via phill Parsons At UN forum on forests, scientists release analysis showing forests at risk of becoming net sources of carbon instead of net sinks
New York (17 April 2009) –The critical role of forests as massive “sinks” for absorbing greenhouse gases is “at risk of being lost entirely” to climate change-induced environmental stresses that threaten to damage and even decimate forests worldwide, according to a new report released today. The report will be formally presented at the next session of the United Nations Forum on Forests (UNFF) taking place 20 April-1 May 2009 at the UN Headquarters in New York City. Read more here
Guardian
A “perfect storm” of food shortages, scarce water and insufficient energy resources threaten to unleash public unrest, cross-border conflicts and mass migration as people flee from the worst-affected regions, the UK government’s chief scientist will warn tomorrow. In a major speech to environmental groups and politicians, Professor John Beddington, who took up the position of chief scientific adviser last year, will say that the world is heading for major upheavals which are due to come to a head in 2030. Read more here
And, Melbourne’s water supply …
Dear Ken,
The Age has now published several articles on Melbourne’s water supply.
Current storage levels mean 300 gigalitres of inflow is required to meet demand until 2011, I assume on current restrictions.
Historical records indicate that 385 gigalitres will flow.
Now the water Water Minister denies 75 gigalitres will flow down the northern pipeline in 2011, his denial indicating that flow will be less.
2011 appears important because its when the desalination plant comes online.
My comments are that;
After a 12 year drought it might be time to admit that Melbourbes catchmetns are like Perth’s, the rainfall expected has taken a long term step down. Perth’s have taken 2 since 1970.
Therefore over the next 2 years rainfall in the storage catchments may be 20% below historical records, the step Victoria’s rainfall averages appear to have taken, thus reducing inflow to 308 gigalitres. A very slim margin requring a step up in restictions and/or community action if the margin is to be wider to deal with eventualities.
And in 2011 the storage levels will still be under 30% if there are no events. Events are something that comes with the initial climate instability phase of global heating. You have seen them recently, Black Saturday, whilst a tragedy, was accompanied by 374 additional deaths caused by the assosciated heatwave according to the Victorian Coroner.
Now if you take that figure and divide it be the Victorian population and then multiply it by the European one to include the area affecxteds by the heatwave, 2005 from memory where the Europe wide additional deaths has been rported at 35,000 you can get a comparison. My mug figures tell me Victoria topped Europe without the associated death toll of the fires, with them it is almost double.
I am not sure how that water storage outcome would be avoided. A pipeline under Bass Strait would not be completed before 2011, if the Tasmanian government played ball, but it has recognized the need for intrastate distribution now that it has allowed the high rainfall farming areas to become used for plantations and that farming has changed to broad acre irrigated [less suited to the topography of the higher rainfall areas]. Water is to be piped to the drier midlands with its lesser undulations and larger land holdings.
The lesson for government, business and the voter here is that these are the initial costs in what we will be an escalating scale of costs running through all areas of government.
They may be viewed as benficial when you look at them as stimulii to the economy, especially in a model that adds the costs of accidents and disaters to its gross.
However, as more and more is needed to be done to adapt to the changes to the climate we are making and to recover from the disasters to come, induced by our activities, there will be less to expend on mitigation to address the impacts and also less to spend on all those other things government likes to do to make itself popular.
Of course government may retain some of that popularity based on expenditure as it attempts to address carbon emissions but as their failure to act becomes more and more obvious blame will come to rest at the feet of the old parties. And then of course there is the wartime rationing respoinse that allows directed effort.
However the minimalist actions of the Rudd governmetn in forcing ‘rationing’ through its CPRS is not prooving popular with the carbon emitting industries and their associated unions.
It is unfortunate that like Canute and the tide, the immutable laws of physics and chemistry will not stop for humans, no matter how rich and powerful they may believe they are.
Even if we come to an effective agreement in Copenhagen at the end of the year and it is faithfully implemented in this round we can be assured of increasing temperatures impacting on temperatiure and rainfall and therfore water supplies be they into storages or onto the floodplain..
philll Parsons
