THE Labor majority result comes as no real surprise.
My contributions (Here) over the past six months have tried to explain what the polls were really telling us: that Labor may have its problems, but there was no evidence that voters were embracing the alternative. Kevin Bonham (Here) was often the only other voice talking sense in the wilderness. Even when some were calling a hung parliament close to a certainty, there was scarcely an opinion poll, within the statistical margin of error, that did not give Labor at least a realistic chance of majority. Online bookmaker Centrebet was apparently seduced by the press coverage because they put up a suicidal eight to one about Labor winning 13 seats or more, only to see punters force the price into even money by election day. Is this the biggest odds move ever for an election? Probably.
What I got right
By the week before the campaign I thought the election outcome really was 50/50. On Tim Cox’s ABC morning program last Tuesday I was pressed for a prediction, and proffered 13/8/4. The actual result looks like being 14/8/3, so I am happy enough with that. I was pleased (and relieved, after opening my big mouth!) to see Australian’s Newspoll or the Mercury’s Taspoll on election eve closely mirror my prediction.
I am also satisfied that two other calls I made appear to have come to pass. One was that recent elections in Australia show that the incumbent generally improve its position during the campaign. This election helps confirm that generalisation. The second was that the Liberals’ “majority or nothing” stance added nothing to their prospects and in fact worked to push voters to Labor.
What I got wrong
The poor showing of the Greens came as a real surprise. I was always sceptical of them winning in Braddon or a second seat in Denison but I was convinced that the pulp mill issue made Kim Booth a certainty in Bass. I will now have to re-think how big environmental issues effect the Green vote.
Where to from here
All three parties are on notice from the electorate. Labor managed 50 per cent of the primary vote, but voters will expect health services to be vastly improved and for the crises and controversies that dominated the past two years to subside. Labor will be attempting to win a fourth term at the next election. Since 1970 in Australia only 30 per cent of governments seeking a fourth term have been successful, such is the “cost of government”.
The Liberals should be extremely disappointed. To only gain four per cent from such a low base is inexcusable. Why they chose to fight the election on the key issue “owned” by Labor — majority government — remains a mystery to me. One positive is that the four “young gun” sitting members elected first in 2002 all increased their personal vote. The table below ranks all the candidates according to their primary vote (86% counted) and reveals how well Will Hodgman, Rockliff and Gutwein did compared to both their senior Liberal colleagues and several high-profile Labor members too.
But this is small compensation. The Liberals need a drastic reappraisal of their electoral “persona”; until they look, act and talk like they want government — and will govern — then permanent opposition is assured.
For such skilled and effective parliamentarians the Greens make terrible election campaigners. Talk of deputy premierships and blocking of supply cost them dearly in the campaign. Because Green support hovers at just above or just below a quota even the slightest drop in support can mean disaster. For voters perception is fact, so the Greens need to defeat the belief that that they are no more than the political arm of conservation groups. Until they can do that, they will continue to struggle. And they can’t even expect a major environment issue to help them out anymore.
Finally
I can not help feeling that since Jim Bacon’s departure in mid 2003, politics has marked time in Tasmania waiting for this election. Perhaps against what some people may believe, I think we are entering into a really exciting time in Tasmanian politics. Paul Lennon now has a mandate to lead in his own right. Is he the buffoon some like to pigeon hole him as, or can he consolidate and take Labor and Tasmania into a new golden age? The Liberals, surely, must now move away from their “Labor Lite” guise and make a mark of their own by capitalising on the popularity of their young members. And, if the Greens slide backwards in this term, will that be the end of their significance in Tasmanian politics?
Plenty in that for political wonks and poll watchers.
