Dr Kevin Bonham
Thus in my view the likely impact of the mill issue in Bass is a significant but not massive increase in the Green vote (perhaps into the mid-teens but no higher) and possibly a transfer of a point or two from the Coalition to Labor. Rather than deciding the seat it is more likely to blow out the margin, but if Ferguson loses narrowly it will be one of a number of factors contributing to his demise.
THE Tamar Valley pulp mill is supposed to be a major federal election issue, but will it actually have any great influence on Tasmanian seats?
Friday’s Newspoll of voters in Bass and Braddon made for very illuminating reading. Firstly, the sample size (500 in each seat) is not bad for a survey of specific seats, where inadequate 200-300 vote samples are alas much commoner. Secondly, it gives us a window on voter attitudes in the wake of Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s decision to conditionally approve the mill. Thirdly, it canvasses voter attitudes to Labor’s stance on the mill as well.
This makes it a useful contrast to the Essential Research poll commissioned by the Wilderness Society (Here), which surveyed 233 Bass and 259 Braddon voters. That poll was taken before Turnbull’s decision. It found that in Bass 27% said they were more likely to vote Liberal if the mill was stopped, while 6% were less likely to do so, and 69% said it would not affect their vote. For Braddon the figures were 14%, 11% and 72% respectively.
The Newspoll asked voters what affect the approval of the mill by Minister Turnbull would have on their vote. It found that in Bass, 10% would now be more likely to vote Liberal, 23% less likely, 65% no difference, while in Braddon the figures were 7%, 14% and 77% respectively.
The Newspoll on its own would be more reliable than the ER research for three reasons even if there was no great difference between the polls. Firstly its sample size is much larger, secondly it is more recent, and thirdly the company conducting it is more established and regarded in the field. (The Australian’s recent interpretations of their Newspolls, I should stress, have at times been eccentric and at others been worse than that, but the Newspolls themselves have shown similar patterns to other major polling companies). However, what is interesting is that the Newspoll now shows the pattern of attitudes has softened in Bass following Turnbull’s decision. There is a significant difference between the two polls in Bass that has seen the gap between anti-mill intentions and pro-mill intentions come down from 21% in the ER poll to just 13% in the Newspoll. (In Braddon, there is a move in the opposite direction from a 3% gap to a 7% gap, but it is not statistically significant and in any case the gap remains quite small.)
A further useful aspect of the Newspoll is that it shows that the attitude of voters towards the Liberal endorsement of the mill is almost identical to their attitude towards Labor’s agreeing with it. There is a slightly greater tendency for voters to equivocate about Labor’s support for the mill, meaning that slightly fewer voters are more inclined to either support or oppose the ALP. The gap between those more more likely to support and more likely to not support the ALP on account of its position on the mill is 13 points in Bass (the same as the Coalition) and six points in Braddon (one point less).
If we look at those strongly opposing the mill decision, there is just a whiff of a pattern that may favour the ALP over the Liberals. 19% in Bass and 11% in Braddon say they are a lot less inclined to vote Liberal over the mill approval, while the figures are 16% in Bass and 6% in Braddon for Labor. If these differences are meaningful and those claiming to be strongly disinclined to vote for a party on account of the mill are correctly representing their own voter behaviour, then maybe the Liberals could lose a point or two relative to the ALP on account of the mill. But unless the strongly-againsts for one party feel much more strongly than those for another, that is probably all there is to it.
The Newspoll also shows a Green vote of just 13% in Bass, compared to 18% in the ER poll. 13% is only five points up on what the party polled at the last election. Maybe the Newspoll is a little out and the Greens will poll a bit better than that, but what is significant about this is that of the at least 19% of voters who say they are much less inclined to vote for one major party or other on account of the mill, only a small proportion are intending to switch to the Greens. This leaves open several possibilities, and it is hard to say exactly what is going on without a more detailed breakdown of the Newspoll:
• Many of those claiming they are much less likely to vote for major parties could be existing Greens voters, who were either seriously considering voting for another party and are now not doing so, or who are overstating the impact of the issue on their likely vote.
• Those saying the issue makes them a lot less likely to vote for a given party are only talking about the difference between, say, 50% likely and 35% likely, or 20% likely and zero. Therefore, 19% of the electorate suggesting they have gone off the Liberals on this issue still only amounts to a handful of extra points to the Greens.
• There could be some swapping of support between the major parties over the issue. It seems strange that this could happen, but those who are inclined towards a major party vote but anti-mill may blame the Coalition more for approving it than Labor for going along with it to avoid being wedged. Conversely, a swinging voter who is anti-mill but leaning towards the Coalition for economic policy reasons might feel that Labor has failed to differentiate itself.
In any case, the mill shows little sign of impacting on the result between the major parties in Bass beyond perhaps a percentage point or two. That point or two could make the difference, but it certainly won’t if Labor is 14 points in front.
Pundits may assume that because Michael Ferguson remains so far behind in polling, the pulp mill must be the reason. This is not necessarily so. A large swing back to Labor throughout much of Tasmania has been on the cards anyway, primarily because of the reversal of the Latham forests policy disaster. Possibly Ferguson is losing simply because of that, while Braddon is less clearcut because of John Howard’s Mersey hospital intervention.
Thus in my view the likely impact of the mill issue in Bass is a significant but not massive increase in the Green vote (perhaps into the mid-teens but no higher) and possibly a transfer of a point or two from the Coalition to Labor. Rather than deciding the seat it is more likely to blow out the margin, but if Ferguson loses narrowly it will be one of a number of factors contributing to his demise.
I mentioned previously that in Braddon, where the gap between those expressing anti-mill sentiments in these polls and those expressing pro-mill sentiments is a small one, that the mill issue is unlikely to affect voters very much. The Newspoll findings concerning voter attitudes to Labor’s endorsement of Turnbull’s decision, combined with the low Green vote, further emphasise this point. In Braddon, the pulp mill is effectively now a non-issue. I also suspect that in Lyons, anti-mill sentiment around the impact zone would have been more than cancelled out by pro-mill sentiment in timber towns, had Ben Quin been the opponent. With Quin quitting, that aspect no longer applies, but the disunity created and lack of preparation time for the replacement candidate will certainly play into Labor’s hands anyway.
I wish to make one more comment on the Essential Research poll. The poll asked voters to indicate the importance to them of various issues in the electorate immediately after asking them questions about their views about the pulp mill. Obviously in this case the pulp mill is fresh in respondents’ minds when they are asked to rank issues and therefore they are more likely to rank it as an issue, hence exaggerating the importance of the issue compared to others. This is defective polling practice, and the fact that such an anti-mill skewing factor occurred in a poll sponsored by an anti-mill organisation is a cause for concern.
In my view, Malcolm Turnbull has done about the best he could have done to minimise the impact of a very uncomfortable issue on Tasmanian voter behaviour. Either a gung-ho final endorsement or any form of rejection of the mill would have left him open to a significant protest backlash. Instead a conditional approval backed by the Chief Scientist leaves the perception that opponents are arguing against either the science of the approval (and hence against the bureaucracy) or against the limits of the Commonwealth assessment process (and hence against that part of the process that is at state level.) If Bass does get closer and the Coalition loses it partly over the issue, then the fault is not Turnbull’s, but the local member’s for coming out in support of the mill too early.
Whether it is all enough to save Turnbull’s own seat is another question entirely.
Kevin Bonham is actually far more absorbed with the HCC elections than the federal variety at the moment but figures that if he is linked to on TT as a “specialist” on the federal election he had better contribute something! Something, of course, that represents his own views and not necessarily those of any other entity.
