Richard Herr is right (The Party Political Dance) in describing the commissioning of government as being like pass the parcel. Labor will get stuck with the parcel. The question is, how does Labor get rid of it, and how hard is it prepared to play in creating a crisis to bring on another election?
If the Labor Party lost its majority, the Liberal Party refused to take office, and Lennon and any other possible Labor Leader (remember how Ray Grrom resigned in 1996) continued to refuse to take office, then it is entirely possible that a minority Green government could form. It was in similar circumstances that the first Labor governments formed in Queensland, Victoria and Tasmania at the start of last century.
However, in each case, the new government lasted little more than a week. A minority Green government could be allowed to form by the major parties as part of the process of proving the parliament was unworkable. It would almost certainly be terminated quickly by a vote of no confidence.
It is extremely unusual for a Governor to accept advice for an early election within a year of an election. If the Lennon government lost its majority and was bent on forcing a new poll in the hope of regaining its majority, it would require the engineering of a constitutional crisis.
One way would be to create havoc on electing a speaker. On first meeting, the House of Assembly must elect a Speaker before all other business. If Labor does not nominate a Speaker to preserve its numbers, the opposition may do so. If the Opposition does not, the Greens may, and as the only nominee, would be elected. However, the major parties could promptly vote them out in a no confidence or dissent motion. The whole process would then have to be repeated. There are precedents (Newfoundland 1908) of early elections brought on by the inability to elect a Speaker.
The second would be for the Labor government to recommend a new election, and on rejection of this advice, recommend the Governor ask the Liberal party to form government, and if the Liberals refuse, suggest the Greens. If the Greens accept, Labor would leap out of office as quickly as possible and work to bring down the new government. Once defeated, Labor would have achieved its constitutional goal of proving the Parliament unworkable, and only be prepared to re-accept office on the basis of agreement for an early election. How early an election would be a matter of negotiation.
If the Governor did not accept first advice from Labor for an early election, and a Green government was appointed and defeated, by convention the Governor would not grant the Greens a dissolution to govern until an election, but rather offer the reigns of office back to the Premier who first offered that advice. There are many Australian examples of governments knocked back for an early election, being handed back their commission and granted an election after the defeat of a short term government.
So, a full on constitutional crisis, and if both sides hold true to refusing to govern in a minority, it could produce a brief Green government.
We haven’t seen a one week administration since Victoria in the early 50s. The steps I outlined above are based on past constitutional precedent, but given we are today so unfamiliar with the processes, and there is such a pressure for stable government from the business community, it may be that the sequence of short-term governments may be side-stepped.
Antony Green is the ABC’s election analyst
What Peg reckons:
Media Release
Peg Putt MHA
Tasmanian Greens Opposition Leader
Thursday, 19 January 2006LIB-LAB COALITION MAKES GREENS THE REAL, OFFICIAL OPPOSITION
The Tasmanian Greens today responded to suggestions that Labor and Liberal form a coalition because of their similarity of policies, saying that this was not beyond the realm of possibilities and that the Greens had long dubbed them tweedledum and tweedledee.
Greens Opposition Leader Peg Putt MHA pointed out that such a coalition would see the Greens as the official Opposition party, a building block towards eventual government.
Labor and Liberal really are tweedledum and tweedledee on almost everything, so a coalition arrangement between them is not outside the realms of possibility, Ms Putt said.
The Greens have often been called the real opposition in the Tasmanian Parliament and if Labor and Liberal got together then we would be recognised as the official Opposition Party of the Parliament.
This would be another step towards eventual government and should not be ruled out.
At last the reality that political parties must be prepared to work together is being discussed as the constitutionally irresponsible notion of refusing what the voters deliver is exposed.
Multi-party government is an entrenched feature of government in Europe with a range of different coalitions and arrangements being the norm.
What Rene reckons:
Media Release
RENE HIDDING, MHA
Leader of the State Opposition
Thursday January 19, 2006
Liberals will govern in majority OR NOT AT ALL
Opposition Leader Rene Hidding today repeated for the benefit of those who still don’t understand that the State Liberals will govern in majority, or not at all.
“Every member of the State Liberal Team has signed a guarantee ruling out minority government with the Greens, or anyone else,” Mr Hidding said.
“Labor is still refusing to sign such a guarantee, and until they do, they are leaving open the strong possibility of forming a Labor-Green accord, which would be an unmitigated disaster for our State.
“Those suggesting a Labor-Liberal accord are living in fantasy land, as our guarantee rules out minority government with anyone.
“Labor is visionless, incompetent and has its priorities all wrong, with the Premier more interested in his special deals with his special friends than getting it right for all Tasmanians, while the Tasmanian Greens are irresponsible, reckless and anti-everything.
“The State Liberal Team has a Plan to get it right for all Tasmanians, young and old, and as Tasmanians come to properly understand our positive policy agenda, I have no doubt they will also come to understand that only a vote for the State Liberal Team is a vote for stable majority government.
