Main image: Jack Lau 96
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Climate change ‘unprecedented’ by 2050: study
We have some idea of what the future may look like under climate change, and now, thanks to new research, we have a better idea of when. The research, published today in Nature, shows that the world’s climate will have fundamentally changed by 2050 if we do nothing to slow greenhouse gas emissions.
Experts warn of serious disruptions to ecological and social systems, particularly in the tropics and low-income countries.
The study compared two scenarios: a business-as-usual scenario with no emissions reductions, and a scenario with moderate emissions reduction. High emissions reductions weren’t included because they are currently considered unfeasible.
If we don’t act to reduce emissions, most of the world will experience unprecedented climate change by 2047. If we act to moderately reduce emissions the date is pushed back 20 years to 2069.
Unprecedented climate change means climate variables – such as temperature, evaporation and precipitation – that have moved permanently outside the range of historical variation.
We’re going to see more record-breaking heatwaves, and sooner than you might think.
Read more at: https://theconversation.com/climate-change-unprecedented-by-2050-study-19000
The human role in our ‘angry’ hot summer
The results were clear. When anthropogenic influences were included in the model simulations, the probability of warmer summer temperatures like 2013 were far higher. Indeed, it was very likely (with 90% confidence) that human influences increased the odds of extreme summers by at least five times.
The recent record summer was also notable because it occurred at a time when El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions were neutral to weakly La Niña. This typically produces cooler temperatures in Australia. Previously, six of the eight hottest Australian summers occurred during El Niño years. Our research shows that natural ENSO variations are unlikely to explain the record 2013 heat.
Read more at: https://theconversation.com/the-human-role-in-our-angry-hot-summer-15596
As climate changes, animals move fast to escape the heat
Animals are adapted to specific temperature ranges. As temperatures increase thanks to climate change, we predicted animals and plants would move up mountains as they attempted to remain at cooler temperatures. Eventually they would reach the top of the mountain and have nowhere else to go.
Unfortunately, our predictions are now starting to come true.
In our monitoring in the world heritage rainforests, we recently confirmed that at least 13 bird species and four species of ringtail possums have moved up the mountains in order to remain at cooler temperatures just as we predicted a decade earlier. Strikingly, their shifts are detectable over just 10 years with only a fraction of the temperature change that we will experience over coming decades.
Read more at: http://theconversation.com/as-climate-changes-animals-move-fast-to-escape-the-heat-18511
Adapt, move, or die: the pressures of global warming
We all know that weather is not the same as climate, but it is surprising how our perceptions of global warming vary according to what we see outside our window. In the UK for example, last year’s washed-out summer took the focus off global climate warming in many people’s minds – maybe the current heatwave will change that. But regardless of what may be happening in our back yards, the long term trend is one of warming – which it has done globally by an average of 0.74C˚ over the past century.
As the climate warms up, animals and plants have three main alternatives: they can either move to track the temperature, stay put and adapt to the warming, or die. Responding to variation in climate is not a new phenomenon for species – after all, many species responded to climate warming after the last ice ages.
Read more at: http://theconversation.com/adapt-move-or-die-the-pressures-of-global-warming-16340
Warning bells: what Antarctica can teach us about ocean acidification
When it comes to climate change, temperature is only part of the story. Climate gases released by human activity are dissolving into the oceans, and the increased levels of CO₂ are making the waters more acid. This process threatens marine life from coral reefs to fragile polar ecosystems. It seems likely that the polar oceans will be the first to feel the full force of ocean acidification. These cold seas may provide an important lesson for Australia’s warmer waters.
Read more at: http://theconversation.com/warning-bells-what-antarctica-can-teach-us-about-ocean-acidification-12933
