A startling image has sprung to mind (and of such stuff are created newspaper political cartoons).
There’s an extremely anxious-looking David Bartlett on his bike, pumping furiously on the pedals, heading as fast as he can along a country road, hoping he can catch his Prime Minister on holiday. The image was evoked by the report that Kevin Rudd will be taking a break with his family in Tasmania at Cradle Mountain and Freycinet rather than opting for his usual hols in Queensland.
Surely with the Tasmanian election just a few weeks away there must be a chance for the beleaguered Bartlett to have an opportunity to grab some words of support from his PM at this time? And if the PM eschews the possibility of them meeting how would the electorate see it?
Perhaps there could be a chat away from Kevin’s holiday spots. Say Swansea – or perhaps a picnic lunch for them alongside the woodchip mill at Triabunna?
Imagining David on his bike (seemingly his preferred mode of transport considering the number of newspaper photo opportunities we’ve seen) – he would, of course, be wearing his crash helmet. He wouldn’t want to risk a fall that could be construed as another political mishap. Deliberate backflips from the political saddle don’t count.
But away from this fanciful image to comment from the mainland on the March 20 election.
Writing in the Weekend Australian, sister newspaper (or should that be big brother?) of our Sunday Tasmanian and the Mercury, contributing editor Peter Van Onselen had pertinent words as part of an overview of a coming spate of state elections (and a federal election likely late in the year). He said if there’s to be a change of government in any of these it’s likely to be in Tasmania:
“The David Bartlett-led Labor government has lost two deputies and been beset by scandals. The relatively new Premier is trying to push through difficult budget measures to secure the state’s finances that are anything but popular. Even with a proportional electoral system that favours the parties of the Left, the Hare-Clark system, Labor is unlikely to win a fourth term in office.”
HERE: BaBa Barty
And he added this later:
“Labor’s most vulnerable administration, in Tasmania, is elected according to the Hare-Clark system. It is the only lower-house electoral system that sees MPs elected proportionately.
“It is not a winner-takes-all individual member system as in other states (and federally). Electorates are multi-member electorates.
“The system makes it more likely that a strong minor party can win seats in the house of government, in the case of Tasmania the Australian Greens.
“While the Liberals should win more seats than the Labor Party, it is possible the Greens would choose to support a minority Labor government if they secured the balance of power.
“But if voters turn away from the government in droves it will make it politically difficult for the Greens to be seen to have ignored the shifting voter sentiments and back a state government for a fourth term in power.
“Recent reports of factional divisions inside the Tasmanian Liberal Party, where the moderates and conservatives have been at war for years, looks to be the only thing that can save the Labor government.
“The competition for media attention in a year that will include four elections will be fierce, perhaps forcing parties to do more than the usual spin they engage in to get heard.
“But it might also have the reverse effect, setting up a situation where the usual lowbrow generic advertising is replaced with more detailed policy announcements to attract voters’ attention.
“If that were to happen, it would be a welcome shift from the growing trend by political parties to operate in sound bites and as small targets to avoid scrutiny.”
