It’s been 14 days since the election and we have a result, but we still have a hung parliament.

The outgoing government or opposition must negotiate a workable minority government. But Labor under Rebecca White has walked away from any deal making.

That leaves the numerically superior – but diluted under the new 35 seat arrangement – Liberals who hold this pipe dream that they command a minority government.

I say pipe dream because the previous Rockliff government could not even handle John Tucker and Lara Alexander walking out of the Liberal Party in May 2023 to run a workable government.

Statewide the Liberals had a big swing of 12.1% against them, while Labor managed a slight gain of 0.8%.

In Bass, Lyons, and even Braddon it was not good news for the outgoing Liberal government. Premier Rockliff’s seat of Braddon had a 11.6% swing against his party.

In Lyons it was a slightly higher swing at 13.6% against the outgoing government.

But one of the highlights of this election is that the Liberals copped a massive 21.9% swing in Bass. One can only describe this as a crushing defeat and bodes ill for the party in future elections in that seat. Perhaps could bring back the popular and hard-working Peter Gutwein to save the Liberals’ bacon in Bass.

It was northern Tasmanian voters expressing frustration at the Rockliff government going into this election that makes forming a minority government more difficult.

Where did all those Liberal votes go to this time? Mainly to the Jacqui Lambie Network who gained three seats and are undisputedly the king makers.

So why did the Liberals perform so poorly?

Partly because of ten years of incumbency, a sense of lazy government and the Labor ad “if you can’t fix things in ten years you never will”. That resonated, but unfortunately it had no traction for Labor because while many voters agreed, they placed their vote elsewhere.

There was also a perception of arrogance by the outgoing government from an important demographic of older voters who worry about the ailing health care system.

Bill Clinton once famously said “it’s the economy stupid” in a debate against Bush. Here in Tasmania, in order to win voters, politicians should think “it’s health, stupid”.

Former Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce once said “it’s time to change the curtains” has resonance.

Now Rockliff confronts a post-election scenario with a group of minor parties and independents likely more hostile than Tucker and Alexander could ever be to the Liberal Party.

The unwise and petulant electioneering strategy by the Liberals against the JLN in the lead up to the election, by creating a fake JLN website, could cost them power. Simply put, the outgoing government trod on too many feet. For future smarter Liberal strategists, “don’t shoot yourself in the foot” needlessly.

There is no guarantee that Rockliff will be able to form a minority government. The on-going negotiations could drag on for many weeks even months before a minority government is declared.

It is possible that Rockliff could go to Government House and admit defeat to the Governor if he can’t coax the others to join him to form government.

In which case forming a minority government of another complexion could emerge.

We live in interesting times.

Phil na Champassak is a passionate advocate for Tasmania and for small business, and owns The Madsen Boutique Hotel in Penguin. He is a founding director of Switch Tasmania (originally the Cradle Coast Innovation Inc) fostering enterprise facilitation and innovation in a regional context. He was a board member of the Cradle Coast Tourism Executive, the regional tourism organisation for NW Tasmania. Formerly a diplomat and DFAT policy analyst, Phil has worked on trade, aid, public diplomacy, consular, international security and nuclear trade, and bilateral relations with PNG, the US, and NZ, and was DFAT State Director for Tasmania. Prior to that Phil worked for the UN Development Programme in New York, West Africa and PNG. Phil also served as election monitor to the first elections in Cambodia (1992) and South Africa (1994) and was a peace monitor in Bougainville (2002). He has contributed to publications on human rights, election monitoring, and UN issues. Awarded in 2003 a Australian Service Medal. Phil was a guest of ABC Radio Richard Fidler’s ‘Conversations’ in November 2013.