Report – International Energy Agency, 10 October 2024

Renewables 2024: analysis and forecasts to 2030

A comprehensive, country-level analysis tracking progress towards global energy targets, based on current policies and market developments, this report provides forecasts for the deployment of renewable energy technologies in electricity, transport and heat to 2030, while also exploring key challenges facing the industry and identifying barriers that are preventing faster growth.

Global renewable capacity is expected to grow by 2.7 times by 2030, surpassing countries’ current ambitions by nearly 25%, but still falls short of meeting the targets set at the COP28 UN climate conference. In order to triple renewable capacity, governments need to intensify efforts to integrate renewables into power grids.

In addition to its detailed market analysis and forecasts, the report examines key developments for the sector including policy trends driving deployment, solar PV and wind manufacturing, the costs of renewable technologies and system integration of renewables.

Key points

  • Australia is expected to add more than 52GW of renewable power capacity over 2024-30, with 57% of the country’s electricity generation coming from renewable sources in 2030.
  • Australia is targeting an 82% share of renewable sources in nationwide electricity generation by 2030.
  • Solar photovoltaic is set to account for 80% of the growth in renewable energy capacity to 2030.
  • Despite recent supply chain and macroeconomic challenges, the wind sector is expected to recover.
  • Hydrogen remains a negligible driver for new renewable capacity growth.
  • 70 countries, accounting for 80% of global renewable power capacity, are estimated to reach or surpass their renewable energy targets for 2030.
  • China is set to cement its position as the global renewables leader, accounting for 60% of the expansion in global capacity to 2030.
  • The strong pace of global progress on renewables expansion signals an opportunity for countries to announce enhanced ambitions in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions due in 2025.
  • Large untapped renewables potential in emerging and developing economies can be realised if policies improve.
  • Renewable fuels are essential to energy transitions, but growth is lagging behind.

Read the full report here: Renewables 2024: analysis and forecasts to 2030.