phill Parsons
IN 2006 I commented that Beattie needed Green preferences to get across the line. The Final Tally showed Beattie elected in has own right with 50.84%. eattie retired as Premier leaving Anna Bligh as the incumbent.

Kevin Bonham would make more of the figures were he interested but here are some from election night that go beyond the superficial reporting of win and loose.

Brisbane Central in 2006 had the same number of candidates as this year [5] but a single issue party campaigned for daylight saving in S.E. Queensland [DSQ]. The Green vote fell from 18.28% to 17.13% with DSQ taking 3.87%. The ALP will take this seat on Green preferences.

Indooroopily with 68.99% counted had the former Labor member and now Green candidate behind the ALP by 0.18%. The outcome of the preference distribution of DSQ vote will determine if the Ronan Lee is cut up for the ALP and LNP or if the Labor vote is distributed.

The LNP is at 44.45% so if the Green votes are distributed to decide the final LNP is likely to win with about 1/3 of Green preferences flowing that way in previous elections. At the end of counting another 5 polling booths figures needed to be included. 68.99% of the vote had been counted.

The second largest Green voting seat, Mt Coot-tha, had increased its vote from 21.73% in 2006 to 23.55% with 64.47% of the vote counted. Again 5 Booths yet to return and the ALP and LNP neck and neck below 40%. [ALP ahead by 1.22%].

Of the 10 other seats I paid attention to the Green vote fell in Hervey Bay, Redlands, Currumbin, Surfers Paradise and Maryborough.

Maryborough is interesting in that it is the electorate where the Traveston Dam is proposed. The LNP opposed the dam and the Greens gave preferences to Labor,

whose policy is to build the dam, in 14 seats. Chris Foley is elected, an Independent. The Green vote fell from 9.98% to 3.53%. Supporters there sure know how to say thanks for the support from headquarters

Still, with maturing realpolitik, the bigger picture must prevail over a few former loyalists and those who vote for you. It the advice you always get at headquarters. You know 1 baby, some bathwater, what’s it matter when some environmental gains will be made and the preferences will go to your 1 MP.

The other seats where the Green vote fell are predicted on the 2 party preferred [2PP] to go to LNP, except Redlands where the ALP falls over the line. With falls of under 2% this may be candidate or campaign related.

Cairns, Glasshouse, Mudgeeraba, Ferny Grove, and Stretton see an increased Green vote. Glasshouse goes from 10.69% to 17.92% with 5 booths still to be returned.

Mudgeeraba’s Green vote rose to 6.81% from 1.82% in 2006. 5 Booths still to be returned, but on the 2PP, the seat goes to the LNP. Protest vote by former Nationals or good Green candidate?

Gladstone, the home of coal exporting, returns Liz Cunningham, the Independent Member. 2.59% vote Green. No Green vote recorded in 2006.

Overall, the outcome is Anna Bligh is the first elected female Premier, with a prediction of a low of 49 seats and a high of 53 from a unicameral 88 seat parliament.

The experiment of joining the coalition into one party, the LNP, has seen up to 9 seats gained with a swing of about 4%. Whether this translates to other states of the Federal sphere is an unknown but conservatives in Queensland must be taking heart as a charismatic leader and a government in office for a long time will seem easier pickings from a stronger base.

The Quensland nationals still exist as a Federal party and are showing strong divergence from their coalition allies on some issues. Will this split advantage the Greens in their bid for a Senator from Queensland?

What does it mean for a possible early election in Tasmania?. Who can tell what is in the minds of the backroom boys. The Premier claims confidently that it will be March next year much thought will be given to the pork issue along with the way the numbers could play in the complex of Hare Clarke voting. With the conservative vote on the upswing in 2 states and the NT and the economy on the downswing will Bartlett play honest or politician.

Realpolitik positions have apparently been confirmed by the Green vote in Queensland.