What will happen to Bass?

Peter Tucker

WELL, now that the pulp mill decision has been made, what will happen to Bass at the federal election? Can the Liberal’s incumbent Michael Ferguson hang on, or will the seat go back to Labor? Or will the Greens, or an independent candidate, blouse out the major parties on a groundswell of anti-mill feeling?

One thing is for sure, Bass is about the hardest electorate to call in the country because there are so many variables and uncertainties that none of us can be sure what the outcome will be.

But I’m foolish enough to stick my neck out: I think Labor will win the seat.

Here is my take on events from here on in to the election.

The first thing to note is that the bookmakers did not change their odds on who will win Bass either side of Malcolm Turnbull’s announcement last Thursday. Research by the Australian National University’s Andrew Leigh shows that the betting odds are a much more accurate predictor of elections than opinion polls. As it currently stands, leading bookmaker Centrebet gives Labor’s Jodie Campbell an overwhelming 71 percent chance of winning the seat.

Another important factor to recognise is that, despite what the major parties might hope, the pulp mill will be a big influence on voting behaviour. Just because Labor and Liberal have essentially the same position, does not mean the issue has been neutralised.

Far from it.

That doesn’t mean I believe the Green’s Tom Millen or an anti-mill independent can win the seat – one of the major parties will prevail. Why? Because of history: Bass is overwhelmingly socially and economically conservative and has not traditionally supported Green/minor candidates to the same extent as the southern electorates.

So despite local feelings over the mill I don’t expect the electors’ propensity to vote for major parties to change.

But Mr Millen will still get a larger than usual primary vote – sixteen percent would be twice the 2004 Green vote in Bass – and it is where his preferences go that will be crucial.

The problem for Mr Ferguson is that, despite his position on the mill not being essentially different from Ms Campbell’s, it is his party which made the final approval decision so it is his party that is likely to be punished for it.

Welcome to “punishment politics.” The scenario Mr Ferguson faces is those voters who feel strongly against the mill venting their anger by putting him as Liberal candidate last on the ticket.

For the record, I think that Mr Ferguson recognises this and is doing a good job in trying to limit the damage. His ability to appear genuinely empathetic to both sides of the debate and his appeal to “heal the wounds” is his only way forward.

But that is unlikely to be enough at the 2007 federal election. If the pulp mill wasn’t enough of a burden, he still has to fight against the “Rudd-slide” opinion poll wave that’s washing through the Australian community.

Many believe Michael Ferguson to be the most erudite and capable Liberal politicians in the state at the moment, but the omens for his seat in Bass aren’t good – Labor is definitely in front.