Tasmanian Times

The individual has always had to struggle to keep from being overwhelmed by the tribe. If you try it, you will be lonely often, and sometimes frightened. No price is too high for the privilege of owning yourself. ~ Friedrich Nietzsche

The individual has always had to struggle to keep from being overwhelmed by the tribe. If you try it, you will be lonely often, and sometimes frightened. No price is too high for the privilege of owning yourself. ~ Friedrich Nietzsche

Economy

Expect Future Storms To Intensify

*Pic: Image, Flickr, from HERE: The aftermath of Typhoon Haiyan. Tropical storms are expected to get less frequent but fiercer with climate change (Pic: Flickr/Claudio Accheri)

Malcolm Turnbull, says that the LNP is doing everything possible to keep Australians safe in relation to terrorism (ABC, A.M. 4/10/’17). There are risks , but for an individual reasonably remote.

Yet, in relation to anthropogenic climate change the LNP and Queensland Labor government are seeking to increase existential risks through promoting the huge Adani mine and suggesting the need for new coal powered energy plants.

The new coal plants are provided with all sorts of exotic names (e.g. HELE, Carbon Capture and Storage); but, they still void significant amounts of greenhouse gases. Oceans are often not widely discussed in relation to anthropogenic climate change, though they have a significant role in the creation of extreme weather1.

There has been much discussion about the hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria in relation to what influence climate change has had in relation to their ferocity; scientists state that warm Oceans have a great deal of influence on the creation and strength of Tropical storms2.

Kevin Trenberth, one of authors of a new study on Oceans, has stated: “The higher temperatures are driving marine life toward the poles in search of livable habitats, bleaching coral reefs, and causing severe impacts on fisheries and aquacultures. They also contribute to more frequent and intense extreme weather events3.”

Several scientists have stated that a warm Ocean leads to the creation of higher levels of water vapour in the atmosphere.

It is commonly understood that Oceans only gradually build up warmth, or shed warmth slowly in comparison to the atmosphere.

Quote4: “Earth’s temperature is rising, and it isn’t just in the air around us. More than 90 percent of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gas emissions has been absorbed into the oceans that cover two-thirds of the planet’s surface. Their temperature is rising, too, and it tells a story of how humans are changing the planet.”

Satellite5 altimentary displays how sea level is rising; commonsense informs us that water when warmed expands its volume. The point being that a rising sea level is an important factor in leading to worse impacts from storm surges.

Refs …

1. https://insideclimatenews.org/news/03102017/infographic-ocean-heat-powerful-climate-change-evidence-global-warming
2. ibid
3. ibid
4. ibid
5. https://eos.org/opinions/taking-the-pulse-of-the-planet

*Keith Antonysen is retired. He is a keen gardener, photographer, and recreational fisher. The Vietnam War and later the flooding of Lake Pedder created an interest in politics which led to a passion for social justice issues. Currently very concerned about lack of action on climate change. Not a paid up member of any Political Party.

Bob Burton, Editor, CoalWire: The Latest on Coal …

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10 Comments

10 Comments

  1. Keith Antonysen

    October 17, 2017 at 12:12 pm

    Russell, to put it in perspective the latitude of Hobart is 42.5 degrees south, whereas the latitude of southern Ireland is 52 Degrees north.

    The landmass of the Northern Hemisphere is far greater than SH. Ophelia carried sand from the Sahara and smoke from Portugal’s wild fires. Fastnet Island received winds of 119 miles per hour (191.5 kilometres per hour).

  2. Russell

    October 16, 2017 at 5:53 pm

    Cold climate Ireland cops a tropical climate Hurricane.

  3. Kim Peart

    October 12, 2017 at 8:06 am

    Re: 7 ~ As the tragedy of climate change impacts on all future generations, the impact is much greater than 1 in 1.

    As the cruelty of climate change strikes all animals and the future of evolution on Earth, humans stand as the terminator.

    As the criminality of climate change, by the sum of the carbon level alone (#6) could now hold in it the death of the Earth, what court do we take ourselves to for crimes against a living planet?

    If we accepted our role, how we became so vile, how what we are doing could have been avoided, and what we could now do to turn the tide of death that is going to send so much life down the gurgler into extinction, what are we willing to do?

  4. john hayward

    October 11, 2017 at 11:16 pm

    Malcolm’s having trouble picking fights where he has at least a chance of escaping disgrace. An Australian’s chances of being a terrorist victim have been quoted at 1 in 8 million while those of being a climate change victim in the medium term are close to 1 in 1.

    Like Trump himself, Mal should claim to be a “smart guy”.

    John Hayward

  5. Kim Peart

    October 11, 2017 at 12:11 pm

    There is a greater awareness now of the sensitivity of the climate system, of our planet’s life support systems.

    To appreciate what we are in for, we may consider the difference bwtween the last ice age and the millennia leading up to the Industrial Revolution.

    The difference between the two eras is 90 parts per million (ppm) CO2 in the air, a jump from 180 ppm to 270 ppm.

    An additional 90 ppm CO2 was passed in the 1990s.

    CO2 in the air is now going beyond 405 ppm CO2, and increasing by 3 ppm per annum, which is a minimum of 30 ppm per decade, a rate which looks like its accelerating.

    These sums spell a warning a gharstly apocalypse on our horizon, a potential extinction event for humans.

    CO2 works very slowly, but steadily, forcing up the heat, which drives climate change, warming up the oceans, which will melt polar ice.

    Now we see the methane in the Arctic exploding out of the permafrost, leaving huge craters.

    Warmer ocean water reaching the methane hydrates on the ocean floor may see massive and explosive release of this greenhous gas, far more potent than CO2, and it works faster.

    The most ubandant greenhouse gas of all is water vapour, which only increases as the heat goes up.

    So with increasing heat in the sea, and more water in the air, and being way past a CO2 level in the 1990s which may have been quite enough then to melt all the ice on Earth, how serious does anyone want to get?

    I explore these matters in my TT article ~ Vision Drum ~
    http://oldtt.pixelkey.biz/index.php?/article/vision-drum/

    and offer a few suggestions for action.

    See the section ~ A Crisis With Carbon.

    The key action has to be exactly how to extract excess CO2 from the air, which will then come back out of the sea that has absorbed much of it, so it a rather big task.

    Any other chatter is fiddling while the planet smolders, toward burning.

    Once the key problem with CO2 is getting dealt with, globally, then all lesser actions will be relevant.

    I look at the carbon sums, and see the potential of rapid change to a catastrophic future, where we will lose any choice, as Mother Nature goes to war on us, armed to the hilt with weapons too terrible to imagine.

    The window for action is narrow and closing.

    James Lovelock warned of rapid change to a hotter world in 2009 (The Vanishing Face of Gaia, pages 100-120).

    Guy McPherson is warning of less than ten years for humans on Earth.

    I am working on another document at present, a campaign document to be circulated globally, spelling out the only way that I can see to assure our survival, and win back peace with Mother Nature.

    There is a way for everyone, from 9 to 99, to act globally, secure our survival, and win peace with the Earth.

    We will have to get smart, and be quick about it.

    Is anyone interested?

  6. Mark Temby

    October 11, 2017 at 10:45 am

    Thanks Keith, climate change is not as simple as a finite temperature rise. Aspects will surge. More intense tropical lows will inundate greater land masses. These same lows will surge into more temperate climes. Drought will surge across greater areas and for longer periods. The decrease in solar reflection by iced poles will magnify changes. All this and we haven’t touched on the survival of flora and fauna. How will the belts of rainforest or coniferous forests cope with a warming or drying climate? How will sex-temperature linked animals like reptiles cope over the longer term? How will insects like pollinators be affected?

    La la la…

  7. Tony Stone

    October 11, 2017 at 10:41 am

    Just the end of another human era of insanity, this time we have really stuffed the entire planet, instead of just some small areas.

    As usual, everyone is in personal denial, hoping someone else will fix their problems, when nothing will be done. Unless you do it yourself and if you don’t, stiff, you’ll become cannon fodder for change, with no possibility of survival.

    There are a number of scenarios which people are not looking at, the changing of tectonic plates and fault lines, as melting ice redistributes world weight mass.

    It may open up fissures in dormant super volcanoes, releasing more stored energy and deadly gases. We have yet to experience or know what will happen as all the stored methane in permafrost is released, as we continue with pumping toxic gases into the atmosphere relentlessly. Whilst gorging our obese faces on the torture and slaughter of other life. Not a good look, but one that everyone denies and avoids, then heads for their next contaminating junk food hit.

    Then we have the destructive future outcomes from the current women’s movement, destroying families and separating the sexes as fast as they can. purely to satisfy their deranged egos, when this is a time when all the sane logical people of both sexes should be coming together.

    If massive change and sociological collapse occurs which dramatically slows or stops the release of harmful gases along with land and ocean degradation by humans before 2025, some humans may survive.

    If our societies continue as they are beyond 2020, when the crunch comes, the damage we will have done, making it almost impossible for humans and most life to survive.

    Interesting times ahead, it’s already clear the changes are having a big effect on humans Their ideological fantasies are collapsing rapidly and the majority are beginning to psychologically collapse.

    We see this in the growing rise of random sociological violence, growing distrust between the sexes. The blame game being pushed on all and sundry, by deranged ideologues of different insane beliefs.

    When you look at it over all as an observer, it’s easy to see there is nothing positive in human direction, approach and application in life. So the outcome is settled and inevitable.

    We in Tas are one of the very few places on the planet where we could make the necessary changes so we all have good change of getting through the next few decades.

    Nothing will happen, people will complain but when anyone puts forward alternative approaches which would work, everyone crawls back into their ideological hole and looks for answers within what is destroying them, their worldly beliefs. Not much logic or sanity in that approach.

  8. Keith Antonysen

    October 11, 2017 at 10:13 am

    There are numerous comments from scientists about Ocean warming focussing on how the recent major hurricanes in the Caribbean and US were intensified by anthropogenic climate change.
    Here are two references showing impacts of a different nature, coming from two recently published rearch paper, the first is referenced by a surprising source, Forbes.

    Quote:

    “A recent study, building upon previous models of weather patterns in southwest US, found key methods in improving the local climate model by correcting for sea surface temperature.”

    A recently published paper has shown how close data collected from observation and measurement with modelling is.

    Forbes says:

    “By correcting for sea surface temperatures, the model better fits historical data and more robustly predicted an overall decrease in the extent of the North American monsoon.”

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevornace/2017/10/10/california-deadly-fires-drought/#35081fdb5d63

    The other is about the Dotson Ice Shelf in Antarctica being undermined by warm water (warm water is a relative term).

    Quote:

    “A new scientific study published Tuesday has found that warm ocean water is carving an enormous channel into the underside of one of the key floating ice shelves of West Antarctica, the most vulnerable sector of the enormous ice continent.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/10/11/alarming-new-research-finds-that-the-ocean-is-cutting-through-a-key-antarctic-ice-shelf/?utm_term=.07860d695b4e

  9. Mark Temby

    October 11, 2017 at 9:15 am

    People are very good at closing their eyes, sticking their fingers in their ears and singing “la la la” loudly. They are not so good at challenging the status quo.

    There are many scenarios that will threaten mankind on most levels such as economic, social, health, food, water, migration and conflict.

    What will weather do as the poles melt and there is little ice to drive wind and precipitation?

    How will retreating glaciers diminish the great rivers of Eurasia?

    How will rising sea levels drown the vast delta food bowls like the Ganges, Niger and Nile?

    Foolishly some Australians are so short sighted they worry excessively about today’s house prices, immigration, SSM, muslims or asylum seekers. There is little debate about our future energy needs or future proofing our economy. We have a political system that has lost its democratic base through corporate donations seeking a free maintenance of the status quo.

  10. philll Parsons

    October 11, 2017 at 9:00 am

    The Storms of our Grandchildren by Dr James Hansen tells us about the climate dystopia of the future.

    Unfortunately if the voters of today don’t experience it then they don’t take it seriously.

    It will be the regret of the children and grandchildren.

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