SWITZER DAILY: How will the Tasmanian Election Play Out?
by Malcolm McKerras
With voting already under way for the Tasmanian election on 1 May, the time has come for me to make my predictions. They begin with my giving the results at the two elections won for the Liberal Party by former premier Will Hodgman. On 15 March 2014 it was 15 Liberal, seven Labor and three for the Greens. On 3 March 2018, it was 13 Liberal, 10 Labor and two for the Greens. My prediction for this election is 14 Liberal, nine Labor and two for the Greens. In other words, Premier Peter Gutwein will have a good victory, better than that of Hodgman in 2018 but not as good as that of Hodgman in 2014.
Taking the individual electoral divisions one-by-one, the Liberal Party’s vote will vary from north west to south east. The north west Braddon result will be four Liberal and only one for Labor. Bass and Lyons will each be three Liberal and two Labor, but the Hobart-based Clark and Franklin results will each be one for the Greens, and two each Liberal and Labor. The Greens get their seats only in public sector dominated cities like those of Canberra and Hobart.
