Bob McMahon
A 10 point lead in any poll translates as a healthy majority, and in political terms is often referred to as a ‘landslide’. At last we have a clear and unequivocal set of numbers to give the lie to the ‘estimates’ of 80% — 95% support for the mill which the Gunns and State government apparatus repeatedly allude to. Also given the lie is the Prime Minister’s statement in Scottsdale last week that opponents of the mill are a ‘noisy minority’. One half of that statement only is correct.
Mercury: Poll pulps popularity claim
Examiner: No poll report posted …
TAP (Tasmanians Against the Pulpmill) commissioned TasPoll to conduct a survey of 1000 people in the 63 telephone district. This is essentially the Pulp Mill direct impact zone and covered, for the purposes of the poll, the municipalities of Launceston, Northern Midlands, Meander , West Tamar, Dorset and Georgetown. The poll was conducted between April 24 and April 27, 2007.
One question was asked: Are you in favour of the current proposal to build a Pulp Mill in the Tamar Valley?
YES 362 (36.2%)
NO 457 (45.7%)
DON’T KNOW 181 (18.1%)
That 18.1% were either undecided, or, (and this is significant), “were unwilling to express an opinion” said Professor Richard Herr in his commentary, seems to me to be an unusually high number.
Asked by several journalists why I thought this might be so, I made an educated guess based on anecdotal evidence: there seems to be a fear factor at play here that may account for the unwillingness of people to reveal their opinion of the Pulp Mill, or of Gunns in general.
Richard Herr stated: “Opponents may be disappointed that they did not secure an outright majority against the mill but, if the undecided were either excluded or distributed in the usual manner for polls, they would claim more than 55% of respondents against the mill”.
A 10 point lead in any poll translates as a healthy majority, and in political terms is often referred to as a ‘landslide’. At last we have a clear and unequivocal set of numbers to give the lie to the ‘estimates’ of 80% — 95% support for the mill which the Gunns and State government apparatus repeatedly allude to. Also given the lie is the Prime Minister’s statement in Scottsdale last week that opponents of the mill are a ‘noisy minority’. One half of that statement only is correct.
The Prime Minister is very much in favour of the Pulp Mill and he also, one presumes, would like to retain the Federal seat of Bass, held by Michael Ferguson, in the upcoming Federal election. These poll results would seem to indicate that he cannot do both, especially if TAP were successful in fashioning the poll numbers into an instrument of political change.
There is a real chance that the Prime Minister has been inadequately briefed both on the likely impacts of the mill and the best campaign strategy to follow in Bass. Attempting to repeat the success of the past by allying himself with the CFMEU, as he attempted to do in Scottsdale, may well backfire.
Bob McMahon
TAP
Vica Bayley Wilderness Society
Media Release 8th May 2007
PULP MILL SUPPORT PLUMMETS FROM 60% to 36%
The Taspoll survey released yesterday has confirmed that the majority of people in northern Tasmania are opposed to Gunns’ proposed pulp mill. The result of this poll, when compared to the 2006 poll commissioned by FIAT, indicates that support for the pulp mill is in terminal decline.
“The Forest Industries Association of Tasmania (FIAT) released a poll last year which claimed that 60% of Tasmanians would support the pulp mill if it met RPDC environmental standards,” said Vica Bayley, spokesperson for The Wilderness Society. “The tables have now turned and the latest poll result reveals that a majority of people—55% in northern Tasmania—are opposed to the project,”
FIAT released the earlier poll result on 25th September 2006, the same day that public submissions to the RPDC closed.
“Since the RPDC was ditched by Gunns, support for the mill has plummeted. Due process has been sidelined, public hearings have been abandoned and confidence in an independent and adequate assessment of the pulp mill has vanished,” said Mr Bayley.
Both the Tasmanian fast-track assessment and the Federal Government assessment fail to adequately assess impacts of the mill. Neither assessment will look into the impact on Tasmania’s forests or the impact on water catchments and future water supply and neither process will investigate potential costs to other industries.
“The public confidence in the assessment of the pulp mill has been butchered by Gunns’ withdrawal from the RPDC process and the subsequent fast-track legislation.”
“According to the forestry industry, support for the pulp mill was once 60%. Now it is down to 36% and we can expect to see it fall further,” said Mr Bayley.
“People are concerned by many issues associated with this pulp mill. These include the stinking odours the mill will release, the projected air pollution, the effect on Bass Strait and its fishing industries, and the undeniable impact on Tasmania’s forests for decades to come,” he concluded.
