Tasmanian Times

The individual has always had to struggle to keep from being overwhelmed by the tribe. If you try it, you will be lonely often, and sometimes frightened. No price is too high for the privilege of owning yourself. ~ Friedrich Nietzsche

The individual has always had to struggle to keep from being overwhelmed by the tribe. If you try it, you will be lonely often, and sometimes frightened. No price is too high for the privilege of owning yourself. ~ Friedrich Nietzsche

Economy

The Verdict: MLC for Huon and Rosevears

Welcome to my coverage of the 2014 Legislative Council election counts. There will be live comments tonight through the count. There will be updates and analysis through following days as well. Polls close 6 pm. First figures may appear around 6:30-ish and based on past experience most booths will be in by around 8-8:30. If Rosevears is close we may have to wait for the large number of early prepoll votes to be counted (I think this will happen on the night) and if it’s very close we’ll have up to 10 days of postals.

All my pre-coverage including lengthy discussion of the Rosevears campaign can be seen in my 2014 LegCo Guide ( HERE ). The Huon count presents a common LegCo scenario in which one candidate has an enormous profile advantage and is opposed by a number of mostly low-profile opponents. It’s a boring scenario, it’s been a boring campaign, and I expect Peter Hodgman to win his old seat back easily. He should be taken to preferences but it may not even make it to a final two; if it does I think it will be 54:46 or greater.

Rosevears however is something new and different: a determined effort by a Liberal Party basking in the glow of its massive state election win to blast out a hostile high-profile incumbent by branding him as a closet Green based on his voting record, complete with TV ads and robocalls. I’ve been unable to find any useful basis for projecting this contest objectively. I will say that every time this week I have thought it is right on the line, there’s then been some new small piece of apparent evidence in the incumbent’s favour. So at this time (midday) I have a slight intuitive leaning to the incumbent holding, but I say that with a very low level of confidence. With the little we really know about a contest of this type, it’s possible either candidate could win easily.

My comments will be updated in the main post with the most recent comments below the line so refresh your browser frequently during the counts for latest comments.

Read the blow by blow on Dr Bonham’s website, Dr Kevin Bonham, HERE, where you can comment …

• Rosevears: CALLED. Finch (IND) re-elected. 7:46 pm: The magnitude of the drubbing in Rosevears is clear with all booths in and Finch winning the lot. His current margin is a whopping 60:40 and that’s not going to change very much. … It appears that the Liberals’ voting-record-based attack on Finch almost totally failed, and while the risky nature of their tactics may have something to do with that, there’s a message that (to my surprise) voters just aren’t voting on the issues. Kerry Finch it seems, like Andrew Wilkie, is seen as having a kind of integrity that the parties of the left are seen as having sold down the drain during the last parliament, if not before. The strength of the Liberal win at the state election now doesn’t look like a positive endorsement for the ideas they went to the voters with – only a rejection of the Labor, Green and PUP alternatives, and not for what they campaigned on in the first two cases so much as for trashing their brands by “selling out”. Tonight’s result hardly speaks wonders for the Liberals’ mandate.

• Huon: Hodgman (Lib) leading narrowly on primaries but in serious danger from Armstrong (IND) or possibly Bell (IND) on preferences. • Huon: Hodgman (Lib) leading narrowly on primaries but in serious danger from Armstrong (IND) or possibly Bell (IND) on preferences. 7:37 pm: Good news is that in Rosevears postals are being counted already, which means we’ll hopefully get the already-received postals in Huon tonight. The cutup is then likely to be attempted tomorrow and they might be able to get a fair way up the tree without stalling, since the order of exclusion of Ruzicka and Dillon might not be clear but also shouldn’t matter. 7:26 pm: Hodgman has the lead back in Huon but it’s a meaningless one. The smokie in the Huon count on current primaries is Jimmy Bell. Bell is not far behind Smith. If Bell can be over Smith after the preferences of Lane, Ruzicka and Dillon, Smith’s preferences will flow to Bell and put him over Armstrong. Smith is less likely to win than Bell because conservative preferences from Armstrong won’t help her. We’re not going to know the result of this one tonight.

• Ed: This item is now open for comment … that is, general comment on results. Comments relating specifically to Dr Bonham will not be published; other than on his website

Rodney Croome: Finch re-election shows voters back politicians who back marriage equality

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21 Comments

21 Comments

  1. Basil Fitch

    May 11, 2014 at 7:26 pm

    Correction….Armstrong shat in 57% to 43% Hodgman
    Approx. 2,500 votes – not 4 votes!

    Is Armstrong a Liberal? In interview he said he knew all liberals. Surely not another Harriss?
    Basil

  2. Robin Charles Halton

    May 7, 2014 at 4:17 am

    #17, Ah ha, Armstrong almost a perfect match for former Independent Paul Harriss who is now Minister for Forests.

  3. TGC

    May 6, 2014 at 7:50 pm

    #18 probably preferred a Green “Independent”!

  4. John Biggs

    May 6, 2014 at 5:52 pm

    17 Armstrong “independent”?

  5. Robin Charles Halton

    May 5, 2014 at 12:38 am

    So what is the problem folks, the Huon got their Independent, Robert Armstrong who beat Liberal Peter Hodgman by 4 votes.

    All the usual whingers should be more than happy that the Liberals did not win this seat, ha ha ha.

  6. Basil Fitch

    May 5, 2014 at 12:15 am

    Tas. Electoral Commission’s website just confirmed Armstrong has been elected to Huon seat in LegCo. Excellent outcome 2/2 Independents.
    Keeping our House of Review as it was intended.
    Basil

  7. bob hawkins

    May 4, 2014 at 10:01 pm

    I see its Hodgman and Armstrong neck-and-neck for LegCo, with only Liz Smith’s preferences to be distributed. It’s so rare a real-estate man and a former real-estate man find themselves at the top of any poll. It surely says something about the taste of the Huon.

  8. TGC

    May 4, 2014 at 8:14 pm

    #9 the ‘government’ sitting in the Senate should have the guts to block Supply and thus force an election. They could go to the Governor-General and ask him to withdraw TA’s authority- oh. no! that’s been done before.

  9. TGC

    May 4, 2014 at 8:10 pm

    #11 How does Kerry Finch represent those in his ‘electorate’ who support a pulp mill being built in another ‘electorate’ the voters in which strongly support such a mill.

  10. Basil Fitch

    May 4, 2014 at 7:58 pm

    During the cold southerly gale of Sunday(an ‘ol-timer once told me nothing good comes from the south except the road north!), an up-date of the LegCo elections came on the wireless, which brought me to contemplate the pulp mill political scalps.

    Firstly Georgetown Council gave tacit support for a pulp mill in its backyard…..West Tamar & L’ton Councils also. All 3 had no idea what was proposed, until the ‘shat’ hit the fan and truth was finally emerging.

    As a result of this, next council elections were fought on ‘anti’ versus ‘pro’ mill candidates. The ‘anti’ pulp mill candidates won seats and thus the support was reversed.

    In LCC Mayor Ivan Dean (avid supporter), lost his Mayoralship and Albert Van Zetten was elected Mayor.

    Next election Federal Michael Ferguson lost his seat to Jodie Campbell, in Bass, and admitted the pulp mill cost him his seat after 1 term. Bass has become a 1 term seat, Campbell- Lyons and Nikolic Who is next inline to lose his seat as he is ‘pro’ mill and forestry.

    Next Mr. 17% Paul Lennon tapped on shoulder by
    Brother Polley and Aird, so resigned…..followed by Bartlett, Giddings and now Green on hit list.
    Wightman also lost seat in a very volatile Bass.

    Now Don Morris, Lib., lost to Finch, Independent, 61% to 39% (similar to 2008 with figures Finch 72%
    against 28%). Both elections were a true referendum over the pulp mill.

    Numerous polls have been taken State- Aust -wide
    (Galaxy). In the North all have resulted in ‘anti’ pulp mill support. Add in the numerous rally’s, (5000-10,000 attendances), $1,000’s collected fighting fund, certainly no social licence ever likely, it would be hard to imagine some ‘nut’ proposing such a mill now, with many thousands prepared to stand shoulder to shoulder against it.

    As for Hodgman’s (& Abetz’s) proposed legislation to ‘jail protesters), they had better start building another 10 jails. Just when are the ‘dumb b…….s’ going to wake up?

    The Bobster, Amos – Jeffries, gone, where does it end? Remember Lennon wanted majority gov, he got it (14) now (7), why? There will never be FSC while such opposition exists – just like the mill.
    Basil

  11. Martin Hay

    May 4, 2014 at 2:54 pm

    Congrats to Kerry, always a fair minded independent thinker who represents his electorate with honesty, motivation and respect.
    Libs, absolute power is your hunger and so, so counterproductive to society.

  12. William Boeder

    May 4, 2014 at 2:30 am

    Yeah good stuff hey Basil, this McQuestin finger-printed floppo by the Liberal candidates doth resonate quite sweetly in the Rosevears electorate, also it is well in accord with the people who gamely sought to retain their people-respecting representative, Kerry Finch.

    All that negativity that seeped from the very skin-pores of McQuestin did not serve him and his Liberal party candidates at all well, ‘he reminds me personally so much so of that Abbott loving Abetzian scoundrel.

    Farewell to the Liberal-party-powered McQuestin and his questing’s.

  13. Basil Fitch

    May 3, 2014 at 11:01 pm

    Latest poll….phoney Tony & cocky Hockey on skid row. Labor 52% Liberal 48% and Greens jumped to 15%, look out here they come and keep an eye on the Greens in NSW.

    Greens ,Pup and Independents will block all these nasty budget rip-offs. Lets have a double-dissolution immediately. God bless the Greens & Pup!! Basil

  14. TGC

    May 3, 2014 at 7:55 pm

    Good to note that #4 has recovered from his huge dismay at the outcome of the House of Assembly poll and Rosevears has given him something to smile about …

  15. TGC

    May 3, 2014 at 7:49 pm

    Thanks #5 it must have slipped from my grasp. but fortunately you caught it before it shattered into pieces.

  16. Carol Rea

    May 3, 2014 at 6:03 pm

    Peter Hodgman actually said this “”We’ve now got Vanessa Goodwin and Leonie Hiscutt and hopefully myself – along with a couple of other Legislative Councillors who have an affinity with the Liberal Party – that’s a nice little Liberal Party vote bloc,” ABC

  17. john Hayward

    May 3, 2014 at 4:54 pm

    No, Trev, #1, you don’t grasp democracy.

    Kerry Finch was elected to represent the perspectives firstly of those who voted for him.

    John Hayward

  18. Basil Fitch

    May 3, 2014 at 2:49 pm

    Kerry Finch’s resounding victory is another clear referendum over the pulp mill. In 2008 Kerry stood against the pulp mill and his opponent stood for a pulp mill. Kerry won 72% to 28%.

    This election no different, and considering the dirty, filthy, rotten campaign run by McQuestion and the Libs, the anti-pulp mill brigade won out handsomely. When are these pro pulp mill politicians, and their supporters ever going to wake up? Basil

  19. Anne

    May 3, 2014 at 1:57 pm

    I rather think the take-home message for Mr Morris and the Liberal Party, is that spending lots of money on a negative campaign designed to discredit a popular and effective Independent, such as Kerry Finch, and assume that’s all that would be necessary, demonstrates treating voters with contempt is a waste. Further proof – if we needed it – that the Liberals haven’t a clue about the value of money and budgeting in the world the majority of us inhabit. The real one in other words. People don’t like to be taken for fools, neither do they appreciate politicians, (or would-be politicians parachuted in from elsewhere for the occasion) thinking their vote can be taken for granted.

  20. Karl Stevens

    May 3, 2014 at 1:02 pm

    TGC 1. Minor parties and independents also hold a ‘very clear’ balance of power in the Senate and can block anything Abbott brings on. So whats your point?

  21. TGC

    May 3, 2014 at 1:35 am

    Congrats to Kerry Finch- very convincing win- and hopefully he will observe over the next 6 years his own declaration -in a snap intervieww as he cast his own vote- ‘win or loose, he’d accept that result- it’s democracy’ -given a very clear Liberal win for the House of Assembly.

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