THE PARSONS REPORT, phill Parsons, 10 July

Well it’s been nice having a short low carbon break walking on Tasmanian beaches.

Reality remains and we find there is more carbon to be released from a melting moment in the Arctic than Rudd would wish, all coming on the back of his governments failure to lead on the one matter that is important.

The country could survive being poor but it cannot survive the collapse of the climate stability upon which we depend.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/06/090630132005.htm

Have a look at Rudd’s world stage strutting program, a repeat of the Bali performance for the mug punter. Which packet of spin will Rudd return with for the Combet Wong show to rubbish our future with environmental lunacy.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25738096-11949,00.html

Cohen’s latest comic character, Bruno, could do well in finding a 2 faced political alter ego, there are certainly examples. But perhaps it’s been done to death in comic tradition, such as in Yes [Prime] Minister, as well as reality.

Another opinion on Rudd at the Make a Difference conference around the G8 meeting can be found in The Age.

http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/times-up-for-old-industry-20090706-daeg.html

Penny to a pound it will be an opportunity made in spin and missed in reality.

And here THE SPIN is a few days later;

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25759688-11949,00.html

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25763533-601,00.html

Although he doesn’t believe an outcome will be achieved Rudd said “We have to actually land an outcome, our negotiators need fresh impetus, a fresh commissioning from their political leaders to try to forge an agreement.”

Well we are awaiting that refreshing change here. The scientific community advises a minimum of a 25% cut to avioid dangerous climate change but the government still has this as a maximunm provided the rest of world the world agrees to strong targets to limit GHG to 450ppmv of CO2.

That is taking us to a 50 to 90% chance of runaway climate change sand its concomitant disasters.

Of course blame in the imeediate future will be placed on intersts elsewhere, no reflection on the Bali double backflip with stab to Garnaut making it into the Prime Ministeril Media Releases.

Increasing climate instability will be some gift to the Gillard premiership.

On the other old camp of climate dinosaurs they remian divided between the fossilized on this issue and the foossil fools who belive we can keep selling coal and burn it too.

Labor has the same fossil fool views with many unwilling to lead a real change to a low carbon economy, trailing behind informed voters badly.

Although apparently a minority, their spread across the nation makes the likelihood of a Senate majority for either old party less and less while either fails to embrace real change. Further their inner city concentration makes the likelihood of Green lower house members in parliaments with single member electorates more and more.

The old parties will become increasingly dependent on the prefernce flows from Green voters and so they will change or fade to a rump of outdated ideas about economic development being sustained in the face of mounting disasters and their associated costs.

Although an unusual disease occurrence cannot be directly attributed to climate instability like the increase in the area affected by cyclones and their intensity these changes in disease patterns will come with more climate instability.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/07/090701163647.htm

You watch the toxins roll out to combat such events along with the attempts to breed it out using GM.

“You don’t know what you’ve got till its gone”

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/06/090629200630.htm

Sea grass meadows, home to may species are in decline concurrent with coral reefs and tropical forests. Note for Senator Fielding. Why is that Steve?

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/07/090706141006.htm

And on the world stage the stuff is strutted without a real understanding of the risk.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25754371-11949,00.html

Risking a 50% to 90% chance of the monsoon failing India and of the big rivers of both India and China both these countries refuse to join in setting a target for GHG reduction that binds them to 50% by 2050.

Their argument that the beneficiaries of historic emissions should carry the burden whilst perhaps well based philosophically fails to take into account that the developed countries cannot reverse a process once it goes past the point at which positive feedbacks become negative.

Those immutable laws of physics and chemistry do not follow an anti colonial line cheering on the oppressed or poor or developing. It is likely the poor of developing countries suffer more.

As a joint effort is needed, China, India, Brazil and South Africa are making a long term error in not negotiating to ensure technology transfer to benefit their people both directly through appropriate technologies and indirectly by retaining a habitable planet.

Staying below 2dC and thus avoiding dangerous climate change appears to be retreating in the face of short sighted national interest. When the failures of such a policy come home to them the likelihood of avoiding catastrophic climate instability will be significantly less, the actions needed to avoid that much more severe, and thus, given similar narrow national interest prevailing under greater and more frequent climate instability failure is more likely.

The world has changed, our understanding of the processes that govern it vastly improved on the time of the former colonial masters. The former colonies wished to determine their own future.

To do so now they too have to ensure there is one.

phill Parsons

Rudd and Turnbull our young enough and intelligent enough to understand the disaster facing this country and the world if they fail to act at home and to conjointly with the other interested party, the Greens, to from a coalition in the interest of ensuring a comprehensive effectively and timely agreement in Copenhagen.

The old parties continuing to fight over the bones in the den will only ensure that all loose out in the wider world.

If Rudd and Turnbull are leaders they will bang the heads that need that treatment and present a more united front than the US is doing when projecting its national interest vis the climate under President Obama.

These 2 have 150 days to pull off such a coup but more likely is the time fritted away in wrangling within and between the old paries these men represent and the risk to the world exceeding the abovementioned 50% minimum.