In his PhD thesis (2002) on socioeconomic development and fertility: a case study of India, Dr. Singh of La Trobe University, Melbourne, presented the solution to a large population by creating and testing the framework for fertility decline in a highly populated county India.
His findings suggest: progress in female employment through female education would lead to adoption of family planning to enhance the most desired family size, also in remote areas where infant mortality is high; adoption of family planning ensures health care of a mother and child, through better health and welfare.
Testing the Indian dataset for the year 1992-93, National Family Health Survey, India Baljit came to the conclusion that (i) socio-economic development influences fertility directly through female education and employment, (ii) female education and employment also influences fertility indirectly through family planning programs, and (iii) fertility declines when infant mortality declines. Figure 1 shows the model set forth in the form of a path diagram along with the estimates of path coefficients.
The significant path coefficients are with asterisks. In other words, the degree of influence of each variable upon the others is, indicated by the path coefficient measured by standardised regression coefficients (betas) which indicate the relative strength of the direct influence of one variable on another.
The main rationale behind framing the above fertility deterministic model is that, it includes all the sub-models of fertility – structural, diffusion, and health and family planning programs.
Diffusion model: From social perspective, social transformation of the family through education can bring about fertility decline. In agricultural societies, children do not go to school, and therefore, they are the source of income, as a result, have more children means, more income. In the model, “female literacy” is an indicator of diffusion, which influences attitudes, values and beliefs towards favouring small family size and the knowledge, attitudes and practices of family planning. The fertility model (figure 1) suggests, of the four variables, female literacy appears to have a strong negative effect on fertility.
This supports the proposition that higher levels of female literacy in a society result in lower levels of fertility. This may be because female education contributes to marital postponement. The results also show that female literacy influences fertility indirectly via family planning performances. Specifically, female literacy has a substantial positive effect on family planning performance, and this in turn reduces fertility. Theoretically, increased female literacy facilitates better interpersonal communication between spouses on such matters as sex, family size, contraception and value of children, and contributes to small family desires and increased use of contraception. This helps reduce fertility.
Structural model: The structural model of fertility decline argues that fertility falls when societies undergo significant structural transformations – urbanization and industrialization; it erodes the motivation (especially economic) for large families by raising the costs and eroding economic benefits associated with children. Every additional child raises the opportunity cost of a working mother in terms of foregoing income by staying home and not participating in the labour force at least for some time during pregnancy and after.
This indirect cost or opportunity cost has a negative bearing on the decision of a working wife to have an additional child. The female employment variable in the model displays a direct effect upon family planning performance by inducing increased contraceptive use. However, it is of smaller magnitude. The possible explanation for this result could be the nature of employment itself. In developing countries, much of women’s traditional work – in agriculture, traditional crafts and petty retailing can be, combined with care of children, so that children involve no opportunity cost at all.
Family planning model: The occurrence of small family size among couples depends not only on their social and cultural norms and their attitude towards small family, but also on their use of a family planning program. The use of contraception reduces fertility by enabling couples to avoid childbearing. The strong influence of family planning performance (current use of contraception) on fertility is equally important in the model. Family planning performance affects contraceptive prevalence and fertility significantly and directly. It is reasonable to suggest that fertility would have been much higher in the absence of family planning. These results of the study are consistent with the widely accepted view that family planning programs have synergic effects on fertility.
Health model: From health perspective, high infant mortality (IMR) induces couples to have more children to replace those who have died. The effect of IMR on fertility appears relatively small in the present case. However, child survival programs need to be, intensified to produce further improvements in the level of infant and child mortality. More than one in 18 children dies within the first year of life in India, the 2005-2006 India’s National Family Health Survey suggests.
In a nutshell
Compulsory education for women and employment opportunities will improve their socio-economic condition, thus fertility. This is in accordance to earlier theories – the economic theory of fertility decline, theory of demographic transition, and Caldwell’s theory of wealth flow which emphasis on education which brings a social change conducive to population control and facilitation of socio-economic progress, although, poverty is seen to be the cause of millions of children and women at work in extremes of heat and cold.
Millions of men are on meager income. Globally, more than 162million children remain undernourished: The Millennium Development Report 2014. The services of factory workers are required in the factory, therefore, cannot be expected to work in the white-collar jobs earning handsome salaries, but their income can be raised so that they could live a better life.
Population control shall follow itself. More than population, unequal distribution of income – low income (poverty) is affecting human lives living on meagre income for years and years.
*Dr Baljit Singh, above, has a PhD in Economics from La Trobe University, Melbourne. He taught Tourism Economics for a good number of years at La Trobe University. Dr. Singh appreciates the contribution of all human beings, and suggests a better monetary reward for those whose pay is very low.
