The increasing level of greenhouse gases has the planet on track for a 4 to 6 degree Celsius temperature rise by the turn of the century, a new report has found.
The Global Carbon Project, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, has calculated that emissions have increased by 54 per cent since 1990.
They rose by 3 per cent last year, and 2.6 per cent this year, despite the weak global economy.
Pep Canadell from the CSIRO was one of the authors of the report, and says on current trends, governments globally will have no chance of averting dangerous climate change.
“We are now following perfectly on track of the emissions path that will take us to anywhere between 4 and 6 degrees by 2100, if we don’t do anything different from what we are doing now,” he said.
The figure is at least double the 2 degree target set by UN members struggling for a global deal on climate change.
Dr Canadell says he is surprised by this year’s emissions growth, given the US and Europe are in financial turmoil.
But the study says a few big developing nations are fuelling the emissions growth, with 80 per cent of growth in 2011 due to growth in China.
China’s carbon emissions grew 9.9 per cent in 2011 after rising 10.4 per cent in 2010, and now comprise 28 per cent of all carbon dioxide emissions, compared with 16 per cent for the United States.
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As United Nations climate talks enter their final week in Doha on the Persian Gulf, scientists are increasing the pressure on governments to do more to cut the discharge of heat-trapping gases.
In the latest Climate Change snapshot, they’re warning that emissions are at an unprecedented high, increasing on average by 3% per year, with the bulk produced by one country – China.
Scientists have described the growth as “shocking” and without drastic action, they warn governments have no chance of keeping the planet to the agreed 2oC temperature rise by 2100.
One of the authors of the report is Dr Pep Canadell from the CSIRO, Global Carbon project, and one of the lead authors in the paper published in [b]Nature Climate Change[/b].
Dr Canadell: [i] So our analysis showed that by the end of this year, 2012, global emissions from fossil fuels are set to reach an unprecedented amount of 36,000,000,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide. Just to put this thing in perspective, this is 58% over 1990 levels, which is the Kyoto Protocol reference year, and growing at about three times faster than they were growing during the 90s.[/i]
[i] In 2012 emissions grew at about 2.6% and about 3% in 2011.[/i]
[i]80% per cent of the growth we’ve seen specifically last year, in 2011 came from the growth in emissions in China and the rest split among the rest of the emerging economies in the developing world.[/i]
[i] If we look at what has happened last year and what we’re predicting this year and what has happened overall over the last 10 years, we are now falling perfectly on track of the emissions path that is going to take us to anywhere between 4 and 6oC by 2100…[/i]
[i]The growth in emissions is actually shocking because remember that some of the bigger economies like in Europe and the US, they are still going through major economic difficulties so their production is lower than it would be had it not been for the global economic crisis.[/i]
[i] So we have seen some decline in emission in Europe and the US and we are wondering if this decline may disappear or as these regions you know move out of the economic crisis that still is underway.[/i]
[Reference: ABC AM radio Monday 3 December 2012 – Interview with Sarah Clarke – [i]China takes lion-share of Carbon Emission growth[/i] – http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2012/s3645714.htm ]
