Peter Tucker
The first graph plots all raw EMRS results since the outfit started polling back in 2002. It shows a long-term decline in the Labor vote and a steady improvement for the Liberals and the Greens. But success in politics is all about being in front at an election – history is just that. I’ve marked when David Bartlett took over the premiership from Paul Lennon, and I think it is fair to conclude that, under Bartlett, the trend might now be for the government. Certainly, the 5-6 percentage point gap between the major parties, a feature of polls during 2007, appears to have returned
The ABC reports that Labor surges ahead while Greens lose ground on the strength of Labor’s 4% gain and the Greens’ 3% fall. That statement might make a good headline, but journalists should be warned against calling 2-4% shifts from poll-to-poll in such colourful terms: what happens if there are similar movements the other way at the next poll? Read more here
