The political death of Paul Lennon

Cassandra

So young Mr. Bartlett, a man of little parliamentary experience now inherits what must be seen as a poisoned chalice. He is there because the Left opposed Lennon’s first choice of Deputy, Paula Wriedt. Now he has the job and a Deputy Premier not necessarily of his own choosing. He faces a difficult task in turning around the fortunes of the Labor Party in the state and we do not know how much influence the Left will have on his policies.
IT WAS inevitable that Paul Lennon had to go. To wake up (today) on the morning of 26 May and hear news of his resignation on ABC radio came as no great shock. He was stuck between a rock and a hard place. According to right-wing power broker, Michael Polley, he and Treasurer Michael Aird were summoned to meet the Premier at 5:45 p.m. on the previous night and told that he would be resigning in the interests of the party and for reasons of generational change.

The “dream team” of David Bartlett and Lara Giddings are expected to be elected unopposed at the caucus meeting held this morning. Thus with one fell swoop, the Left faction of the ALP will be rubbing its hands in delight as it will be perceived as being in the ascendancy for first time in many years.

Furthermore, it would appear that Lennon came to the decision on his own and that no coup d’état was necessary. Mr. Lennon will also leave State Parliament, which is the correct decision. With his popularity rating at 17% in last week’s EMRS opinion poll, there was no prospect of reinventing himself again; re-badging or re-modelling in a last-ditch gamble to cling to power; let alone win the next election. It also appears likely that he was seen as dismantling the legacy of Jim Bacon, something seemed as intolerable in the ranks of the Labor Party, at least in the south of the state.

Like Robin Gray before him, Mr. Lennon was far too closely associated with, and seen as an advocate for the Gunns’ pulp mill. Given that the ANZ Bank was reportedly ready to pull out for financing the deal, Lennon and his close associate John Gay would be left in the untenable position of trying to talk up the pulp mill in the face of increased public opposition which they steadfastly refused to recognize. Whether the former Premier follows Mr. Gray onto the board of Gunn’s remains to be seen but popular rumour has it that a seat was being kept warm for him when he left politics.

The Premier had returned home from a trip to New Zealand on Friday stopping in Melbourne to see his hitherto unbeaten football team Geelong thrashed by Hawthorn. To the superstitious, this could have been a dark omen. But whatever went on in the mind of the Premier, it is seen as likely that he made the decision and then summoned his shield bearers and speer carriers on Sunday night. It would appear that one of the trio leaked the story to The Examiner, which scooped the State and left the Mercury adrift. This would have been a calculated act: the Labour leadership has no love for the Mercury’s chief political reporter Sue Neales.

However, before the meeting of Sunday night, Mr. Lennon had announced that he had instructed the Attorney-General to examine the feasibility of establishing an Ethics Committee. This was a retreat from his often-stated position that an Independent Commission against Corruption (ICAC) was unnecessary as there was no corruption in the State. However, as Matthew Denholm and Imre Salusinsky pointed out in the Weekend Australian (24-25 May) in an article entitled, “A watchdog for every house,” ( Read here )there appears to be a Federal government push to institute ethics committees or an ICAC by another name for every State. Not unsurprisingly, Federal Labor has listened to the distinguished Tasmanian jurist and former Liberal Deputy Premier Sir Max Bingham, who himself has been consulting with academic lawyers at the University of Tasmania.

There have been rumblings for some months about the need for a nationwide system and Sir Max Bingham is quoted as agreeing with New South Wales Premier Morris Iemma who recently declared “…any jurisdiction (that) doesn’t have an ICAC type body is in my view, just crazy. If you don’t have one you have either discovered a secret to human nature that has eluded the rest of us, or as is more likely to be the case, you are just kidding yourself.” Coming from the man in charge of the state perhaps most vilified in terms of corruption, this is indeed a revelation.

Throughout the weekend, the word was about that there would be no challenge to Lennon from the unwanted, second choice Deputy Premier, David Bartlett. Whether having Bartlett foisted upon him by caucus played any part in his final decision is not known but Paul Lennon was not a happy man when Steve Kons was replaced.

Lennon and Labor have only themselves to blame for this situation. Reducing the size of the Tasmanian lower house of parliament from 35 to 25 was a masterstroke to eliminate the Greens and undoubtedly had Liberal support. With the benefit of hindsight, surely better than 20/20, this must be seen as the biggest mistake ever made. The talent pool is so shallow that on a warm day it evaporates. It is hard to see an effective ministry being drawn from a dry well.

So young Mr. Bartlett, a man of little parliamentary experience now inherits what must be seen as a poisoned chalice. He is there because the Left opposed Lennon’s first choice of Deputy, Paula Wriedt. Now he has the job and a Deputy Premier not necessarily of his own choosing. He faces a difficult task in turning around the fortunes of the Labor Party in the state and we do not know how much influence the Left will have on his policies.

While Federal Labor is extremely popular, the last two years have seen a majority government on the nose with the majority of the people. The stench hanging over Hobart in recent times was not just forestry burn-offs. It was strongly reminiscent of the pungent pong that surrounded the last 18 months of the Keating government in 1991-2 and that which hung over John Howard from halfway through 2007. It is the unmistakable odour of political death.

Tasmania is now to be visited by what is variously described as a Chinese proverb or curse: “May you live in interesting times.” It remains to be seen how much influence the factions have on the new government but it a discordant note was struck in the whole affair that Bartlett’s mentor is none other than one of the weakest and worst Premiers this state has ever had in the form of Michael (Mickey Mouse) Field, surely a tragic comedy.

Had Lennon not fallen on his sword, Field’s advice was to wait and not challenge. My advice would have been as Shakespeare said: “If it were done when, ‘tis done, then t’were well it were done quickly.”

This is all now academic. We will live in interesting times and early talkback radio suggested a ring-in by people who hate “greenies,” blaming the pulp mill debacle for the Premier’s demise. It also suggests that the parochialism that threatens to rip this state apart is once again alive and dangerously unhealthy. Such imbecilic views blaming the Greens for everything that goes wrong in the eyes of certain people in this state does no one any credit. Peg Putt has proved to be an effective leader with a strong following in the South, being more popular than the Premier and Nick McKim has certainly made the running on the ICAC issue.

Now, with a leader and deputy both from the South, all the old fissures will open up again, especially if the pulp mill is consigned to history. Tasmanians are widely regarded as the friendliest of Australians but this image will be sorely tested in the run-up to the next election. Visitors will probably still be welcome but relationships between people across the state will be reminiscent of hillbilly feuds such as the not so mythical Hatfields and McCoys in the US.

Other intriguing questions which will be answered in the near future concern Lennon’s replacement, widely believed to be Ross Butler, if he wants the job or Daniel Hulme if he doesn’t. If he does, it will probably be for two years because the apprentice two, will immeasurably strengthen the hand of Paula Wriedt in being re-elected. Secondly will the much-mooted retirement of Jim Cox now take place before the election which would probably bring in Steve Reissig as a replacement. Yes, interesting times, very interesting times.