Minority government EXCLUSIVE
14 Mar, 2010 01:00 AM
TASMANIA is destined for minority government after this Saturday’s election, according to an exclusive opinion poll for The Sunday Examiner.
But the level of undecided voters remains high, with three seats too close to call.
The Enterprise Marketing and Research Services survey points to the Liberals securing nine seats, Labor eight and the Greens five.
The poll, conducted last Tuesday and Wednesday, asked the voting intentions of 1000 people from across the state’s five electorates.
While Bass will maintain its status quo with two Liberal, two Labor and one Greens MHA, the other electorates are set for a shake-up.
The poll shows:
•Former federal MP Michael Ferguson taking the place of retired Bass Liberal MHA Sue Napier, and school principal Brian Wightman as the frontrunner to replace retiring Bass Labor MHA Jim Cox, with incumbents Michelle O’Byrne (Labor), Peter Gutwein (Liberal) and Kim Booth (Greens) all returned.
•Big-spending Braddon Liberal candidate Adam Brooks challenging running mate Brett Whiteley for his seat, with Greens candidate Paul O’Halloran set to enter Parliament alongside the re-elected Jeremy Rockliff (Liberal) and Bryan Green (Labor).
•Lyons Labor incumbents David Llewellyn and Heather Butler battling for a second Labor seat behind veteran Michael Polley, with the Liberals picking up a second seat and Greens MHA Tim Morris returned.
•Scott Bacon, the son of former premier Jim Bacon, winning a seat in Denison while Graeme Sturges loses out and Lisa Singh and Premier David Bartlett fight for their political lives; the Greens’ candidate Helen Burnet likely to gain a second seat alongside incumbent Cassy O’Connor; and Liberal candidate Matthew Groom replacing retired Denison Liberal MHA Michael Hodgman.
•Greens leader Nick McKim topping the poll in Franklin ahead of Opposition Leader Will Hodgman, with the Liberals gaining a second seat at Labor’s expense; and Deputy Premier Lara Giddings trailing candidate David O’Byrne for a seat, while Labor’s other sitting members, Ross Butler and Daniel Hulme, miss out.
READ MORE ELECTION COVERAGE, (in The Sunday Examiner)
EXCLUSIVE STATE ELECTION POLL: Pages 3-7
Matthew Denholm in the Australian Saturday:
Power may shift but policies stay the same
Slogans aside, there are few points of difference between the main parties ahead of next weekend’s Tasmanian election
WHEN Tasmanians vote a week from today, it appears they will vote for change. Polls suggest that change will be a different political flavour (a shift to the Liberals), or a different type of government (minority), or both.
Unless there is a late surge in support for David Bartlett’s Labor or Will Hodgman’s Liberals, one or other of them will be governing in minority after March 20, ending 12 years of ALP majority rule.
So what would change, if anything, under a minority government? Would Hodgman’s Liberals, or a reinvigorated Bartlett administration, transform the island’s policy landscape?
The reality is that in policy terms, cutting through the spin and slogans of four weeks of campaigning, there are few points of difference between the main parties. On the economy, neither is proposing to dump Labor’s longstanding commitment to net debt-free status.
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Related Coverage
* Labor headed for poll wipeout The Australian, 24 Feb 2010
* Greens eye record Tassie election result The Australian, 24 Feb 2010
* Bartlett warned off minority option The Australian, 21 Feb 2010
* Hodgman keeps his counsel The Australian, 19 Feb 2010
* Libs pledge code as Bartlett funds chopper The Australian, 14 Feb 2010
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Both appear content to run deficits in the short term, but with the aim of returning to surplus in the out years.
Both have cut or promise to cut land tax and payroll tax, although the Liberals are promising to go further and may flesh this out tomorrow when Hodgman will finally launch his campaign. Neither main party is suggesting any new taxes, privatisations or a big shift in the state’s industry mix.
In terms of infrastructure, both are committed to the rollout of the national broadband network, irrigation schemes and improvements to the north-south Midland Highway. Here, again, the Liberals would go further, planning to transform the widely derided “goat track” into a four-lane freeway. Labor says it is more responsible to improve the worst sections of the road and focus the infrastructure spending on health.
To this end, Labor has pitched a $565 million plan to buy back Hobart Private Hospital, expand the Royal Hobart Hospital and build a new women’s and children’s hospital.
However, 60 per cent of thecash required is contingent on Kevin Rudd’s health reforms being backed by premiers or a referendum. The Liberals have their own plan to revitalise the hospital precinct, arguing it is contingent on nothing other than their election.
Trust and government accountability are other leading issues in this campaign, but even here the differences are not as sharp as they were.
Labor is still trying to live down the scandal-littered administration of Paul Lennon. However, Bartlett has made some amends since replacing Lennon in May 2008, creating an independent corruption watchdog and making significant improvements to Freedom of Information laws and whistleblower protections.
On the environment, both parties back ongoing logging of old-growth forests and support the Gunns pulp mill. Neither is proposing any new forest reserves.
Perhaps the biggest area of policy difference is education.
