PETER TUCKER
I agree that Labor’s scare campaign over minority government might backfire by raising the issue in the voters’ minds, only to see the Libs benefit because voters see them as the better majority alternative.
BUT, that doesn’t mean the Libs have a realistic chance of getting a majority.
If it WAS to happen, the following would be the most likely route.
A majority requires 13 seats, and at present the Libs have seven. So 13 will mean two electorates with two seats and three electorates returning three. Denison and Franklin would be the seats with two, because the Greens are certain of taking one seat in each, which means Labor takes the other two. (For the Libs to win three seats it would require something like a 20% swing in Denison and 15% in Franklin.)
So, if we accept the above, that means Lyons, Braddon and Bass have ALL to return three Liberals each.
Braddon is the most likely. Assuming the Green vote stays at around 11%, then a swing of 8% from Labor to Liberals would start to give the Libs some chance of three, depending on preference flow.
In Bass, the Greens’ Kim Booth would have to miss AND an 8-10% swing AT LEAST would be needed.
In Lyons, where the Libs have just one seat, the Green voter would have to fall enough for Morris to lose his seat AND the swing to the Libs would need to be around the 14% range to start having a chance.
For the Libs to gain a majority, all of the above scenarios have to occur. We could easily gey one or two happening, but all three? Is anyone really suggesting the Liberals can go from one to three seats in Lyons at this election?
In politics anything is possible, but for the Liberals to gain a majority you really are looking at the 100/1 shot.
