Media release – EMRS, 7 December 2020
Voters Remain Steady in Endorsing the Government’s Performance
As the year draws to a close, and with the COVID-19 impacts still resonating, the latest EMRS poll reveals that Tasmanians’ voting intentions have remained remarkably steady with respect to the support levels for all three major parties.
After excluding undecided voters, the Liberal state government’s support remains at a high 52 per cent in November 2020, down just 2 percentage points from 54 per cent in August 2020.
This latest result reveals that the government is maintaining its significant lead over the Labor opposition. Labor support currently stands at 25 per cent, up by just 1 point from 24 per cent in August 2020.
The latest poll of 1,000 Tasmanian adults was conducted from the 17th to the 23rd of November.
“The November 2020 results confirm the strong ongoing endorsement of the government’s performance over recent months, and indicate that voters are reluctant to shift their support away from the government whilst developments related to COVID-19 are still very much to the fore, said Paul Jamrozik (EMRS’ Research Manager).
Far exceeding the 9 point lead it held in March 2020 – the first poll conducted in the context of the COVID-19 crisis – the current 52 per cent in voter support for the Liberal government represents a 27 point lead over Labor.
At the same time, there has been little change in decided voter support for The Greens, which has remained steady at 13 per cent currently; nor for an independent or other minor party, at 11 per cent currently.
With 61 per cent of voters currently nominating Premier Gutwein as their preferred Premier in November 2020, the latest poll has shown a fall of 9 percentage points in his personal support, down from 70 per cent in August, and returning closer to the 63 per cent recorded in May.
“Nonetheless, at 61 per cent, Premier Gutwein continues to hold the lead in the preferred Premier ratings, and the decrease in his personal support has not translated into a clear gain for the Opposition leader. Rebecca White currently sits at 26 per cent as the preferred option, up only marginally by 3 points from 23 per cent in the August poll, with a further 6 point increase being noted in voters currently stating they were ‘unsure’ or ‘neither’ as to their preferred Premier.
A single poll does not allow for definitive interpretations, at this stage, of Premier Gutwein’s level of personal support among voters, cautioned Mr Jamrozik.
“Further EMRS polling showing high levels of satisfaction with the government’s management of COVID-19 and of the state’s border control indicates that, despite any fluctuations in personal support for the leaders of the parties, the government’s performance as a whole will continue to be the key factor in determining voting intentions for some time to come.”
