First published March 19
So … the elections … what happened? Despite the high level of disenchantment with major parties, Labor and the Libs both did very well, but Xenophon’s SA Best and the Greens got stomped.
I was right out in Batperson and so were all the other observers and commentators. But unusually, I was more wrong than most. I can see that the mood in these inner-city electorate is to support the Greens, so I am expecting to see large swings and the inner-city seats fall to the Greens like dominoes.
There is no doubt that the Greens failed miserably in Batman. It was theirs to win. Alex Bhathal blamed big Labor money – most likely a patent lie, as almost certainly the Greens way outspent Labor. Di Natale has blamed division within the party, and that’s very obviously a factor in the dismal performance of Greens right across the country. The electorate is becoming disillusioned and seeing the Greens just like the major parties … which is not quite true.
But the main problem is, squarely, the candidate. Bhathal first ran in 2001. That’s a time when a lot of the Greens voters were small children. She’s been Queen Bee in that local branch for twenty years. It is quite obvious that some of the members are signalling they would rather have Labor win than Bhathal. She needs to be jettisoned, quickly. But Di Natale has neither the power nor, probably, the inclination, to do this. I used to be an advocate of candidates being solely chosen by the branch, without the involvement of Head Office. No more. This is proving to be a big weakness for the Greens. Branches can be controlled, or stacked. There are times when Head Office has to have the ability to reject candidates.
Shorten’s victory speech was good, very good. It indicates a return to traditional Labor values, support for Unions, support for the less advantaged – a swing Left. It’s possible that may convince the 2-3% that is all that is needed to win. But let’s see if that is actively reflected in policy, and if that policy is carried out. I’m doubtful.
What is going to really hurt Labor is their Realpolitik in sharing prefs with the Australian Conservatives and that nut Cory Bernardi. I found this out when I was involved in politics myself. Realpolitik has limits. The limit is that if you give prefs to someone that has an ideology totally opposed to yours, people lose faith and sooner or later it will come back to bite you on Die Arsen.
In South Australia, Xenophon blaming big Pokie money has more truth (and my forecast was more correct). But what seems to have happened is that when he ramped up, he couldn’t control such an enlarged organisation. He wasn’t able to get the donations he needed. He had no other really high-profile figure so he ran himself ragged. He for some ungodly reason chose the wrong electorate to stand in. SA Best won under 14% – much worse than Hansen in Queensland – and like them, gained no seats. These small parties have visions of winning far more seats than they actually can. If Xenophon had concentrated his effort, he could have won a seat for himself and maybe one other. By spreading himself too thin, he achieved nothing. The Greens got whacked, winning only 6.6%, but the cause of that was back in Batman – leaks that were prompted by opposition to Bhathal.
Xenophon is now King Lear. And to his credit, he can see this. He says he wants to step back. His candidates say they will support him. But, unlike the two upper house member that SA Best will get, he has no power, no position. It’s very difficult to see him holding on as leader – but it’s very difficult to see any politics junkie staying clear of politics.
Labor did very well in South Australia … holding back the flood, but that’s probably not due to Labor. In the past, when a party has been in charge for a very long time, when the electorate decides to change, there has been a landslide that decimates the ruling party. Technically, Labor has been more than decimated, as 5-7 seats lost is 20-30%. Nevertheless, to lose only that amount is a good result.
But nowadays, the electorate is disinclined to give power to any one party. Results everywhere are close, with non-majority wins (there will be an exception, probably, at the next Federal Election, as the electorate will want to severely punish this ineffective lying Liberal government. I expect big swings). It’s not clear as I write that the Libs in SA will gain a complete majority. They may end up with only 23 – though it looks as though they will reach 24; there are two seats still way too close to call. Labor will be hoping that this is just an interlude and that they will be back next time, as happened in Victoria. And it may well be the case that the Libs will have only one term.
Terrifyingly, as soon as the Lib leader Marshall strode into power on a 1980’s song, he started spouting about Reform. We all know what Reform means in Lib hands. Regress. Cuts everywhere and taking food out of the mouths of the poor to stuff the pockets of the rich. Money diverted from public transport to superhighways. Money diverted from hospitals and schools to stadiums. And other big projects that will satisfy the developers who control and fund both parties.
What really needs reform is Australia’s corrupt political system. The ban on overseas donations is good. But what is also urgently needed is:
1. A ban on all corporate donations.
2. A limit on personal donations to $2000
3. A limit on spending at elections to $15,000 per electorate (5% of what is spent now), $30,000 in by-elections
4. Ultimately, a proportionally elected government. Once all significant sections of the electorate have representation, there will be more stability.
What the electorate really want is not freedom, though that is important, but stability. What they are saying at the moment is that they are inclined to give complete power to nobody. It is time for the system to change.
*Thomas Kent is a composer, poet, photographer, artist, and an appointed Buddhist and Meditation teacher. As an organiser and professional writer, he has assisted multicultural communities with humanitarian issues for over forty years, and at present is working with Muslim and Buddhist leaders in Western Melbourne. In 2009 community leaders nominated him for the Premier’s Award for Multicultural Journalism. Tom attempted to retire from political writing when he turned 60, but the anger at humanitarian abuses that the powerful inflict on the powerless could not be suppressed. Though disabled Tom has released over 100 musical pieces in many genres and is now studying composition at university.
