Federal Labor Getting Smashed All Over Tasmania

A federal ReachTEL poll of all Tasmanian electorates shows a massive swing against the Gillard Government in Tasmania. Based on the poll results:

1. The Liberal Party is easily winning the Labor-held seats of Bass, Braddon and Lyons.

2. The Labor-held seat of Franklin is too close to call and is winnable for the Coalition.

3. Andrew Wilkie could lose Denison only if other parties preference against him, and not necessarily even then. Otherwise he is safe.

[..]

[Lyons]

This is the one that’s going to hurt. Dick Adams has held this seat for twenty years and been said to be in danger (usually incorrectly) at most of the elections in that time, but just when he’d beefed up the margin to what should be the “seat for life” level, along comes a swing of enormous proportions.
[..]

[Denison]

Now, I don’t believe for a moment that the Green vote in a once heartland seat has fallen into single figures, not even with the triple whammy of the party’s general decline, state disillusionment over the peace deal and continuing gouging of their vote by Andrew Wilkie. But this poll clearly underlines that the Greens are running fourth and cannot win, not that that is news to anyone. It confirms that Wilkie will make the final two easily, but it does suggest genuine uncertainty about who else will make it with him.

Read more, comment: http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/06/federal-labor-getting-smashed-all-over.html

Also: Prospects for the Tasmanian Senate Race

This article models possible outcomes for the six Tasmanian Senate seats up for election this year and concludes that an outcome of three Liberal, two Labor and one Green is by far the most likely.

“It is easy to play up the chances of the Greens missing out by pointing to the real chance that they will poll below a quota. However, to argue that they are at serious risk of losing, it is not enough to just project their vote as landing below a quota. It is necessary to also construct a credible scenario in which that causes them to lose, in spite of the likelihood of Labor preferences.”

Read more, comment: http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/06/prospects-for-tasmanian-senate-race.html

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