LABOR’S primary vote and Julia Gillard’s approval are continuing to improve, although switching to Kevin Rudd could turn the government’s current prospect of defeat into the chance of victory, according to the Age/Nielsen poll.
Tony Abbott’s approval has fallen 3 percentage points to a record low of 36 per cent as controversy has raged about his character, but the opposition would still get a 3 per cent swing for a comfortable win in an election held now. The Coalition is on a two-party vote of 53 per cent, down 1 point in three weeks, to Labor’s 47 per cent, up a point.
Ms Gillard leads Mr Abbott as preferred PM by 3 points: she is on 47 per cent (up 1 point) while Mr Abbott is on 44 per cent (down 1). In an important finding in light of claims about Mr Abbott having problems with women and an allegation of intimidatory behaviour towards a fellow student in 1977, he is 12 points behind as preferred PM among women, but leads by 5 points among men.
While the results generally are good for Ms Gillard, marking a change in political mood as the debate swings off the carbon tax and on to the PM’s positive agenda, the comparison with what might happen if Mr Rudd was reinstated will be used by the increasingly active Rudd camp as its steps up its agitation for change.
Labor’s primary vote has increased 2 points to 34 per cent in the poll of 1400 taken Thursday to Saturday, in the wake of Ms Gillard’s absence from the public stage after the death of her father. The ALP vote has risen steadily by about 2 points a month over the past four months – a total of 8 points from 26 per cent to 34 per cent. The Coalition remains on 45 per cent; its primary vote has fallen 4 points since early May.
The Greens are down 1 point to 10 per cent, which is a fall of 4 points since early June.
The PM’s approval has risen 3 points to 42 per cent; her disapproval, on 53 per cent, is down 4 points. She has a net approval of minus 11, which is 7 points better than last month. This is her highest approval and lowest disapproval since May 2011.
Disapproval of Mr Abbott has risen by 2 points to 59 per cent, a new personal high. His net approval has worsened by 5 points to minus 23 per cent, a new personal low and the lowest for an opposition leader since August 2009, shortly before Malcolm Turnbull lost the job.
Since early June, Ms Gillard has substantially narrowed Mr Rudd’s lead as preferred Labor leader, while fewer people than before think the ALP should change leaders.
But if the change were made, the poll has Labor’s primary vote on 44 per cent, 10 points higher than its present level, and the ALP leading the Coalition in two-party terms 53-47 per cent – an exact reversal of the current result.
Mr Rudd remains much more popular than Ms Gillard but his support has fallen while hers has risen; 55 per cent (down 7 points since early June) prefer him as Labor leader while 37 per cent (up 5) opt for her. Among Labor voters, Ms Gillard is ahead of Mr Rudd by 52 per cent to 47 per cent; she trails among Coalition supporters 28-60 per cent.
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