If the polls are to be believed (and there’s not cogent reason to reject them) both major parties are now led by people we find increasingly distasteful, so much so that we would far rather return to their predecessors – the men dumped by their respective factional bosses. Julia Gillard is now running a clear second to Kevin Rudd among the mass of voters, while Tony Abbott is even further behind Malcolm Turnbull.
In Gillard’s case just a third of those surveyed by the Nielsen poll want her as head of the ALP, four per cent less than plump for Rudd; her only consolation is that the front runners from the next generation, Greg Combet and Bill Shorten, are a long way behind on nine per cent each.
At first glance, Abbott’s position is even worse; not only is his net approval rating well down at minus nine (Gillard’s is now a flat zero) but Turnbull has 37 per cent support as leader to his own 31 per cent, and Joe Hockey is running a very respectable third with 25 per cent.
But the truth is that neither leader is in any immediate danger, because a lot of the surge for their rivals comes from those on the other side of politics. Among supporters of their own parties, Gillard and Abbott both have comfortable leads of 19 per cent, and in fact the advantage is even greater because they are elected not by their parties as a whole, but by their parliamentary party rooms.
In spite of Gillard’s awful polls, there is no inclination in the Labor caucus to return to Rudd; in his time as leader he made too many enemies and since being deposed he has made little attempt to mend the fences. Indeed, he has probably alienated the party room still further by maintaining a high public profile; for Rudd to be so clearly relishing his role as foreign minister and making such a success of it is seen almost as a mark of disloyalty at time when his successor continues to flounder in the role of prime minister.
And Abbott is even safer; while he may be personally on the nose with the electorate, his party as a whole is not; the same polls show that the coalition’s lead over Labor is actually widening as Abbott’s own popularity shrinks. With an eight point lead after preferences, the Libs are not about to move for a spill. So much as we may dislike them and prefer their eagerly available alternatives we are stuck with the odd couple for the foreseeable future.
And that’s the good news.
The bad news is …
Mungo Wentworth MacCallum is a political journalist and commentator.
