While it will be after Easter before the final results are known, the Opposition Labor Leader Rebecca White has conceded defeat and handed a poisoned chalice to the Premier Jeremy Rockliff in trying to negotiate a minority government that is not guaranteed.

This is because of several factors such as:

  • the Rockliff Liberal’s clumsy and ham-fisted election campaign had trod on too many toes that could otherwise return him to power, and particularly the relative newcomer in state politics, the Jacqui Lambie Network
  • a most unusual victory speech ‘in denial’ at the end of election night in the slot usually reserved for the conceding party, revealing the continued hubris of Rockliff’s government
  • in reality, the Liberals were the biggest losers in the state election results by 11.9 %, compared to a small overall increase of 1 % by Labor

Reading the live electoral results (as at 3pm Sunday 24 March), the biggest loser is the Liberal Party who suffered swings of up to 21.9% in the electorates of Bass; 13.6% in Lyons, and 11.4% in Braddon.

At the end of the election evening one of the guest commentators on ABC-TV, incoming Liberal member for Franklin Eric Abetz, rightly said there would be a time of reflection for the outgoing Liberal government’s campaign strategy.

A minority government in spite of Labor

The nature of the Tasmanian political landscape is that the Liberals will always be the largest party followed by a collection of progressive parties, Labor being the largest followed by the Greens, the latter making in-roads into the traditional Labor voter base for several decades.

In this election the Jacqui Lambie Network has become a new powerful small grouping in state politics that could be kingmaker.

While Tasmanian Labor leader Rebecca White has consistently maintained that she would not deal with the Greens, she faced two choices: form a minority government with these other parties and independents or remain in opposition by handing power back to the Liberals. She chose the latter as it is convention for the Governor to pick the party with the most seats.

It’s a clever ploy knowing that it would be very difficult for Rockliff to form a minority government with a gaggle of minor parties and independents that his government offended.

If unable to form a minority government, the Governor will then ask White to negotiate a minority government with this gaggle.

Whichever the political complexion of the new minority government will be, the Jaquie Lambie Network will be the kingmaker.

Phil na Champassak is an entrepreneur and owns The Madsen Boutique Hotel in Penguin. He is a founding board member of Switch Tasmania (formerly the Cradle Coast Innovation Inc) and formerly a board director of the Cradle Coast Tourism Executive, the regional tourism organisation for NW Tasmania. He was also a diplomat and DFAT policy analyst, working on trade, aid, public diplomacy, consular, international security, and bilateral relations with PNG, the US, and NZ. Prior to that he worked for the UN Development Programme in New York, West Africa and PNG. Phil na Champassak also served as election monitor to the first elections in Cambodia (1992) and South Africa (1994) and was a peace monitor in Bougainville (2002). He has contributed to publications on human rights, election monitoring, and UN issues. He was awarded an Australian Service Medal in 2003.