Bring it on. Please!

LET’S face it; whenever this Tasmanian House of Assembly general election is called, a whole bunch of Labor votes are going to end up somewhere else.

This outcome is largely self-evident, but let’s have a quick look at some of the factors which contribute to it:

* The Bacon Factor (1) — quite simply, a Lennon led Labor team contains a fraction of the electoral weight of that led by the late Jim Bacon. Labor was always on a hiding to nothing when next facing the polls following the death of the late premier.

* The Bacon Factor (2) — no matter where you sit on the political see-saw, the demise of the former minister for tourism Ken Bacon was untidy. Viewed in its best light, the unwell minister was found to be unfit for his duties and convinced to resign. There are other, less generous, interpretations of his departure from the government.

* The poorer than expected performance of SPOT III and the Auditor General’s criticism of the TT Line Board.

* The criticism of the Department of Health and Human Services’ Children & Families Division.

* The cosiness of the Government with the litigiously aggressive Gunns Ltd.

* Ralphs Bay, Basslink, Forests, Betfair, Farrell Family.

So, when Labor’s red line drops at the upcoming poll, it’s anybody’s guess what happens to the Liberal’s blue line and the green line of the votes cast previously for The Greens/Others.

But some interesting possibilities arise.

At the last state poll in 2002, the Liberals were seriously challenged by votes cast in favour of Greens and others, particularly in Denison and Franklin:

Whilst difficult to predict what may happen (in light of the above contest), it is a certainty that the Liberals and the Greens will be fighting for Labor’s lost support. In Denison and Franklin, that battle comes down to the past-performance and electoral support for the respective members. In Denison the focus will fall upon the merits of Hodgman, M. versus Putt. In Franklin; Hodgman, W. versus McKim.

The delicious irony exists, therefore, that Rene Hidding’s slim chances of premiership may depend upon his ability (and enthusiasm) to talk up the capabilities and successes of a major challenger for his job, and also the capabilities and successes of the father of the challenger.

In the absence of clear delineation between the policies of the two ‘traditional’ parties, the options they present to the voter start to resemble the choice between a migraine and a toothache.

In the stripped-back, super-efficient, 25-member house the only realistic alternative is green. Both the ‘traditionals’ refuse to contemplate minority government with the evil Greens. (God forbid that we may have ‘instability’!)

What chance then, of a Labor/Liberal coalition government?

Oh, the prospect …

Earlier,
Hag, soothsayer