An exclusive poll by The Mercury has exposed a 10 per cent drop in support for the Lennon Labor Government since the last election and the death in June 2004 of former premier Jim Bacon.
Labor would lose two seats while the Greens are likely to pick up two and threaten the Liberals’ standing as the main opposition party.
While the Liberals’ vote has improved, they would be struggling to win more than their current seven seats.
None of the three major political parties is likely to win a majority share of Tasmania’s 332,000 votes at the election tipped for late March.
The Mercury voter intention survey also reveals that the Liberal Party under the leadership of Rene Hidding is still in trouble.
It has failed to capitalise on widespread community dissatisfaction with the Labor Government and Premier Paul Lennon over issues such as hospitals, health, public housing and education.
Statewide support for the Liberals is only 4 per cent higher than at its catastrophic 2002 election defeat.
But 20 per cent of Tasmanians now plans to vote for the Tasmanian Greens, with their popularity rising to 30 per cent among city voters in the key Hobart-based Denison electorate.
Greens support has also risen in all electorates except Lyons, with the Greens having a real chance of winning six seats in State Parliament, two more than now, and an almost-equal status to the Liberal Opposition.
The Mercury voter survey, conducted by the new TasPoll group, indicates the overall election result will show 42 per cent support for Labor, 31 per cent for the Liberals and 20 per cent for the Tasmanian Greens.
Based on separate voting intention figures across the five individual electorates, using the Tasmanian Hare-Clark electoral system, Labor looks likely to win 12 seats, the Liberals seven and the Greens six of the 25 House of Assembly seats up for grabs.
These latest figures reinforce the findings of a separate November survey by local pollster EMRS which also detected a 10 per cent plummet in support for Labor under Premier Lennon in just three months.
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HERE
What Rene reckons:
Media Release
RENE HIDDING, MHA
Leader of the State OppositionSaturday December 31, 2005
Mercury PollLeader of the State Opposition, Rene Hidding, today said the only poll that mattered for the State Liberal team was the next State Election.
“Tasmanians are becoming increasingly aware of the arrogant and secretive approach of Premier Lennon and his Labor Government which has its priorities all wrong,” Mr Hidding said.
“In contrast, the State Liberal team have a vision and plan for Securing Tasmania’s Future and we will get the priorities right for all Tasmanians.
“The State Liberal team will secure our economy, improve education standards, manage health better, safeguard our community and protect our lifestyle.
“The poll however does reinforce the genuine risk of another disastrous Labor-Green Accord, as only the State Liberal Team have all signed a pledge NOT to govern with the Greens or anyone else.
“Tasmanians should be demanding that Premier Lennon and all Labor Candidates also sign a pledge to rule out another disastrous Labor-Green Government or is it true that some Labor Candidates refuse to sign such a pledge?”
What Peg reckons:
Peg Putt MHA
Tasmanian Greens Opposition Leader
Saturday, 31 DECEMBER 2005CAUTIOUS WELCOME FOR YET ANOTHER POLL SHOWING GROWING GREEN VOTE
Warn of ‘fear and smear’ campaign from rivalsThe Tasmanian Greens today cautiously welcomed yet another opinion poll showing rising Greens support, saying that while there was still much hard work to be done in the electorate their aim to return six Greens at the upcoming state election is on track.
Greens Opposition Leader Peg Putt MHA said the TasPoll prediction of six Greens published in today’s Mercury newspaper reflected a positive feeling amongst voters about the Greens vision, competence and tenacity compared to a degree of despair about the petty point-scoring of the Labor and Liberal Parties who are too close to the big end of town.
Ms Putt warned that the other political parties would resort to ugly tactics of smear and fear against the Greens, but that this sort of behaviour was what was turning voters off.
“We are delighted that yet another poll is showing rising support for the Greens as people look for a positive, responsible approach to managing the future of Tasmania,” Ms Putt said.
“Certainly the feedback on the streets is encouraging, but we will be putting in a lot of hard work in the electorate to bring the promise of two new Greens MPs to fruition.”
The election of six Greens would see the addition of Cassy O’Connor, winning a second Greens seat in Denison, and of Paul O’Halloran in Braddon. The Greens currently hold seats in the Franklin, Bass, Lyons and Denison electorates, which they are expected to retain.
“The Greens have left the single issue tag well and truly behind as we advocate for all those people doing it tough who have been abandoned by Labor, especially on health and housing, whilst Lennon turns Tasmania into the gambling state and jumps into the pockets of the big end of town.”
“After combining to butcher the Parliament in 1998 Labor and Liberal actually made balance of power Parliaments more likely, but now this is on the cards I am warning Tasmanians to watch out for an ugly campaign of smear and fear being run against the Greens.”
“Ironically it is this ugliest side of politics, with its personal attacks and exaggerated claims that the sky will fall, that is turning people off the bigger parties towards the politics of hope generated by the Greens.”
“Our prescription for Tasmania’s economy of focus on small business and a clean, green and clever direction is finding favour as the desperate realities of competing in bulk commodities markets strike home. “
Earlier:
Hanging loose
PETER TUCKER:
My analysis shows that if an election was held in December, and swings were assigned to each electorate uniformly, then the result would be exactly the same parliament as we have now: a Labor majority government.
Read the rest:
HERE
And, HAG:
The Grand Coalition
