Arithmetically we are still in a hung parliament situation because no one bloc has achieved the magic 18 seat requirement to gain the government benches.
The Tasmanian Liberals only managed to gain 14 seats at the 23 March state election but secured the 3 JLN members’ support. This means 17 seats, one short of forming a minority-led government.
I prematurely called the JLN three as kingmakers.
They hastily nailed themselves to the mast of a confidence and supply agreement with Premier Jeremy Rockliff in what the eminent constitutional lawyer Anne Twomey described in her 18 minute video as a ‘nothing burger’.
Her conclusion is because this agreement severely circumscribes what the JLN can and cannot do for the next four years in forming a minority government with the Tasmanian Liberals. Yes, the Lambies were truly shorn by Premier Rockliff to the point they cannot advocate for the Tasmanians who voted for them.
The real king-maker is former Labor Leader and now independent MP David O’Byrne from Franklin. He has not yet agreed to be railroaded by Premier Rockliff towards entering into an agreement on confidence and supply.
So technically it was premature for Premier Rockliff to announce his new Cabinet who were sworn in at Government House on 11 April when he had not yet stitched up the 18th seat.
At this time, David O’Byrne has not decided his final position.
Clark independent Kristie Johnston had already indicated that she would not ‘do deals’ with a Rockliff minority government.
The other independent, Braddon’s Craig Garland, confirmed this week that that he is not expecting to strike a deal with Premier Rockliff.
Effectivly last man standing, it is therefore David O’Byrne to decide the fate of governance at the state level in Tasmania for the next four years.
Below are some statistics for him to ponder using Antony Green’s excellent ABC Tasmania Election 2024 analysis.
The 3 independents eventually elected (27,931 votes) outpolled the 3 JLN (23,260).
Liberals secured the largest quantity of votes (127,836). Labor came in second (101,113). The Greens came in third (48,431).
The tasty food for thought is this: if O’Byrne were to add his votes to the Liberal-JLN tally of 151.096 it still would be less than the combined total of the rest (177,475 minus O’Byrnes’ votes).
I make no judgment on whom O’Byrne should support.
But if he fails to support Rockliff, then we still have a hung parliament, not a new Liberal minority government.
Phil na Champassak is a passionate advocate for Tasmania and for small business, and owns The Madsen Boutique Hotel in Penguin. He is a founding director of Switch Tasmania (originally the Cradle Coast Innovation Inc) fostering enterprise facilitation and innovation in a regional context. He was a board member of the Cradle Coast Tourism Executive, the regional tourism organisation for NW Tasmania. Formerly a diplomat and DFAT policy analyst, Phil has worked on trade, aid, public diplomacy, consular, international security and nuclear trade, and bilateral relations with PNG, the US, and NZ, and was DFAT State Director for Tasmania. Prior to that Phil worked for the UN Development Programme in New York, West Africa and PNG. Phil also served as election monitor to the first elections in Cambodia (1992) and South Africa (1994) and was a peace monitor in Bougainville (2002). He has contributed to publications on human rights, election monitoring, and UN issues. Awarded in 2003 an Australian Service Medal.
