An analytical method that could have correctly predicted 95% of seat results in 2019 says that there is likely to be no change in the five Tasmanian federal seats at this general election.
Google Search Volume Data used in conjunction with Google News analysis could have been used to correctly predict 143 out of 151 seats in the 2019 federal election.
A high correlation was found between the amount of searches a candidate’s name received in April 2019 and the eventual winner of the popular vote.
The same methodology has been applied to 2022 data to predict the winners of the popular vote for all 151 electorates; suggesting 15 independent candidates will be successful on election day resulting in a hung parliament.
A full list of predictions, accompanying data sets and commentary available via https://www.jaredbennett.com.au/2022/05/16/using-google-search-data-to-predict-the-australian-federal-election-result/
Because Google data is released monthly in arrears, April is the last month for which data is available. The resulting weakness in his method is that it does not take into account the important last three weeks of the campaign.
The author, Jared Bennett, is an SEO (search engine optimisation) specialist based in Brisbane who has previously had similar search data research published in both national and international publications.
“With opinion polls coming under heavy criticism for their inaccurate prediction of a sweeping Labor victory in the 2019 federal election, I thought I’d test whether Google search data could be a viable alternative for predicting the outcome of the 2022 election,” said Bennett.
“Checking the search volume for each federal candidate’s name via Google’s keyword planner tool for the April 2019 period, revealed a strong correlation between the number of searches for a candidate and the eventual winner of the popular vote. In simpler terms; whoever’s name was searched for the most in Google generally went on to receive the most votes on election day.”
On the raw numbers, search volume data predicted the popular vote winners of 137 out of 151 seats – however when combined with qualitative research to remove disambiguation of candidates who share the same name as other famous individuals and outlier results created by headline generating antics of controversial candidates (checked via Google News results for April 2019) – the data predicted 143 out of 151 seats – equating to a 95% level of accuracy.
“This could likely be improved upon by someone with a much stronger understanding of the political landscape than myself,” he added.
He also noted that for some candidates data was being withheld by Google, and he was unsure as the reasons why.
