PETER TUCKER, www.tasmanianpolitics.blogspot.com
Liberal leader Will Hodgman has pulled what I think is his most significant move in his nearly eight year (yes, that long!) parliamentary career by naming Vanessa Goodwin as a candidate for the Pembroke upper house by-election (something suggested he should do by Matt Denholm in the Oz on Saturday).
It really is a master-stroke from Hodgman – not without serious risks, of course, but really decisive moves rarely come danger-free. Here are the up-sides:
* It takes the political momentum and control of a decent part of the news cycle away from premier Bartlett and Labor. And not, like most stories, just a few days’ headlines. This will run for the next 6-8 weeks up until the election is held, and after if Goodwin wins.
* It allows Hodgman to take the high political ground for a while – it makes Bartlett have to respond to him, which is not the usual premier-opposition leader relationship.
* It puts Bartlett in something of a, ah, poo-sandwich: if Labor does not stand a candidate they will be accused of running scared, ceding more high ground to the Libs, and if they do – and then lose – well, that will be read as a vote of no confidence by the electorate of Bartlett’s premiership.
* And if the Libs WIN, whether they beat a Labor candidate or not, the benefits for Hodgman up to the 2010 election are immense. First, he gets another Liberal in parliament, and when you only have a team of seven, one more makes a big difference. Second, it allows him to begin to convince the electorate he has a “new fresh team” ready after the election: the almost certain inclusion of Michael Ferguson in Bass, Goodwin, himself, Gutwein, Whiteley, Rockliff … starting to look like they match Labor. And third, it allows another candidate to take the second seat in Franklin, the seat that would have gone to Goodwin.
Then there are the risks (Sue Neales at the Merc canvasses some HERE):
* The main risk is that Goodwin loses. This is would be bad for Hodgman, but if he, the party and Goodwin handle the campaign properly, not fatal.
