Tassie media off the mark

CONTRARY to mainstream media predictions, it is highly likely that the Tasmanian Greens will retain their four seats in the House of Assembly after the March 18 state election which returned a Labor Government, and thereby party status.

Kim Booth, Greens member for Bass, has been written off by journalists but is likely to hold onto his seat, staving off a challenge by Labor newcomer Steve Reissig.

The Mercury’s front page today has Steve Reissig wresting the seat from Kim Booth, The Examiner predicted his parliamentary career was over, although he hadn’t ruled himself out, while this morning ABC Local Radio mornings presenter Tim Cox said he was history.

Under Tasmania’s Hare-Clark voting system, a candidate can win or lose by a whisker, so calling the outcome for the fifth seats in the five-member electorates can be tricky. There’s been much confident comment on ABC Local Radio and in the three Tasmanian newspapers, even today, that Tamar Valley anti-pulp mill campaigner Les Rochester cost Booth his seat.

But Tasmanian Times psephologist Kevin Bonham said yesterday the Bass seat “was right on the line.” By the end of counting yesterday he predicted Booth would keep his seat “by about 400 votes.”

Tasmanian Electoral Commissioner Bruce Taylor thinks the conventional media got it wrong, telling Crikey this morning that he thinks that Booth will be re-elected by a slim margin. What’s more, he thinks Booth will get back into Parliament on Liberal preferences.

Taylor says the outcome in Bass is likely to be known by the end of counting today, as will Franklin, where Education Minister Paula Wriedt has been locked in a battle over the fifth seat with Liberal newcomer Vanessa Goodwin.

Taylor says he thinks Wriedt is safe and the result is likely to be known today. Braddon and Denison are sewn up, but there is still some doubt over the fifth seat in Lyons. Taylor says the Greens’ Tim Morris should be returned, but counting will continue tomorrow.