I make some predictions. Labor will govern in minority after the March 18 election and the sun will continue to rise each morning in the east.
There will be no deal between Labor and the Greens, because none will be necessary.
The Greens will publicly commit to allow the party with the most seats, Labor, to get its Budget and Supply bills through the House of Assembly.
They will also commit to allow the minority government to govern with the same security as the 1989 Accord, ie, we’ll only bring you down if you’re corrupt and we’ll do it on our motion, not the Liberals’.
That leaves the Greens free to vote however they want on any non-Budget legislation and the onus will be on the Government to present persuasive arguments on those pieces of legislation where it cannot be sure of support from either the Libs or the Greens. That sounds pretty democratic to me.
Meanwhile, sections of the mainstream media in Tasmania still don’t get it. We’re getting front page stories in The Mercury saying the Greens will use poker machines to bargain with Labor over government.
Hello?
Have you forgotten about the Libs? Are they going to rob Federal Hotels of their pokies?
And John Gay saying he’ll take his pulp mill to China if we get a minority government here.
Hello?
Come on, John. Have you forgotten about the Libs, too? You’ll always have the numbers for a pulp mill here. But the precedents are not good for timber bosses threatening voters at election time.
It really is time that people, including our political writers, commentators and business leaders, started thinking straight.
The Greens, when they get the balance of power, will have to act responsibly, otherwise they will bear the consequences at the next election. You don’t have to have an Accord to ensure that and, therefore, Paul Lennon does not have to negotiate anything and he knows it.
Bruce Montgomery is a Hobart-based freelance journalist who spends as much time as he can chasing yachts and albatrosses. He is a former long-time Tasmanian correspondent for The Australian, has advised both Paul Lennon and John Howard and once foolishly thought he could drag the forest industry into the 20th century, let alone the 21st.
Bruce Montgomery
Liverpool St,
Hobart
