Nostradamus
If the Bartlett government thinks certain issues will go away, they are gravely mistaken (and yes, that includes the railways, an area in which Sturgo has shown he is the next thing to useless). The issue of the pulp mill, not just the legislative aspect, appears to touch just about anyone you care to name. Everybody has a view and the government certainly is not popular on the handling of that particular matter among others. Personally, I would be concerned about the precedent of bringing people before the bar of the House on many issues, while my more acquisitive self would like the peanut and soft drink franchise, together with the right to set a fee for entrance. However, under the Westminster system Parliament is sovereign, it is not a court of law and any unlawful acts should be dealt with accordingly. Not often that I agree with the eponymous legal scribe but on this occasion, he has a point.
THOSE familiar with life in the armed forces would instinctively know the term snafu. For those of you that don’t ask but it commences situation normal all …ed.up and that is pretty much how the local political landscape appears at the present time. My grandmother, a woman of great wisdom, frequently admonished me by saying: “If you can’t say anything good about someone, say nothing.” However, politics is an area where it is virtually impossible to heed the wise injunction or at least it is for a putative contributor to the Tasmanian Times.
It is axiomatic that with the running of the Melbourne Cup, Australia now commences the silly season. The newspapers lose weight in terms of news but contain more calorific advertising. Our letter boxes are already stuffed with catalogues exhorting us to spend, spend, spend, especially with Christmas in sight, then the New Year sales and the apparent period of stasis until the country re-awakens in mid-February. I was pondering whether this year would break the mould, largely because it appears that Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is intent on pushing on with the business of government and secondly, until Obama is inaugurated as President on 20 January 2009, I have been convinced that we live in a time of heightened danger from terrorist attacks. Speaking with a friend of mine who writes extensively on the subject, Australia is long overdue for such an attack, although the most dangerous plot so far has been thwarted.
Personally I am sceptical about Australians relinquishing the couple of months of what has been irreverently referred to as “white man’s dreamtime.” The person who made that comment is in no way racist, nor was he mocking aboriginal culture but he offered the astute observation that during this strange time from roughly mid-November to mid-February, everything appears deliberately geared down and moves glacially, especially during those days that encompass Christmas and the New Year – everything except for frenzied shopping, along with boozing and the beach. Tasmanians, like most Australians, will probably be sapped and stupefied by the heat and the credit cards will take a terrible hammering.
Thankfully on a more positive note, Christmas in Tasmania, despite the weather, which can range from a rather chilly too hot, appears to bring people together and the spirit of Christmas lives. I have often dreamed of it continuing. While it is true there is extensive hypocrisy when people who barely talk to you during the year greet you like a long-lost friend and invite you to have a drink but in many respects it matters little whether Christmas is regarded as a religious festival: the spirit of community, often neglected re-emerges and we evince great sympathy for those who have less. I live in hope that the spirit will last but by March things are invariably back to normal. The homeless, hopeless, unemployed and poor remain with us and the services of charities will be much in demand. Can I issue an early plea for people to be generous to the less fortunate?
Looking at the international and national scene, one wonders whether this year’s end and the ushering in of 2009 will be different. While I could think of many cogent reasons that it should be, the likelihood remains that we will pass through the period of stupor and emerge pretty much the same next year although the cricket series between Australia and South Africa promises to be a lively affair, although somewhere along the way a combination of madness and booze in the form of 20/20 matches will probably make sure people stay awake but with terrible hangovers.
So where do we stand now? The week before last in Parliament saw Will Hodgman and the Liberals decide, in what passes for their wisdom, not to support a Greens’ motion to bring the Lemon and John Gay before the bar of the House to answer certain questions about the passage of the bill concerning the pulp mill. It was not particularly edifying spectacle and the basic problem for the Bartlett government is how it can control or conceal anything that was dodgy. At the best of times, damage limitation poses considerable risk. As I have stated previously, it is my firm belief that people make up their minds about how they intend to vote some 18 months out before an election and yes, the clock is still ticking.
If the Bartlett government thinks certain issues will go away, they are gravely mistaken (and yes, that includes the railways, an area in which Sturgo has shown he is the next thing to useless). The issue of the pulp mill, not just the legislative aspect, appears to touch just about anyone you care to name. Everybody has a view and the government certainly is not popular on the handling of that particular matter among others. Personally, I would be concerned about the precedent of bringing people before the bar of the House on many issues, while my more acquisitive self would like the peanut and soft drink franchise, together with the right to set a fee for entrance. However, under the Westminster system Parliament is sovereign, it is not a court of law and any unlawful acts should be dealt with accordingly. Not often that I agree with the eponymous legal scribe but on this occasion, he has a point.
If there were any skeletons in the Premier’s cupboard, they surely would’ve been discovered by now. But he needs to take a look at his ministry and the structure of Parliament as a matter of priority. I do not intend to follow that path, which is well-trodden and one can only hope that those who advise the Premier know what they’re doing because their actions so far are not calculated to inspire confidence. At the present time, the electorate of Franklin has only two effective ALP members and one is the cheerful new boy in the form of sometime high school principal and cabbie, Ross Butler, who may face a struggle to be reindorsed in 2010 on the grounds of age and almost certainly because he is not fractionally aligned.
In many respects this would be disappointing as I have met many men of Mr. Butler’s age who show vigour, vitality and a willingness to accept new ideas, while others are brain dead at half his age. Unfortunately the machine is likely to chew him up and spit him out in the usual manner. I do not want to rake over the coals about Paula Wriedt and her future: it is another case that will be decided by the machine. In some respects, to lose Ms. Wriedt is to deprive the electorate of a fairly long serving minister, whose potential has yet to be fully realized. But politics is a hard game and play the man not the ball. I can think of quite a few opposition members literally salivating at the prospect of Paula returning to the government benches and it does them no credit whatsoever. No more credit in fact than that resulting from the expected actions of the ALP preselection committees: the prospect of endorsing two fractionally nonaligned candidates is unthinkable and therefore, highly unlikely. Great care needs to be exercised in selecting quality candidates and not just mates or pretty faces especially if there is no expansion in Parliament.
Any hope Mr. Bartlett might have had of luring voters away from the Greens is probably doomed to failure. Open support for the pulp mill will not gain but cost votes. Sue Neales’ report in the Mercury on 6 November, which is linked to the TT website, is well worth reading. To have the Prime Minister bailed up and put on the spot by a 10-year-old boy should certainly have sounded a warning to state politicians, assuming the usual suspects were in attendance. Community forums can be a wonderful tool for government in sounding out the general views of the population but it can turn in the hand. An examination of blogs and letters to the newspapers, while self-selecting and subject to editorial scrutiny, have consistently revealed the depth of opposition. The overall community feeling about the pulp mill, could be summed up in a recent posting from a friend of mine who’s fond of sending quotes and one was a gem. Admittedly the words of Oliver Cromwell were uttered under very different circumstances but they have a certain resonance: “I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken?” There is more one politician or government to whom that could be that could be directed and on a number of issues, unfortunately without them having the education to understand the timelessness of what was said.
A friend of mine told me to put up or shut up on the pulp mill, so I will. I am opposed to the pulp mill in the form being pushed by Gunn’s, the ALP and Liberals in the State Parliament. If we have a demonstrable economic need for a pulp mill lets us hear less of the rubbish written about
“World’s best practice,” which is a convenient phrase or managerial speak for disguising a multitude of sins. Any such mill should be located where damage to the environment can be minimized and the timber used should only come from plantations. As it is, there are wild exaggerations about the number of jobs in the timber industry in Tasmania. And we have a really big problem with antagonists on both sides who will not concede a single point. We desperately need a circuit breaker but that is totally out of the question. I find myself grinding my teeth whenever I hear Barry Chipman, front man for the Gunn’s front organization Timber Communities Australia rabbiting away about the threat to his members and while I have some time for conservationists, they do not enrich the arguments by hyperbole and occasional misrepresentation but on the other hand, what a wonderful choice of Don Burke to support the mill (how many goals is that worth?). However, I believe that no old-growth forests should be logged except on a selective basis for the use of craftsmen. At a time when forests around the world are being devastated by slash and burn agriculture and the greed of multinational corporations in promoting growing crops for biofuels, Tasmania should be an icon and rallying point for conservation. If any person with an ounce of sense can say hand on heart that there is no case for conservation, I suggest a reality check at the very least.
Certainly among the most pressing problems for the government is the future of the RHH. Deputy Premier Darling Giddy has made it abundantly clear, complete with glossy brochures, scale models and public consultations that we can have a new hospital anywhere we like, provided it’s in the railyards: demonstrably the most unsuitable location. The wavering and indecision that passes for consultation often leaves the Premier and his Deputy on a different page. I will not dignify the mayor of Glenorchy and her public meeting with any comment suffice to say that Glenorchy is about as appropriate a location as the DFO near the airport. One of the most specious lines of reasoning against development on the present site is that there no space for a helipad. The obvious question to ask is: “How many patients are ferried to hospital by helicopter in a year and whether the number justifies talk of a helipad, ahead of say staff parking spaces?” Helicopters usually land near the Cenotaph but I have seen many hospitals overseas with helipads on the roof and in cities that have far more high-rise buildings than Hobart.
What about the alternatives? It might be wildly unpopular and probably not feasible but perhaps the Hotel Grand Chancellor could be purchased by government together with the Treacle Tin that passes for a concert hall next to it and that whole block bulldozed to a clear site. Not a good idea? It’s certainly no worse than some I’ve heard and still has that vital ease of access that hospitals inevitably demand. The Grand Chancellor could surely relocate elsewhere and a new concert hall more in keeping with Hobart’s architecture could be built on a “greenfield” site. Then there would be good grounds to do something significant about Zero Davey Street, known to some of us as “ground zero.” It is an eyesore and with the Treacle Tin makes an extremely ugly gateway to the city. At least the ugly facade could be restored to match the heritage of the building and perhaps screened by a few trees. And I certainly don’t need aesthetic advice from architects and planners to know that it is little short of a disgrace.
Why not relocate the RHH on the Eastern Shore? Apart from the fact that it caters to the more harebrained of the members of Clarence City Council, the main argument is that the hospital needs to be central to Hobart and the Tasman Bridge is no cakewalk for ambulance drivers, let alone the majority of Hobartians who, live on the Western Shore. However, I still maintain that the medical needs of the state are best dealt with when the requisite number of qualified staff is met, both in numerical and financial terms. We still suffer from the Florence Nightingale hangover and should recognize that nurses deserve to be paid what they are worth and be able to match offers from competitors. And thanks to a visit to the state by Ms. Tanya Plibersek, the Federal Minister for Health we learned that the government has graciously consented to the training of five more medical students for the state.
One reason that we have a shortage of doctors and find ourselves either bemoaning that shortage or encouraging migrants who are suitably qualified is that under a previous Federal Liberal government, the then health minister, Dr. Michael Wooldridge, placed a cap on student numbers in the medicine faculties of our universities. I suppose one could say that liberal free-market strategy dictates that it takes an MD, who also happens to be a flatulent jackass, to take such steps with an aging population and a concomitant demand for healthcare. My faith in the Rudd government has taken a hammering on that issue, especially with the disgraceful case of refusing permanent residence to a qualified German doctor who has a son with a disability. It would appear that the heartlessness of the Howard government most evident in the Immigration Department remains intact, especially as the young Buddhist lad (poetically named Buddhaholy Siu, now aged 13) who is seeking permanent residence in Tasmania remains in a state of limbo. I have already sent a letter of support to Sid Sidebottom, the federal member for Braddon and was pleased to note that the Premier has backed up the plea (Sunday Tasmanian 2 November 2008). In semi-despair, I can only ask what possible harm or extra cost would be incurred by allowing both to stay. Surely a cost/benefit analysis would show that the presence of the doctor gives more to the State than it takes away. And as far as I know, Buddhists in Tasmania are model citizens – no bomb makers there!
Could the government not round up foreigners overstaying on limited working visas or undesirable elements, who have managed to get permanent residence only to become criminals or worse and revoke their Australian visas? The federal government appears to lack the courage to tackle these matters and in both cases mentioned above, a little humanitarianism would go a long way especially at this time of year, especially for those of us with a religious persuasion who believe in charity and goodness of heart. Instead, the Rudd Government appears to listen more attentively to the captains of industry who see the need for importing migrants with skills apparently absent among the Australian unemployed and then pay them less than what was once called the award rate. Brutopia lives!
With a sigh, it’s back to the local scene and although I personally don’t like the man, I must admit that the Treasurer Michael Aird has done a good job. I shudder to think what this state we would have been like in economic terms, had the former Liberal administration been returned to power. No doubt they would’ve bulldozed the pulp mill through but at what cost and to what end? For what it’s worth, the north of the state benefited when the federal Liberals held two seats. Jodi Campbell and Sid Sidebottom appear to be working hard on local issues and that is the way that federal members retain their seats in Tasmania – they must heed the words of the locals – on the big island to the North, politicians just don’t work their electorates, although that might be a slight overgeneralisation.
In many respects, it is pointless to try to predict what will happen between now and the next state election. I have previously listed what I consider to be the main issues facing this government that need to be dealt with and they do not bear repetition. However, keeping an eye on the federal scene has been instructive for local reasons. The Mercury’s big brother, The Australian, last week analysed the prospects of state Labor governments who will soon face the electors. Needless to say, or should I say as usual, Tasmania was not included in the analysis. When John Howard was in power in Canberra, ALP governments were static fixtures across the country. Now that we have Kevin Rudd in the hot seat, the balance of power will inexorably change, to a greater or lesser extent.
Under normal circumstances, pundits would not make too much of the outcome of the election in the Australian Capital Territory – it’s only Canberra, yeah right. And with a population according to the most recent estimates released by the ABS, the population of the ACT was 326,700 as at 31 December 2005 as opposed to Tasmania’s 485,300 but at that time; the growth rate of the ACT was considerably higher than Tasmania’s (2.8% to 0.7%). Personally I don’t like working with ABS figures but they are the official census figures. As they say statistics don’t lie but liars can figure and I can do it with the best of them so I tend not to take too much notice of projections.
To those who bay at the moon and have been doing so since the Coalition lost power, writers at The Australian gleefully pointed to the ousting of the ALP governments in Western Australia and a big swing against the ALP in the ACT, which continues to hold power in minority, while the Green Party managed to obtain four seats. This result prompted prophecies by Bob Brown and others about the emergence of a new third force, presumably replacing the somewhat unlamented Australian Democrats – we’ll see.
More importantly, the Oz pundits euphorically led with the headline: “Labor state dominoes set to fall.” Certainly on the opinion poll figures, the ALP is in real trouble in New South Wales, which given its recent history is hardly surprising; and the position is finely balanced in Queensland, Victoria and South Australia. Discounting psephologists such as Malcolm Mackerras, who has forfeited a great deal of credibility in recent years, it would be surprising to find any reputable political scientist who would not look at the two-party preferred vote given in those opinion polls and draw the same conclusion. Yes folks, despite Kevin Rudd’s popularity, ALP state governments are well and truly on the nose. The statistical difference between the parties falls within the usual margin of error and depending on what happens at the national level and the actions of state governments, then the political complexion of the country could well change dramatically.
Neither the federal or state governments will remain untouched or unscathed by the current international economic crisis. Even Mr. Smug on ABC-TV cannot predict whether we have hit rock bottom. There was some bounce on international markets following the election of Barack Obama but in Australian terms, it had the characteristics of a dead cat. Federal Labor inherited what was a basically sound economy, although arguably the interest rates were held too high for too long in the run-up to the 2007 election. State Treasurers can only operate within the constraints of the federal system. Provided the Bartlett government can clean up its own backyard, the reassuring works of Michael Aird and Treasury Head Don Challen point to steady and capable hands on the direction of the economy. A rise in unemployment can be expected but the state is in a fairly good situation at present. A very strong case could be made in the event of economic conditions declining further, that it is better to have an experienced government in power than change horses in midstream. It is rather unfortunate in many respects that Will Hodgman, young and likable does not have much talent at his disposal and will probably face a challenge from the knife grinders in the background. If there is one certainty for the Liberals, it is that Vanessa Goodwin (provided she stands) will pick up a seat for them in Franklin at the 2010 election.
There is no telling which way the cat will jump in terms of the electoral reform. I still maintain that we should return to five electorates with seven members and not the slippery 7 x 5 proposed by a genius whose name I know but won’t mention. Suffice to say he’s part of the coterie that thought the Greens could be eliminated by cutting the size of Parliament. To that mob I say, dream on, because like it or lump it, the Greens are here to stay, although one cannot necessarily expect a greater increase in their numbers with a larger Parliament. Calling an election result this far out may be akin to a boxer leading with his chin and inviting it to be hit. But assuming the government can solve some of its problems; including what to do with two discredited former Deputy Premiers (whom I expect to be returned) there is a very good chance that the Labor Party will emerge with the largest number of seats in the Lower House. On a more sober note, there are too many variables which could change the picture but I don’t think the prospects of majority government for the ALP are very bright. Much now depends on the integrity of the Premier and the way in which he deals with all the problems, including the legacy of dead weight in the ministry.
