium has become a serious drag on the Liberal vote”, Mary Massina, Managing Director of EMRS said.
“At the same time, the movement in votes from the Liberals to ‘independents’ suggest that Labor’s ability to capitalise on this is also being held back by their support for the stadium.”
The survey was conducted from 13th – 17th May 2025, 1,000 Tasmanian registered voters were interviewed, and responses weighted to reflect the Tasmanian adult voting population. A sample of this size provides a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
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Ted Mead
May 23, 2025 at 11:53
With monotonous regularity it seems that Tasmanians are entertained every week by yet another dramatic scene to the Hobart stadium pantomime. Constantly dismissive, with underhanded subterfuge, the incumbent government appears hell-bent on the state’s financial ruin in acquiescence to the AFL’s agenda. Regardless of the polls, and the Liberals’ decline in popularity, the stadium debacle rolls on.
If the Spirit of Tasmanian saga wasn’t enough evidence of ineptitude, the Macquarie point stadium project attests to how the island is being run by a fractious kakistocracy* whereby both the Liberals’ and Labor find themselves facing one zugs
wang** after another.
Jeremy Rockliff must be in pure disbelief that his fascist party is still in governance as votes of No Confidence go idle. Meanwhile Dean Winter has failed to increase his own personal popularity as preferred leader, and has become completely incapable of holding the Liberals accountable in any form.
Tasmania has a long history of polarising sentiment through contentious developments. The question remains on how low the Liberals’ popularity will slump before major cracks open beyond repair.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
* Kakistocracy:
Government by the least suitable or competent citizens of a state.
** Zugswang:
The necessity of moving or having to make a move when it is to one’s disadvantage.
— www
Roderick
May 23, 2025 at 17:38
Ted Mead –
The late Leonard Cohen, author, singer and poet, once said “There is a crack in everything; that’s how the light gets in”.
Tasmanian politics has been cracked for decades but there is no evidence that the state’s politicians are seeing the light. In fact I believe they exist in a bleak darkness, unwilling and unable to see the light at all.
Tasmania deserves much more than this. The voters really need to wake up.