Current Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions Pledges Leave Climate Targets In The Red:
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Global emissions will not meet previously recognized targets to avoid danger and with only 2015 to level out emissions and commence their decline the science shows that all life will be endangered. Thank you world leaders. [Peter Boyer also points this glaring failure out in The Mercury Opinion columns: on TT: A failure of wit, will and imagination
Speaking of which the 27SEP editorial sets a false test for the Greens. I may be published but if not here is my comment.
“The Greens have passed the your so called test [Editorial 27SEP]by taking the science and the IPCC recommendations and setting their emission reduction goals to get Australia to play its proper part in avoiding a climate catastrophe.
Under pressure the Labor government raised the range of goals to meet the Greens minimum, but there is no guarantee that the Rudd government will keep the promise it made in Bali.
Continuing to avoid our responsibility not only sets a bad example but endangers all. Whilst there are no jobs on a dead planet there is an awful lot of work avoiding one.”
If you want to do something go to www.350.org and join in on the 24th of October or before. It can be as simple as a visit to the Royal Tasmanian Botanical gardens or the Tasmanian Arboretum and placing a piece of plant material onto an ephemeral scaulpture.
The idea below appeared before Kyoto and essentially follows the same scenario as the deadline set for the Liberals, announce what you know they are going to do anyway as your idea or even as a deadline.
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India and China have flagged taking their own actions outside of a binding agreement putting the pressure back on the US of A to set proper Agenda 1 goals for a successful end to the UNFCCC negotiations in Copenhagen in December.
It’s that or toast. Try this volcanic eruption warning.
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3,000 years overdue and apparently no emergency response plan. And the day after earth quakes to outer Melbourne, mmmm did they know?.
On a more serius longer term note the vulcanologist Bill McQuire has linked sea level change with an increase in volcanic activity. But by then it will only matter to the earth system in its attempt to restore a balance, all the coal mines will have closed and all their jobs will gone.
And what do we have from the British Antarctic Survey?. Land ice melting rates are now at a rate 3 times the previous estimate putting the 91 years to 2100 at an additional 1.27 metres. That is at a global temperature rise of 0.8dC. Rates will grow with a rise to 2dC which our leaders are guaranteeing by not taking the decisions the science requires to avoid danger.
Think I’m on my usual silly rant then read the article from the first link.
Of note is that melting is exceeding snow accumulation ensuring the death of the glaciers so affected.
The Australian has polled a sample of voters to discover a majority want the CPRS/ETS legislation negotiated and not a double dissolution election.
Australians are unlikely to throw out a popular government just because it calls an early election, however, with the rejection of the healthcare funding changes an absolute for the coalition parties methinks the 2 will be joined for a double dissolution election after the February sitting of Parliament.
And the numbers
Shanahan also has an opinion but he and the poll fail to canvass an unrealistic set of amendments to the ETS being put up by the Liberals or indeed that they cannot agree and none appear as Turnbull goes through his leadership death throws.
Indeed, if the party of Menzies cannot coalesce let alone the conservative forces agree the temptation for Labor to go to an election will be as strong as for those who want to see Turnbull go. A defeated leader of a divided party, given Turnbull’s personality traits, will stay how long?
For river deltas it’s a double whammy. As sea level rises they are sinking under the effects of human activity.
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Oceans do more acid sooner.
Senior Writer with The Age Ross Gittins knows stupid when he sees it
And heres the science to show how we are preforming against 7 limits
I am sure readers have watched the argie bargie between the 2 old parties as they manoeuvre to agree to do industries bidding and endanger us all.
For example the coal industry gibbers on about lost jobs when really their concern is profit. The mining industry shed 12,500 jobs in the three months to April. Has industry led a nationwide song and dance about that?.
But of course they make all sorts of claims about coal industry job losses in a transition to a low Carbon economy making light of the new jobs in the emerging industries as they attempt to throw their power to endanger everything around the so called halls of power.
For example, the Australian Coal Association has engaged Noel Lawrence, the designer of the Kevin 07 campaign to produce a campaign to attack the government in marginal seats. The coal industry continues to seek more financial concessions from the government.
It certainly is proving a devil of a problem. With only a month to go before parliament resumes Turnbull is yet to show he has party support for any amendments to the government’s proposed CPRS/ETS legislation.
Turnbull has not won over the Australian people to believing he is a necessary replacement of Rudd and the Liberals and Nationals show they are out of touch with public opinion and reality by behaving as the Stupid party when it comes to the climate.
It’s all well and good to be conservative and to believe in free enterprise but the current denial of reality when only last election the Liberals policy was to have an emissions trading scheme in place by 2012. What were they going to trade, hot air?.
And now there is a deadline for the Liberals’ amendments, the 20th of October. As the Liberals had a similar deadline it seems only clever politics to give one.
The Nationals and some Liberals are representing the opinion of their constituency, what global warming, I can’t see any global warming. It shows how out of touch with their own environment some can become.
Having fallen for their own right wing rhetoric, the ravings of Blunt and Ackerman, the dribblings of Alan Jones, the rantings of the Lavoisier group they now find themselves denying not only the science but the evidence of events we are all experiencing.
The basis of the deniers argument is that like all simple things a warming trend or a sea level rise should be constant and continuous. Failing to atake into account a dynamic system whose major heat source has its own fluctuations within and of multiple years [the multi year cycles not being repetitive, with the influences of fluid systems and a sold cold sink, with stored compounds that can become gases.
Further the deniers claim imperfect knowledge of the causes of past climate events as proof that the planet will not heat beyond points of tolerance, presumably before we act to stop that if it can be shown beyond a doubt that we are the causative factor though our emissions of CO2.
In this paper;
this statement is made “the anthropogenically-driven rise in carbon dioxide (CO2) since the industrial revolution is claimed to be “about double the normal ‘operating range’ of carbon dioxide during glacial-interglacial cycling”.4 In fact the rise (from 280 to 385 ppm) is slightly less than the range (180 to 300 ppm 5 ).
I won’t quibble over the top figure of the interglacial range too much, I will just take it that it is 315ppmv, just a little more.
Why not mention the important point here, the elephant in the room. 2 years after it was written we are at 388 ppmv, outside the quoted and accepted range, above the previously known interglacial range for CO2.
I would have thought that some attention would be paid to the fact that we are some 60% above the range for its previously known maximum. But no the paper is about demolishing the science behind the Garnaut report for the ears and eyes of those who desire it to be demolished, the deniers.
And then there is the temperature trend and its alarmism.
Again limited knowledge is a given, but to attack the global trend line without an understanding of what is happening regionally in a complex system is to be disingenuous.
Arctic sea ice continues to thin and retreat beyond the minima of knowledge and record
Greenland ice is melting, that’s undeniable. The cause of this is not an 0.5dC change in temperature in Greenland, id est supposedly within the normal range, it is a multi degree rise at the poles.
Even if it is part of a natural process that the author believes is happening why hide it?. Don’t want to confuse the punters with the truth?.
Well from the American Geophysical Union peer reviewed and published, the abstract states;
“Temperature changes over Greenland are of special interest due to a possible melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet and resulting sea level rise. General Circulation Models (GCMs) predict that the temperature changes in Greenland should proceed at a faster rate than the global temperature change. Until now there has been no confirmation that Greenland’s long-term temperature changes are related to the global warming and that they proceed faster than the global temperature change. Using double correlations between the Greenland temperature records, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and global temperature change we find a region of Greenland that is not affected by the NAO. Using this region as an indicator of Greenland’s temperature change that is related to global warming, we find that the ratio of the Greenland to global temperature change due to global warming is 2.2 [, sic] in broad agreement with GCM predictions.”
I make that 1.76dC given the average is 0.8dC.
Further, that sea level has not yet drowned cities is cited as evidence that it will not when we know sea level has fluctuated.
Kininmonth argues that the Black Saturday fires of this year “were not unusual but were rare in intensity.”
He concludes “It would be most wrong, without further evidence, to suggest on the basis of this event that the record intensity was either a signal for or an outcome of climate change (human caused or otherwise). It would be most wrong, without further evidence, to suggest on the basis of this event that the record intensity was either a signal for or an outcome of climate change (human caused or otherwise).”
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I suppose Kininmonth will be arguing that a dust storm to reach Sydney, Brisbane, Auckland and Noumea is a rare event but if you are at the start of a trend then the events are by their nature rare. It’s the value of models based on the data of all events that assist us to know what happens if we follow on future or another.
Events are not following the middle line of the models, theya are at the maximum edge of the predictions.
Call me alarmist if you will, it’s what the tocsin sounders are likened to by members of the Lavoisier group and other deniers such as the coal industry, but combined with the evidence from around the world, the science and the models based thereon, its ringing loud and clear to me.
The 15th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change does not appear to be headed for a global agreement of sufficient strength to avoid passing beyond the 2dC point where the instability engendered by the human inducement of heating.
This is the point where we pass into the danger zone of turning points in climate system behavior [Kininmonth’s rare events move toward normal], of ecosystem collapse and a failure of the system of global order. The science tells us we have until 2015 to stabilize global CO2 emissions.
Goodbye oceans, goodbye reefs, goodbye forests, goodbye farms, goodbye trade, goodbye beaches; hullo wars, hullo fires, hullo droughts, hullo mass migrations, hullo starvation. This is the world we face if we fail.
