ReachTEL (State): The Same Story Told Many Times

ReachTEL (Tas State): Lib 51.1 ALP 24.4 Green 14.7 Other 4.2 Undecided 5.6
Interpretation: Lib 53 ALP 27 Green 16 Other 4
Outcome based on this poll “if election was held now”: Liberal Majority Win (14-7-4 or 15-7-3)
Projection based on all polling: 14-7-4

A new State ReachTEL is out and it’s another sad story for the Labor-Green minority government’s re-election prospects, or even for anyone who believes that the prospect of a close election encourages accountability by both sides to the electorate. It’s a very happy story, of course, if you’re a diehard Tasmanian Liberal.

It’s the same story that has been told in ten EMRS polls and three previous ReachTELs since the start of 2011 – that the Liberal Opposition is headed for majority government. Every poll has projected to at least thirteen seat wins for the Liberals, and most have projected to more. Each has told a slightly different story about the potential scale of the victory and the possible division of the Government’s seat losses between Labor and the Greens. This one sits pretty much in the middle of the fairway. The overall picture is relentlessly consistent, and the clock is ticking down with only seven months to go. Even a new Abbott federal government will have their work cut out to do something annoying enough for the Liberal Party to stuff this one up from here.

This ReachTEL shows a slight improvement in Labor’s position since the first public state ReachTEL in June ( State Labor back to the lifeboats ). Compared to that poll, on the headline rate Labor has recovered by 4.7 points, and all other categories are down: Liberals by 1.4, Greens by 0.9, Other by 1.8 and Undecided by 0.6. The increase in Labor’s share of the vote is strongly statistically significant, to the point of being more or less certainly real, but the baseline for the comparison was the worst poll of the government’s term, so there’s not a lot of consolation there.

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http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/08/reachtel-state-same-story-told-many.html

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