phill Parsons

And for Egypt, the Nile delta, its food bowl, will shrink further as costal erosion and sea level rise erode the area of productive land. A rise of 1m, a little over the predicted maximum but not outside the realm of possibility given the increasing rate of ice sheet melt, would reduce the productive area of the delta by 25% and displace 10M people from their current homes.

GLUTTONS will be pleased to note that additional atmospheric CO2 will impact on plants ability to convert nutrients into proteins, requiring all grain consumers to eat more for the same benefit.

This will be a double conundrum for China. It expects the area of productive agricultural land to fall against an increase in population to 1.5B by 2030. Less land will have to produce more food in a destabilizing climate that is likely to produce conditions hostile to stable and predictable agricultural production.

And for Egypt, the Nile delta, its food bowl, will shrink further as costal erosion and sea level rise erode the area of productive land. A rise of 1m, a little over the predicted maximum but not outside the realm of possibility given the increasing rate of ice sheet melt, would reduce the productive area of the delta by 25% and displace 10M people from their current homes.

Rapley, retiring head of the British Antarctic Survey believes an average rise is more likely than the 40cm predicted in the IPCC’s 4th Assessment. He bases this on measured ice sheet behaviour in Greenland and the Antarctic.

And for the Gulf of Mexico, predictions are for up to another 30 years of storm seasons with 3 or 4 major hurricanes [Category 3 or greater] each year.

This is fresh from NASA, who wonder why the Bush Administration has downgraded funding for satellites viewing changes on earth whilst upgrading the funding for a manned flight to Mars and the earth orbiting space station. Is there a message here.

Of course there could be some financial savings, with $180B in fuel costs to be saved annually with a global shift to renewable energy, some $30B below the UN forecast of the annual cost to change to renewable energy, both predictions are for costs in 2030.

These costs exclude those associated with adaptation to change such as ensuring a water supply.

Writing of which, it may interest those watching the floods devastating China, Bangladesh, India, the UK and the US that the heavy rains in Queensland have so far added 2% to water storages, all the way up from 15%. Hydro storage in Tasmania is up 7% since the 6th to 28.3%.

And for costs, the recent flooding in the UK costs are estimated to be EP2B in damage. The adaptation costs of improving flood defences is not yet known.

And for those who remember the smog blanketing Malaysia from forest fires in Indonesia spare a thought for Moscow where peatland fires are giving an added piquant [archaic meaning] to Moscow’s air and China’s photochemical smog is giving a similar atmosphere to 28 prefectures in the land of the rising sun.

Meanwhile down under the Aussie of the Year is demanding PM Howard put a price on carbon emissions even if he will not introduce trading for another 5 years. Tim recommends between $40 and $70 a ton to end the tide of climate destabilization.

And for those who have followed my scribbling’s on addressing climate change take note;

SOLAR WATER HEATERS WILL BECOME A REQUIRMENT AFTER 2012, IF LABOR IS ELECTED TO GOVERNMENT. Change over early and avoid the rush.

How to outdo changing lightglobes.

Heating water accounts for about 28 per cent of household energy consumption. Cost of changeover to householder under the scheme is some $900 up front to save some $4000 in heating water over a 20 year life of a system using an electrically boosted solar with 2 users in Tasmania.

Now if the Minister was listening with his good ear Tasmaian could already be moving in this direction and making money on the water not consumed to heat water or the coal fired power not imported to do the same. Instead, no doubt, it will wait for Canberra.

Please, somebody remind me what the states for.

I hope Labor is not silly enough to exempt Tasmania in the mistaken belief it is ‘green’ powered. But I can imagine all sorts of special pleadings.

phill Parsons reporting on the destabilization of the climate in the knowledge that it will take a disaster of large proportions to bring government to focus and action decarbonize the economy.

Note for readers. It is the end of August and insufficient rains have fallen in the Murray Darling Basin. There is a 0 [ZERO] allocation for irrigation this year with a similar return to the farmers so affected.

Significant out of season rains may reverse this but they on past patterns unlikely. Who knows what a destabilized climate will bring.