Jon Sumby
Tasmania is an island. Nearly everything we use is imported — petrol, bread, cars. We rely on imports for consumer goods and wealth from tourism. A great deal of what Tasmania does is exported — woodchips, minerals, meat. In a post-peak world what will this mean for the cost of living? Global warming will cause large changes to the environment and the economy. Peak oil will cause even more change to the social fabric of the world.
When cruise ships no longer visit; when cargo ships no longer travel; when aircraft no longer fly; when there are no trucks or cars on the road; when there is no Internet, what will be the shape of Tasmanian society?
AN ancient Chinese curse goes something like this: ‘May you live in interesting times’. We are now living, more than ever, in interesting times.
We can happily charge around shooting each other in different parts of the World as we argue over who lives where, who owns what, and which God is the best. We can happily trundle around cutting things down, digging things up, fishing everything, killing and eating anything that moves, and dumping waste and pollution behind us. All of these busy human activities exist within a bubble of environmental and physical stability. We are enjoying a picnic and it is not raining … yet.
There are, to my mind, at least five major changes that transcend society and economy and will prick the bubble we live in. They will rain on our picnic.
The first is ocean acidification, which will alter the ocean greatly and irrevocably over the next century. The second is the conclusion reached after of some careful research by the marine ecologist, Dr Boris Worm: Current levels of fisheries activity are likely to create an empty ocean by around 2048. The third is climate change which, given political inertia and vested interests, is unlikely to be minimised and will cause global environmental and social change. The fourth is freshwater scarcity, which will affect millions of people around the world.
The last is peak oil, which I assume most people know about. In a nutshell, oil is a finite resource; it will run out. Peak oil is the point when global oil production reaches a maximum, after that oil production declines and will eventually run out.
Is peak oil important?
I don’t think the ‘peak’ in peak oil is that important. It seems to have a greater psychological symbolism than any practical value. Independent research groups like the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) put peak oil at around now. The US government organisation, the US Geological Service, places peak oil at around 2018, while oil industry research puts it around 2040. What is far more relevant is the ‘tail’. This is the decline in production. Eventually, oil production will drop to the levels of the turn of the century, back before World War I. When and how rapidly this will occur is the major issue.
I mention World War I as this was the time when the great powers shifted their naval fleets from coal to oil and the age of oil-fired ocean transport began. More than 95% of global trade is carried by oil-powered ships: Car carriers bringing Daewoos to Australia and iron ore going to Korea; woodchips going to Japan and paper arriving from Japan.
Have a look at the above graph. At this point, I would like to assure sceptics that peak oil is real. Everyone from ExxonMobil, to the ASPO, to OPEC, accept the reality of peak oil and have produced their model curves. The beauty of this graph, one of the best I have found, is that it puts them all together so you can compare (goto: Trendlines for more info). This graph has X-Y zero at the year 1950, which is the beginning of the American post-war boom and a time that was the hey-day (the ‘Fonz’ era) for members of the ruling cliques like George Bush and John Howard.
The national oil company of Saudi Arabia, ARAMCO, puts the decline to 1950s production at about 2125. OPEC puts the level of 1950s production at around 2060. ExxonMobil has their level about 2110, while BP have their estimate at about 2065. The ASPO has the ‘50s level reached at about 2080.
The average of all the models shown in the graph is a peak in 2020 and a reduction to the production levels of the 1950s about 2120. At the moment, we are extracting about five times as much oil each year as we discover. As peak oil is reached and passed the question is: What will happen? This is the realm of futurecasting, which can be uncannily accurate and imprecise at the same time.
This much is certain
Peak oil will happen. Oil production will decline in the next century to the volume that was being produced in the 1950s, and then to pre-World War I amounts shortly afterwards. However, global demand for oil is rising at about 2 per cent per year, with China’s demand growing by about 5-7% annually and India’s by about 4-7%.
It is logical to assume that a collision between the growth economy and a finite resource will happen. Resource scarcity will be the main issue. Oil will become, literally, ‘liquid gold’.
We are Oil
Our society is based on oil. We use it for transport, manufacturing, and consumption. Plastics come from oil. Fertilisers come from oil. Car and truck tires come from oil. We depend on oil for energy. The food we eat depends on oil for production and transport. Airplanes and communication depend on oil. The shoes we wear and our clothes mainly come from oil. Playstations, computers, the Internet all rely on oil. Wherever you look, the major link for everything we use and eat is the need and use of oil.
Tasmania
Tasmania is an island. Nearly everything we use is imported — petrol, bread, cars. We rely on imports for consumer goods and wealth from tourism. A great deal of what Tasmania does is exported — woodchips, minerals, meat. In a post-peak world what will this mean for the cost of living? Global warming will cause large changes to the environment and the economy. Peak oil will cause even more change to the social fabric of the world.
When cruise ships no longer visit; when cargo ships no longer travel; when aircraft no longer fly; when there are no trucks or cars on the road; when there is no Internet, what will be the shape of Tasmanian society?
You, or your children, will experience this change. Your kids, or your grandkids, will live in a world without oil. What can you do now to help plan for the best future for your children, your family, your community, the World?
More information:
http://www.relocalize.net/
http://www.resalliance.org/1.php
http://www.australia21.org.au/
‘The earth is finite. Fossil fuels are not renewable. In this respect our energy base differs from that of all earlier civilizations. They could have maintained their energy supply by careful cultivation. We cannot. Fuel that has been burned is gone forever. Fuel is even more evanescent than metals. Metals, too, are non-renewable resources threatened with ultimate extinction, but something can be salvaged from scrap. Fuel leaves no scrap and there is nothing man can do to rebuild exhausted fossil fuel reserves. They were created by solar energy 500 million years ago and took eons to grow to their present volume.
In the face of the basic fact that fossil fuel reserves are finite, the exact length of time these reserves will last is important in only one respect: the longer they last, the more time do we have, to invent ways of living off renewable or substitute energy sources and to adjust our economy to the vast changes which we can expect from such a shift…
Looking into the future, from the mid-20th Century, we cannot feel overly confident that present high standards of living will of a certainty continue through the next century and beyond. Fossil fuel costs will soon definitely begin to rise as the best and most accessible reserves are exhausted, and more effort will be required to obtain the same energy from remaining reserves. It is likely also that liquid fuel synthesized from coal will be more expensive. Can we feel certain that when economically recoverable fossil fuels are gone science will have learned how to maintain a high standard of living on renewable energy sources?
I believe it would be wise to assume that the principal renewable fuel sources which we can expect to tap before fossil reserves run out will supply only 7 to 15% of future energy needs. The five most important of these renewable sources are wood fuel, farm wastes, wind, water power, and solar heat.’ – From a speech given by Rear Admiral Hyman G. Rickover, USN, May, 1957. (Admiral Rickover was at the time in charge of the Naval Reactors Branch, U.S. Atomic Energy Commission and Assistant Chief of the Bureau of Ships for Nuclear Propulsion, Navy Department. Admiral Rickover was considered the ‘Father of the Nuclear Submarine’. As an employee of the US Atomic Energy Commission, later Department of Energy, he had great influence on the development of America’s civilian Nuclear Power Generation Industry.)
