Transcription of an opinion piece in [i]The Examiner[/i], Wednesday 13 March 2013 by deputy editor, [b]Barry Prismall[/b].
The great dilemma facing the State Labor caucus as they plan their final year in office before the election is their survival, and how to buy it.
With the election due next March, the government has to move pretty soon to plot a path of pain and gain.
The decision making is brutally simple. In order to survive an expected electoral drubbing, through no greater reason than for being in power for too long [16 years], the current caucus will have to back a Greens push to increase the size of the House of Assembly.
The trouble is it will hand the Liberals yet another attack weapon to add to their formidable arsenal of reasons for a change in government. Even though the Liberals know in their hearts that a big part of the current mediocrity and crisis in state politics stems from the House being too small and the gene pool too narrow, they will campaign against it for the sake of a few cheap votes.
Based on recent polling, which is becoming remarkably consistent in pointing to a Labor wipe out, the Labor caucus would lose about five seats and be reduced to a rump next March. The Greens could even win more seats and become the official Opposition.
Short of few political miracles and the Will Hodgman melt down, the Liberals will romp it in. They are on track to win a majority, whether in a House of 25 or a House restored to 35 seats.
The difference for Labor is, that with a restored 35-seat House the current caucus would all keep their seats, but it doesn’t auger well for new Labor candidates, but bugger them. Survival is survival. When there’s only one life buoy available you get to know who you’re friends are.
The dilemma for Premier Lara Giddings is how to get back on the call for a bigger Parliament wagon without costing Labor even more grief. No amount of political science about the constitutional merits of a bigger Parliament will ever win over the battlers.
Political survival – even in opposition – means you’ve got to grab hold of the life buoy and never let go. Forget about the budget improving to make way for a bigger Parliament. Voters will never buy it, even in boom times.
Just legislate for an extra 10 MPs, the Liberals in government will never return to a smaller House, no matter how much they rant this year about the extra costs. Sometimes you’ve got to decide – and tell the voters it’s in their best interests – and yours!
