A year ago on 21 June 2024 Jeremy Rockliff bragged in a media release:

The Tasmanian Liberal Government is delivering the stable, collaborative government that Tasmanians voted for … Our Government is committed to making this Parliament work…

Well. The Premier now has to wear the blame for the breakdown of the Parliament. He can’t claim that it was never workable; it clearly was.

His party led it astray. They did it through a combination of poor management of issues large and small – Spirits anyone? – and lousy budgeting. In just a year.

It was silly and pointless for Treasurer Barnett to talk about a “pathway to fiscal surplus” when there was none. The “record health spending” Budget claim was misleading: an increase, yes, but lower than the predicted cost increase in health delivery, which means staff or service cuts will be required.

And so on. Fudgety fudges on stadium spending and the like plus the known black hole of unfunded superannuation for public servants mean that the reality is even worse than the red ink suggests.

Ratings agencies are poised to downgrade Tasmania’s credit rating, which will cost the State of Tasmania dearly in terms of higher loan payments.

Markedly, the Liberals have steadfastly refused to look at any new revenue raising measures. Their now reflexive move is to whip the tax bogeyman out of the cupboard and try to beat up the Opposition with it.

This may work in certain times. It does not work when the budget is a smoking ruin and there is broad recognition – among business, leaders, social organisations, community – that a fix is required.

Thus the Liberals, too divided to choose another leader and too arrogrant to present a revised Budget, turned the no-confidence motion against Rockliff into an election ticket.

So here we are.

The first week of the campaign has been a dour chain of ‘photo opportunities’ and wan announcements in a very awkward context: the election no-one wants. Election promises might as well be made in front of a stadium-sized pile of rotting garbage.

The Liberals look and sound like a pack of zombies. Rockliff’s speeches regularly plead to be allowed to “finish the job.” Would that be the job you’ve now had four terms of parliament to do? And for which there is no longer financial capacity to deliver?

At this point no-one’s confident the Rockliff team could slice the half-time oranges.

“Strong” is also a label the Liberals like to appropriate: “This election comes down to one choice: a strong Liberal team with a real plan or another merry-go-round of chaos and compromise,” said Guy Barnett today.

Against the backdrop of a thrice-collapsed majority and government, it’s just absurdly hollow. We’re just some party that you used to know sings a voice from far away, probably imprisoned in a giant potato along with Adam Brooks.

Labor on the other hand has dropped the previous mantra of “a Labor majority government will…” That too sounded like whiffle, so might as well not shoot your credibility in the foot every time you stand to speak.

The emerging Labor theme is “a fresh start”. Wait, what? Is there anything actually fresh on offer?

Labor is welded to Liberal policy in most of the big areas. Tax salmon? Hell no. Back Marinus Link, regardless of the deal likely to be a stinker for Tasmania? Hell yes. Actually listen to the real problems identified with the Macquarie Point stadium thought bubble and listen to the clear majority of Tasmanians who don’t want it? Hell no. Run protection for every dirty, exploitative cartel, from gaming to forestry to animal abuse industries to property developers and beyond? Winter says hell yes faster than I can type it.

Apart from a different colour of tie, Liberal and Labor are near indistinguishable. Tas Inc. – protect the old mates, prop up bad ideas, slash services to pay for it – is the long term project of both.

As a reader wrote in just today:

When the essential beliefs of each party are placed side by side there is not really any marked difference that I could see and by deleting the party name it would be difficult to determine which one they belong to.

All of which leaves me with John Steinbeck thoughts: “I know now why confusion in government is not only tolerated but encouraged. I have learned that a confused people can make no clear demands.”

Winter’s biggest idea of the campaign so far is RenewTas, another Orwellian-named agency along the lines of State Growth. It’s remit will be to “get development moving and make home ownership a reality again”.

There appears to be major overlap with Homes Tasmania. Is HT to be scrapped? Or is this just another task force of big salary administrators making plans?

Both parties are constrained by the reality that they can’t talk pork as there’s nothing left in the barrel. So deckchair shuffling it is.

The Greens also appear to have been caught on the hop. They didn’t even get around to presenting their alternative Budget before the final sessions of the House of Assembly all ended up in tears.

They have put out a few watchdoggy announcements but nothing that glows with inspiration.

Independents and minors meanwhile have the gift of ‘not a major party’ to write large on every flyer, corflute and social media post. Increasingly, this resonates.

If Big Blue, Big Red and Big Green are all tired, confused and scrapping like devil joeys, why not vote for Mr Solid? Ms Accountable? At least they have a chance of coming across as genuine. Many of them actually care more about Tasmania than Tas Inc.

The bottom line now feels like: “How could they possibly be any worse?”

When the potatoes are rotten and the stench has cleared the room…maybe it’s time for a new crop?

We will providing more coverage of the indies and minors as the next four weeks rolls on. Stay tuned, or not, but in the end it’s only four weeks until you have to hold your nose and vote.

Alan Whykes is Chief Editor of Tasmanian Times, and grows his own potatoes.

Featured comment – Ted Mead, 20 June 2025

The one-eyed potato syndrome works!

When it comes to economics and budgeting, even a potato grower knows if you cut a seed potato into several sections that each have a tuber eye, you can increase your production output.

Considering we had a potato family farmer as a premier, you’d think he apply the same sane rationalism to government economics? However, in politics, it’s much easier to simply dole out seemingly unlimited taxpayer’s assets to the state’s burdening Government Business Enterprises, their party cronies and their corporate sponsors who keep them in governance, whilst ensuring the well-greased wheels keep revolving for the benefit of cartels and oligarchs.

So where does Mr Potato Head’s fiscal responsibilities and savings arise from? Slashing essential services and reducing public service numbers through some form of ‘Razor Gang’ economics seems the Liberals’, and probably, Labor’s only means.

This has been executed before by both federal and state governments, but at the end of the day, the saving measures were miniscule compared to other irresponsible spending.

Economist Saul Eslake estimates, “Tasmania is heading to a debt of $16 billion by 2035 with repayments to hit $750 million a year”. It’s fair to claim that Tasmania will be in an economic crisis before then.

Without a credible Integrity Commission, immorality and corruption has become legal in Tasmania, and every time there is a move to rectify this, the government finds a means to hinder the process. Dean Winter has recently stated along the lines that the request for another election may be related to reducing further scrutiny of the Liberal party. Winter’s statement of course refers to Tasmania’s political donation disclosure law bill that was suppose to be debated in mid-July 2025.

Tasmania’s major political parties have declared just a slice of the donations they received in 2023 and 2024. Australian Electoral Commission data shows the Liberals pulled in more than $3.3 million from donors, while Labor collected over $2.2 million during the same period. But both parties have only disclosed about 10% of those amounts, sparking accusations of a lack of transparency. These amounts are only what we know about, or can define to direct donations.

Elections are usually focused around promises of sound economic management, but the past Rockliff government has obfuscated the July 19 event as much as possible.

Prepare yourself for more of the same deception over the next month!

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