Editor’s note: please scroll to the bottom of the page for the full methodology statement.
Media release – YouGov, 10 January 2023
The Tasmanian State Liberal vote is down 17% since the last election, YouGov
Only 26% say the Rockliff government “deserves to be re-elected”
YouGov’s newest public data poll has found that if a Tasmanian state election was held now, the current Liberal government would only receive 31% of the vote. This is down 17% from the 2021 state election where they received 48% of the vote.
The poll has found that Labor is supported by 27% of voters, the Jacqui Lambie Network by 20%, the Greens at 15% and independents at 7%.
Only 26% of voters think the current Liberal government deserves to be re-elected, with 53% thinking it’s time to give someone else a go.
If an election was held today, the result would produce a hung parliament. YouGov’s Public Data has projected that the 35 member Tasmanian Legislative Assembly would most likely be made up of; 11 Liberal, 10 Labor, 7 Jacqui Lambie Network, 6 Greens, and 1 independent.
Paul Smith, YouGov Director of Government, said, “The Tasmanian Liberal Party vote is currently 17% lower than it was at the 2021 state election. With only one in four voters believing the Rockliff Liberal Government deserves to be re-elected, the Liberal minority government is in deep trouble with voters whose number one concern right now is the cost of living.”
“A vote held today would break the mould of Tasmanian state politics by electing four parties to the Tasmanian Legislative Assembly. The Jacqui Lambie Network would be the third largest party after the Liberals and Labor, ahead of the Greens.”
Methodology: This survey was conducted between 21st December 2023 and 4th January 2024, with a sample of 850 voters, 170 per electorate. Results are weighted to be representative of the population by age, gender, past referendum vote for an effective sample of 769 with a margin of error of 3.6%.
YouGov correctly predicted the result of the recent referendum at 40% Yes, 60% No, and is a founding member of the Australian Polling Council, as well as a global leader in polling research.
Ted Mead
January 10, 2024 at 19:13
As I had already envisaged, it appears likely that the Jacqui Lambie Network will hold the balance of power in the House of Assembly. Whilst many will see this as a better scenario than at present, it’s still far from ideal.
53% claim it’s time to give someone else a go, but there’s a notable dearth of inspiring options to consider.
The first graph clearly indicates that Labor under Rebecca White will not hold governance in its own right. What a fizzer she is for Labor supporters!
The Greens vote has not risen, and maybe even two seats in Clark is wishful if a prominent independent stands. Furthermore, there’s no certainty for a Greens seat in Lyons even with an expanded house. Based on that, the Greens are destined to be an ongoing ineffectual coterie. As the numbers stand in this poll, not many independents are to be elected beyond Kristie Johnston and John Tucker, although David O’Byrne and Craig Garland may squeeze in, or perhaps Sue Hickey – if she throws her hat in the ring. Let’s see what the psephologists come up with!
And then there is the appalling potential for Erich to reappear in zombie style if he doesn’t get Liberal preselection.
Once again, there’s nothing to get excited about!
Chief Editor TT
January 11, 2024 at 09:10
We asked the pollster …
Reply …
Therefore their research probably undercounts the independent vote. It also in effect forces any other micro party voters like Animal Justice and SFF etc into either a JLN or ‘don’t know’ choice to reflect their non-mainstream position and dissatisfaction with the existing parliamentary parties.
Mike seabrook
January 13, 2024 at 19:55
So in the meantime, reset your employment and investment strategies – and then reassess them post-election.
This is a free country, and people and their families may stay or move.
Chris
January 15, 2024 at 16:33
Erica – like father, like son. Just ask any old German HEC employee who can recall his days as an extreme union hater!