phill Parsons
UP until now the Victorian Black Saturday fires of the 7th of February have been blamed on arsonists [1 arrest], greenies [no arrests but plenty of assertions from angry victims seeking someone or thing to blame and the usual redneck suspects including the insensitive clown] and the SEC [1 class action claim in the courts].

With temperatures greater than those of a century and a half of record, with the longest drought in Victoria’s recorded experience, the Country Fire Authority predicted a potentially bad day based on the weather forecast.

Now we know and must assume they had underestimated the danger that fire presented in these conditions, conditions which are modeled to become more and more frequent as a result of humans assault on nature, including carbon pollution increasing climate instability.

Having enjoyed the fruits of carbon pollution we are almost on the point of understanding the potential future additional costs of those fruits, certain down payments having been taken by the climate including drought and heat waves with more payments to come.

Up until now we can claim we didn’t really understand what our carbon pollution means for us as we destroy the climate stability upon which we depend, but from now on we can no longer, as a society, claim that.

It is not other animals suffering, tragedy far from our communities, farmers suffering from drought [famine] in some distant region or floods in the far north. We have brought fire down upon a major city’s peri-urban, onto the heads of close relatives and into the orbit of urban electorates.

Therein lays the rub, the responsibility. Greenie or not, we all stand responsible for the millions of dead, the waste of resources and a whole year of carbon pollution released in one week.

For Greens it is a sign of failure to convince our fellows to act on carbon pollution in time. For the rest it represents a failure to listen. Climate criminals and carbon terrorists; here stands your own home grown 9/11, the one you made by your ignorance and greed.

The disconnect between the national outpouring of grief and the arguments about the deferment of action on carbon pollution shows how poorly understood is the relationship between carbon emissions and the results.

The deaths of over 400 in a coal mine disaster would see mining unions pressing for changes, governments demanding them and industry complying. This is the death toll the period from the 28th of January to the 8th of February brought. ¿Will connecting the dots be avoided because the enormity of it will change all?.

The Solutions.

There are none.

Australians have to face up to the fact that the hotter and drier climate we are creating for south eastern Australia, if we are able to stabilize it at some point, is the one we will have to live with for millennia.

Added to the categories of fires has been catastrophic and we have definitely had our first.

Fuel reduction burning may have no effect on such fires as it appears to be the case with this one. Only an absence of fuel will prevent them from spreading and that is next to impossible to achieve and retain the values that we expect from the countryside.

Mitigating the changes to the climate will not return south eastern Australia to the climate it experienced in the century before last, which has gone forever. It is possible that the extremes Victoria experienced in 1939 were related to the climate catastrophe our business as usual approach will ensure, it is certain that the 2009 event is definitely related.

Whist we were not aware of, or indeed sure, that what we are doing by burning fossil fuels and ignoring the limits of the planets systems to cope with human activity we bore no guilt. Now degrees of guilt lie through society, those deciding to continue with unrestrained carbon pollution carrying the most responsibility.

Even though there have been warnings and reports now it is undeniable and we have the responsibility that knowledge brings us, to change our habits. Continuing on as before is no longer an option.

We have to embrace adaptation to adjust to the new conditions that face south eastern Australia, currently including the eastern half of Tasmania. Measures to address a new fire regime during the drying of the south east will hopefully save lives and may also reduce carbon emissions.

Mitigation of emissions, reducing carbon pollution, is believed to be better for the long term by stabilizing the climate. Even if it is too late we still need to take positive action anyway. The homeless will not want to remain so and life still goes on.

Whilst solid wood product is stored carbon, building homes of combustible materials in areas exposed to fires fueled by drought, high temperatures and wind is certain to see those houses and other buildings lost unless they have automatic and well resourced fire fighting systems.

If wood is to be allowed as a building material then all such houses need a fire proof shelter of last resort, as do all isolated homes. Preferably underground but certainly with a concrete water tank attached and filled for such an emergency.

All towns need either one shelter at each house or community bunkers. Certainly each school needs one for all students and staff. Relocation of the fire station to the school with standing operating instruction to attend the school first, especially in circumstances like Black Saturday, if it occurs during the week.

If large bunkers have oxygen supply problems then schools need to be in areas where bushfire is not a danger or closed on bad fire weather days.

School emergency plans need to be reviewed in the light of the amount of warning that towns received. Primary school students were sent home in the 1967 fires in Hobart.

If there are to be evacuations, especially of the elderly and/or children, then they need to be proactive and occur well before the weather for a bad fire day occurs. We would be totally confused about stay or go had the 200 evacuees from Marysville recreation ground, escorted by Victoria Police at the height of the firestorm, also been victims.

Power supply should join the telephone and be underground to reduce the chance of accidental ignitions, to secure the supply into towns and to reduce the hazard of working with down lines.

For isolated locations alternative energy supplies should be leased to the householder by the SEC, the poles and wires withdrawn in the interests of safety. Reduced demand on the power supply system also meets carbon emission targets and adds to the value of existing generating capacity by deferring investment in new capacity, besides improving safety.

All fire fighting pumps sold in Australia should be diesel fueled as they are less prone to evaporating fuel in hot conditions.

The wooden paling fence must become illegal in fire prone areas, replaced by the non combustible barrier; the steel fence [solid or wire], the stone wall or the haha.

A garden mulch of rock will last an age, bark is no longer acceptable. The lawn needs to be watered with grey and storm water to keep it green if houses or towns are going to have a vegetation element.

Certainly hard leaved trees like eucalypts, although marvelously adapted to the climate,
along with other combustible exotics, whilst they make a unique landscape and provide a safe harbor for natural wildlife, also present a hazard.

Balancing the desire to have a pleasant environment, the requirements of nature and of safety will not be an easy task.

Houses in paddocks burnt and the fire spread rapidly across the landscape passing over what should have been barriers to its rapid spread.

Mega fires will only come so often, although the frequency of potentially bad days will go up, and if the temperature and rainfall change sufficiently the vegetation will change, thus altering the fuel load

People have to live in the settlements and on the properties all the other days when there is no major fire. A barren landscape will not remain attractive to all of them. The infrastructure and houses need to change if the Yarra Valley expects to be a place for Melbournians to live and holiday.

For wildlife this has been a disaster and the Christmas Island pipistrelle bat may now have a suite of new critically endangered companion species. Perhaps some have gone past that last threshold and are now effectively extinct. Leadbeaters possum is one such candidate.

Here is the lesson about the refuges we offered. The National Parks and other reserves no longer provide the security we thought they did, our changing of the climate reducing their value for the endangered species we have created through the complex of our activities from habitat destruction to climate instability.

This is far from a completely exhaustive list of actions. The inquiry in Victoria will bring out many more points from those on the ground.

However, Tasmania needs to take the lessons from what happened in Victoria. The east coast has had dry periods and the highest recorded temperature. It is not immune from forest fire or wind. With the Australian Governments co-operating more closely over a number of matters the recommendations from the Victorian inquiry need to be considered for the Tasmanian context and action taken.

There is also another lesson about the new climate we are creating by burning up fossil fuel and it is being masked by the tragedy of Black Saturday. It is the death in the week before Black Saturday of some 200 heatwave victims. 3 days of temperatures over 43dC. increased deaths, mainly among the over 65’s.

The increased number of fire days will create the conditions for additional deaths among susceptible people. Those with heart conditions and the frail aged have their condition exacerbated by high temperatures. A study from the year before shows death rates among the over 65 increases by 15% on days when the temperature is over 30dC.

Unlike Victoria, Tasmania may not burn much coal, but unless it seriously adapts to the new climates as they develop, taking a long term view, inaction will be as inexcusable as Victoria ignoring its responsibility for the costs of dirty brown coal fueled power.

We, along with Victoria cannot hide behind excuses about the unexpected, Black Saturday has told us what our future is, its time to adapt and comprehensively and effectively mitigate in time to prevent a complete catastrophe.

A green cloak is no longer sufficient disguise.

phill Parsons does not wish to show disrespect to the communities that have suffered in this tragedy but has to ask the questions and give his opinion in the hope that there is not an avoidable recurrence.