At the end of a difficult year for most Australian households, with rising costs almost across the board, interest rate rises in February, March, May, June and November, soaring rents and uninspiring wage growth, Christmas spending is not expected to be exuberant. So far Australians are seeking out less expensive brands that say quality to those who receive their gifts.
In October, the Australian Retailers Association (ARA) in conjunction with Roy Morgan, predicted Australians would spend $66.8 billion between November and Christmas Eve. This is only 0.1 per cent more than last year, despite big rises in the prices in both goods and services Australia-wide. In fact, food spending was tipped to make up the biggest piece of spending, $26.7 billion of the overall spend, mostly due to price increases.
Those who didn’t get a large chunk of their Christmas shopping done during the Black Friday-Cyber Monday sales period seem to either have no FOMO or belong to that rarefied set of Australians without money worries on their mind. More than 40% of retailers this year began their Black Friday promotions at least one to two weeks early, with some continuing into December, and overall sales increases of 10-25% were reported. The Australian Retailers Association (ARA) had predicted in early November that Australian shoppers would spend $6.36bn across the four days between Black Friday and Cyber Monday, up 3% from last year.
Household spending has grown by 4.8 per cent through the year to August, figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show, but ongoing high inflation and higher interest rates have forced shoppers to focus on essentials over discretionary goods.
South Australia and ACT are set to record the biggest growth in sales on last year (up 1.2%), followed by Tasmania (up 0.7%), Western Australia (up 0.5%), Northern Territory (up 0.3%) and Victoria (up 0.2%).
Spending in Queensland (down 0.3%) and New South Wales (down 0.2%) is tipped to decline. Consumers in New South Wales are forecast to spend $21.1 billion in the Christmas period, with Victorians to spend $17.1 billion.
| Category | 2022 Pre-Christmas Sales ($ millions) | 2023 Pre-Christmas Sales forecasts ($ millions) | Growth % vs. 2022 |
| Food | $26,168 | $26,790 | 2.4% |
| Household Goods | $11,405 | $11,039 | -3.2% |
| Clothing | $5,671 | $5,624 | -0.8% |
| Department Stores | $3,543 | $3,646 | 2.9% |
| Other Retailing | $10,173 | $10,344 | 1.7% |
| Hospitality | $9,780 | $9,373 | -4.2% |
| TOTAL | $66,741 | $66,815 | 0.1% |
| State | 2022 Pre-Christmas Sales ($ millions) | 2023 Pre-Christmas Sales forecasts ($ millions) | Growth % vs. 2022 |
| NSW | $21,126 | $21,090 | -0.2% |
| Victoria | $17,101 | $17,134 | 0.2% |
| Queensland | $13,758 | $13,719 | -0.3% |
| Western Australia | $7,359 | $7,399 | 0.5% |
| South Australia | $4,241 | $4,294 | 1.2% |
| Tasmania | $1,330 | $1,339 | 0.7% |
| Northern Territory | $596 | $598 | 0.3% |
| ACT | $1,228 | $1,243 | 1.2% |
| TOTAL | $66,741 | $66,815 | 0.1% |
Retailers say online sales on Black Friday were 10-25% up on last year, with the shopping event becoming bigger than Boxing Day.
Michael Mann
December 16, 2023 at 16:53
In all my time I have never witnessed queues like those on Saturday 15th December at the Big W checkouts!
Simon Warriner
December 19, 2023 at 11:11
How much of that queueing would be due to a lack of checkout staff, and a refusal by customers to perform that task, unpaid, by using self-service checkouts, only then to be insulted with the requirement to submit to a bag check on the way out of the store?
Progress? Only until the shrinkage occurs in the profit cell on the spreadsheet!