PHILL PARSONS
phill Parsons weekly update, starting today, on climate change issues …
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Climate Change: How The ‘2 Degrees Celsius Target’ Can Be Reached
ScienceDaily (May 2, 2009) — If CO2 emissions are halved by 2050 compared to 1990, global warming can be stabilised below two degrees. This is shown by two studies by a co-operation of German, Swiss and British researchers in the journal Nature.
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To contain global warming, and its risks and consequences, warming compared to pre-industrial times (pre 1900) should not exceed two degrees Celsius. Although, according to the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), there is no specific temperature threshold for dangerous climate changes, and the negative effects are gradually increasing, over one hundred countries have adopted this “2°C target”. Scientists have used a new probability model to calculate how much CO2 our atmosphere tolerates under these target specifications. This1 and another study2, recently published in Nature, produced similar results: From 2000 to 2050, a maximum of 1000 billion tonnes of CO2 may be emitted into the atmosphere. Roughly speaking, today, around one third of this wad has already been shot.
Like a bath tub
“The behaviour of CO2 in the atmosphere is best described as a full bathtub,” says Reo Knutti, professor at the Institute for Atmosphere and Climate at ETH Zurich, and co-author of one of the two studies. The inflow of the bathtub is large, but the drainage is small. The CO2 emissions are increasing every year, but the CO2 is only removed from the atmosphere very slowly. To not let the bathtub overflow, the inflow must thus be stopped early enough. “It is wrong to believe that the temperature will remain constant with constant emissions,” says Knutti.
The innovative aspect of the study is the fact that the probabilistic model does not perform just one individual simulation, but simulates thousands of combinations of scenarios and assumptions. Knutti adds that, in doing so, all known uncertainties are taken into account. For example, the physical uncertainties in feedback effects from clouds, uncertainties in the carbon cycle – e.g. how much CO2 is absorbed by the oceans -, as well as uncertainties in the scenarios. These scenarios describe the time when the maximum “allowed” emission has been reached. The model also includes the overall effects of all greenhouse gases, such as CO2, methane and nitrous oxide, as well as ozone and the aerosol effect.
Everything in one step
So far, these sorts of studies have been conducted in two stages, Knutti explains: “First, the 2°C temperature threshold is converted into a CO2 target, and then the carbon model is used to calculate how high the emissions can be.” The new study now does this in one step. To do this, scientists have redeveloped and adjusted existing models. They calibrated the calculations on the observed data from the last hundred and fifty years.
Budget quickly exhausted
The models show that there is a 75 percent probability that global warming will not exceed two degrees if a maximum of 1000 billion tonnes of CO2 are emitted into the atmosphere from 2000 to 2050. This number seems high, but 234 billion tonnes had already been flung into the atmosphere between 2000 and 2006. If the emission remain at this high level, or even increase, the budget would be exhausted before 2030. The results show that time to act is short. Knutti is pleased that greenhouse gas emissions in Switzerland in 2007 were 2.7 percent lower than in 1990 but the values continue to be too high: at least a 50 percent reduction is needed worldwide by 2050; the global long-term goal would be less than one tonne per person per year. Currently, some 6 tonnes of CO2 per person are emitted in Western Europe each year, 19 tonnes in North America and 3 tonnes in China – without taking into account grey energy.
The researchers believe that the next forty years until 2050, in which, according to the study, CO2 emissions must be halved, will be a good indicator of how global warming will develop. “If, in 2050, we find that our measures have been successful and are working, and if we continue to implement them, we can assume that we are on the right track,” says Knutti.
The study also shows that, if all conservatively estimated available fossil fuels were to be burnt, two to three times more CO2 than allowed for the 2°C target would be emitted. This only takes into account the fuels which are already known and which are economically viable to extract. The fossil fuels will therefore not run out before the maximum CO2 emission calculated by scientists is reached. If we continue to use them, this must take place in combination with effective technologies which capture the CO2 and extract it from the atmosphere. Whether such technologies can be implemented on such a large scale and at sensible prices is, however, questionable.
“Every tonne of CO2 is one tonne”
Together with the aforementioned study, Nature also included a second publication on a similar issue, which, however, takes into account a longer period of five hundred years, until the year 2500. This study also concludes that the total amount of CO2 emissions is crucial in terms of how much the earth warms up. The authors summarise a political interpretation in comments in Nature Reports Climate Change3. According to Knutti, “Every tonne of CO2 is one tonne, whether it is emitted today or in fifty years. This is often lost in the tangle of emission targets, certificates and negotiations. The total quantity is what matters, and must be limited, but short-term goals are necessary to see whether we are on the right track.”
Knutti has also recently shown that, in a complex climate model and in co-operation with other scientists, with a 70 percent CO2 reduction by the end of this century, the melting of the Arctic Sea ice can be limited to a quarter4. The researchers conclude that this could, for example, help to protect the fauna – such as the polar bears – and prevent the permafrost areas from decreasing by 70 percent. Instead, “only” 45 percent of the permafrost are expected to melt. The frozen permafrost soils are natural reservoirs of greenhouse gas. They store large quantities of CO2 and methane, which can be emitted into the atmosphere if the soil melts.
The series of studies show that the total quantity of CO2 emission is limited if people want to limit climate change. “With every year of delay, we are using up our quota, losing flexibility, and increasing the probability of dangerous consequences,” says Knutti.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/05/090502092019.htm
These occasional reports will cross the areas of climate science, of the play of politics in the social arena and of practical solutions for a low carbon future.
Whilst there is a lot going on leading up to the Copenhagen Protocol [or not] at the end of the year on the domestic scene the quote of the week comes from Sharan Burrow, ACTU Secretary, [listen up CFMEU] “ There are no jobs on a dead planet”
This signals a split in the unions position, with the Council clearly showing concern about the outcome if actions to arrest climate change are insufficient. It is a comment on the governments low targets and on industry’s demands for more easing on the start of emissions trading.
And is this woman alone. Have a look here to see what Rupert’s mum is up to. [http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25451161-11949,00.html]
Interestingly, Mitch Hook, Mining Industry Council front man, said that if a strong carbon emissions trading scheme was adopted ad Copenhagen, Australian industry would have little difficulty trading in a global environment with a level playing field.
In simple terms Australia going it alone with a weak target does not suit the miners but the world going ahead with strong targets does.
Now you have to ask why the government had not set a higher 25% target short term target for a successful Copenhagen agreement in the first place and played down the 5% reserve target if Copenhagen fails for a better outcome internationally and to keep its promise to the Australian people.
Currently the target is 5% and the criteria for adopting a 25% target is not clearly stated, so it must depend on the way the political wind is blowing at the next election rather than actual outcomes.
The Greens have now made a major compromise and made 25% their minimum target. Of course this does not guarantee legislation passing the Senate but it brings into question who are the economic lunatics.
Combet was recently moved in to assist Wong with getting the legislation through. Combet’s union credibility and his negotiating skills will be invaluable. But the ACTU has put its position on jobs versus the climate. The climate takes eminence.
The Greens align with the govermnemts modelling and the IPCC minimum target for developed countries. The old parties are the one’s with targets set too low and without programs to restructure the economy.
One can see the planner isolated from reality coming up with a Carbon Trust to take the cents and concerns of citizens and funnel them into the carbon emissions trading market. Home owners have spoken with their wallets and invested in converting their homes to solar and wind.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/the-little-green-car-that-pays-for-itself-20090507-awk6.html?page=-1 gives an example of what people can do and shows why the proposed carbon trust is just another take in a scheme of takes that ends up taking away our climate stability upon which we depend. It also shows how easy a 40% emissions reduction by 2020 could be with a little innovation and some support.
History refers us to the English drive for aluminium that saw thousands of pots, pans and chocolate wrappers collected by citizens to assist the war effort by providing the raw material for aircraft. Although Beaverbrook’s aluminium drive was a misdirected effort, the pots, pans and chocolate wrappers unsuited for the use it showed how willing people can be to assist if they perceive a crisis.
The government, if it wanted to lead change would focus on assisting the home owner change their energy sources, for example by ensuring a consistent feed in tariff across the nation. People want to act at home, at work and on holiday. A popular move would be to facilitate that not divert energy into bureaucratic dead ends.
Of course Combet has problems in his coal mining electorate of Hunter with the coal industry workers hanging on to their jobs. They cannot see a CCS saving their jobs even though it is the governments preferred future. That’s a strange dilemma. A failure to sell the ETS to the green voter and to the carbon intensive industry worker is dilemma that will need less claims about Green lunacy and more green work.
[http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25436118-11949,00.html]
Industry is working this and you will see a convergence between the CFMEU/TCA approach to forestry and that of the coal industry communities as they campaign to have their mine propped up. Industry is using this lever in an attempt to wring more concessions from government predicting 10,000 jobs and 16 mines to close by 2020.
The Liberals appear to still be floundering after their own Shergold and Garnauts reports and a Senate Inquiry they still fail to have enough data to offer a clear alternative to Labor’s plan. If they retain this position through the Senate debate on the ETS next month then they will struggle with capturing the environmental vote at the next election
And this will not be made any easier by GET UP, who are applying pressure by campaigning for change. If Labor falls into the industry trap of a woe is me and no investment future and fails to meet with the expectations of voters then the activists campaign could reverse the voting trend it claims responsibility for in 2007.
[http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25440886-11949,00.html]
GET UP also claims it will not campaign against Labor at the next election. Therefore it must plan to ensure Labor does not hold the balance of power in the Senate, the only way you can have a Labor government that listens to its voters.
And division is appearing in the ACF with a Council meeting calling in the President and the Director for a please explain your support of the governments weak emission reduction targets.
For any organization to retain credibility over the climate issue it must follow the science. Playing politics will leave it isolated from reality and divided within itself as members and supporters question how they organization can take positions that equate to endorsing dangerous climate instability.
The agreement made in Copenhagen in December will chart the course for the world’s climate. Without a breakthrough scientific discovery that takes carbon from the atmosphere such as is being worked on at the University of Tasmania the best we can hope for is to just avoid a self fuelling dangerous climate change, with huge impacts from the associated climate instability our delayed actions have allowed to build up.
What is the climate up to on the ground?
[http://www.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUSTRE5451IM20090506?feedType=RSS&feedName=environmentNews]
A look at the above will tell the story of infrastructure on the Tibetian plateau. Construction and maintenance of roads, railways, and pipelines will have an escalating costs as the permafrost melts there and in the Arctic.
Russia and Canada already know of these effects. Tibet is a double whammy as the snow and ice is the feedstock of 5 great rivers that support the people of India, Thialand and Indo China and China.
The early signs of systemic failure in this water storage system based on temperature will be the meltwater lakes at the end of the glaciers bursting and causing local disasters downstream. Nearly all of the 20,000 glaciers in the Himal – Hindu Kush region are in retreat. Some 2,000 glacial meltwater lakes are forming in Nepal and 20 are in danger of bursting.
Worrying about one bit melting at a time is not taking into account the impacts of a long term trend of rising temperature on all the areas of ice. The relationship between temperature and the physical state of water is not mutable.
On the plastic bag front where a do nothing attitude was adopted by some State’s and thus the Federal government SA has decided to end it all by banning the light weight plastic shopping bag, joining Coles bay and the Target chain. Interestingly, Gunns stopped using plastic bags months ago, reusing boxes and or giving away brown paper bags.
Stepping up to the plate today because the cloth bags were buried under stuff, the supermarket trolley was reloaded and wheeled out to the car, each item packed separately and unloaded using a basket once home. Reusing boxes in the boot would make a simple and cheap system.
It should be goodnight to the lightweight plastic bag by direct action.
Melbourne is looking to have a downtown free bicycle service similar to other cities including Brisbane, Amsterdam, Paris and Montreal.
Here is a chance for Tasmania to step up with a service in each of its cities managed by the MTT or its agent, making Bartlett’s bikeways extend across Tasmania and provide a service for tourists who will become used to having bicycles available for local use.
Everyone in the Tourism industry knows the bulk of our visitors come from Melbourne and as Victoria greens up the contrast with Tasmania’s values and services will make a growing segment of the market question the carbon footprint of their holiday if that disparity is reduced elsewhere.
phill Parsons
