It beats me why I should be dragged kicking and screaming into writing an article for TT. The worthy site appears to be going along rather nicely with a wide range of opinion, covering many issues. I had retired the tea leaves and the crystal ball required a polish and I need a damned good holiday. The deciding factor was being needled about my perception and what I thought of the state election campaign now in its official second week, which appears to have lasted for over 10 months.
IT BEATS me why I should be dragged kicking and screaming into writing an article for TT. The worthy site appears to be going along rather nicely with a wide range of opinion, covering many issues. I had retired the tea leaves and the crystal ball required a polish and I need a damned good holiday. The deciding factor was being needled about my perception and what I thought of the state election campaign now in its official second week, which appears to have lasted for over 10 months.
I had never doubted for one moment that the state election this year would be a very dirty affair and as others have commented, the ALP has imported a federal apparatchik with good credentials for dishing it out. Only time will tell whether it was worth taking this course of action.
The Bartlett government is on the nose or so we are told by opinion polls and pundits. I tend to agree and while the vast majority of people make up their minds how they’re going to vote well before an election, and there are always last-minute changes and it’s surprising how few people need to change their mind to unseat a politician. Much of the mess that the Bartlett government finds itself in is very much of its own making. The transition from Paul Lennon to Bartlett seemed like a breath of fresh air initially. There were even people referring to the new Premier as “Jed” Bartlett of the West Wing fame. But early appearances only flattered to deceive. I refuse to believe that anyone would take the job of Premier and expect that the past, especially the recent past, would be forgotten. He must have known what he was getting into and the ramifications thereof.
For a while, the media dwelt lovingly on the image and with the transition in leadership of the other parties, Tasmania found itself with three young, bright male politicians vying for photo ops and quotable quotes. Such things are transient and the vision of the three amigos dissipated soon enough. If you really want to chart the slide of Bartlett, it was well underway when he lost Paula Wriedt through a combination of poor judgment, the Minister’s health and sudden retirement. The Premier was jerked into reality and the thumb ring, iPod and family man with bicycle became the man with the bucket and shovel, cleaning up the mess and rich fodder for the brilliance of Kudelka and other cartoonists. His predecessor was to blame for many things and they need no recitation by me. Policies and contracts were locked into place and the key thrown away, leaving the hapless Bartlett unable to undo some things that should have been undone and perhaps unwilling because of the vicious infighting that plagues the ALP. Any sign of being slightly soft is immediately interpreted by some as weakness and attempts to look strong became somewhat laughable.
How many lines were drawn in the sand?
I’m afraid I was too busy to keep score: under normal circumstances, that type of nit picking is very interesting but not when you are committed to writing a book. There were that many lines drawn in the sand over so many issues that the phrase itself became something of standing joke. Anyone knows that if you draw a line in the sand, it should be above the high water mark or else it will be washed away and all were eradicated in such a fashion.
I have tried to come to grips with who David Bartlett really is and what he stands for, with limited success. To a certain extent, I am reliant on secondhand information as I’ve yet to meet the man. If he possesses a vision then it has to be more than mere words about being clever, kind, and connected – those three key words that are now met with more than a certain amount of derision if used in close conjunction with the Premier’s name. On the one hand, I could make a very good case for showing mercy when looking at the very negative Liberal party advertisements on TV. So many date back to the days of the unlamented Paul Lennon where so many of the killer quotes lie but the Premier can’t avoid his own headlines. That type of advertising was always going to be used against the government and really, there is no effective rebuttal. I have heard the Premier described as a man who could be trusted by some and others, rather regrettably too many, have said that he is shifty, narcissistic and will not take advice. As he will find, the voters will make up their own minds.
Having said that, I’ve admired the way the Premier has attempted to drag the education system, kicking and screaming, into the 21st century and I have no compunction in saying that I think he is basically on the right track but to carry out fundamental reform, a politician must take a certain constituency with him. I am not going to descend to the level of the public service which talks about clients and stakeholders, which is one of the reasons I stopped writing. Rather, I’ll say bluntly the Education Department is out-of-touch and sclerotic and the teachers may have a case but it’s well-hidden. The mooted Federal reforms will have to be implemented for the good of the country, not just this state. The teaching of English in particular comes as welcome as a cold Boag’s on a hot day and I hope the Federal ALP is reelected to introduce them, despite the scare campaign already being run by the Trogs of the so-called Liberal right. After English, maths needs a revision and also a grounding in computation without computers.
In politics, the term ‘poisoned chalice’ is kicked around freely and this surely applies to the Health portfolio and I don’t blame the Deputy Premier for wanting out but her posturing on what Labor will do after the next election lies not in her hands. That is another department with a terminal condition, in need of drastic reform and the selective removal of vested interests. Deng-Xiaoping famously said that it didn’t matter whether a cat was black or white but whether it caught mice. In both Health and Education there is a gender imbalance at senior level. I don’t give a hoot about whether the lesbian mafia is running either department but the “Petra Principle” applies – too many promoted beyond their level of competence and it shows in guerrilla and internecine warfare.
So with about three weeks to go where do we stand?
I tend to agree with Dr Kevin Bonham about the last EMRS poll. I don’t question their methodology or the representativeness of the sample (1000 across the 5 electorates is acceptable with a + or – 5% error of margin. Quite clearly though, the fact that nearly a quarter of the population hasn’t made up its mind which way to jump is alarming: I have always maintained that in federal elections voters have decided as much as 18 months out about how they will vote.
Tasmania is different, with Hare-Clark, wide divergencies of opinion within electorates and politics is local and personal. Not being a psephologist but having crunched a few numbers in my time, I would have liked another poll within a few days of the last to look for a knock-on effect. If the “undecided” vote holds up until voting day, it is clear that there can be no favorites and we will have a minority government of some description.
It is not my practice to comment on MPs as people but I will say this from the point of view of an average TV viewer. Of the three leaders, the one with the most visceral appeal is without doubt, Nick McKim – the man who can’t be Premier.
He is the best Parliamentary performer and a real asset, so expect more dirt despite the pious protestations of the Hodgman Liberal team and Team Bartlett, that they won’t change their tactics is patently absurd. The Dutch auctions have begun and the forestry lobby will be pleased. It will the first but not the last time when they sing “Anything you can do, I can do better” but the to tune will different on election night.
Perhaps the most interesting development in recent times has been the activities of “Our Common Ground” and it’s articulate spokesperson Judy Tierney and the group seeking to restore Parliament to a respectable size. The problem is that with less than three weeks left, there will be insufficient momentum for their ideas but at least it shows thinking Tasmanians are doing just that and the ephemeral if somewhat overhyped election rhetoric is ignored, there could be a real chance of doing something concrete within the next four years. I would like to think so. Let us work together towards harmony and without rancour.
Umbrellas up and now perhaps I can get back to my book.
