By their fruits shall ye know them

Mike Bolan

“The main input for the economic modelling was the financial model supplied by Gunns … on a strict commercial-in-confidence basis” Presumably meaning that there has been no independent validation of the figures. On the forecast rise in property prices due to the mill he says “The consultants have no expertise in property valuation, and therefore the assessment of the impact on housing prices was limited to existing research that had been undertaken by GHD and Gunns.”

THE supplementary information designed to respond to the thousands of pages of public submissions, contains interesting information, presumably provided to increase our confidence in the entire process.

The original economic model that Paul Lennon quotes from now was prepared by Jonathan Stanford, a consultant engaged by Gunns Ltd.

In his sworn witness statement for supplementary information to the RPDC Mr Stanford writes:

“The main input for the economic modelling was the financial model supplied by Gunns … on a strict commercial-in-confidence basis”

Presumably meaning that there has been no independent validation of the figures.

On the forecast rise in property prices due to the mill he says “The consultants have no expertise in property valuation, and therefore the assessment of the impact on housing prices was limited to existing research that had been undertaken by GHD and Gunns.”

In response to many submissions about the negative impacts on tourism Mr Stanford says: … “The modelling assumed a zero impact on the tourism industry … It is difficult to see why adding one more industrial project to the many others in this (Bell Bay) precinct would discourage tourism in Tasmania.”

On public concerns about environmental costs (e.g. water impacts)

“We did not model the economic impact of any significant adverse environmental impacts because we were not advised that there would be any such impacts.”

On concerns about project risks

“I have never included an analysis of project risks when evaluating and reporting the economic outcomes.”

This is how our governments and the various ‘informed’ sources have reached their conclusions.

Read for yourself: Economic_impacts.pdf